With the results of the Super Tuesday primaries known,
and the subsequent withdrawals of Nikki Haley and
Dean Phillips from their presidential races, the nominees
of the two major parties, as selected by the voters, are
now known.
The unanimous decision of the U.S. Supreme Court
preventing any nominee from being excluded from a
state ballot, means that both the major parties/ tickets
will appear on all state ballots.
But three major questions remain.
First, the Supreme Court has agreed to hear former
President Donald Trump’s appeal claiming immunity
from prosecution on April 25. Other appeals on specific
indictments of Trump are pending. Should the Court
agree to the immunity claim, most prosecutions of
Trump would cease. if the Court denies immunity, the
trials would proceed, but even if they do, it is uncertain
if they can occur or be concluded before election day
in November.
The second question is whether or not President Joe
Biden will withdraw before or during the Democrat's
convention. He is under major pressure to so because
of persisting low favorability in almost all polling, and
the desire of a great many Democratic voters for a
younger nominee.
The third question is what many unhappy Democrats,
Republicans and independents will do if the ballot
in November is Biden vs. Trump. Will they vote for third
party candidates? Will they stay home, or vote only in
down-ballot races?
The past week has answered some major questions,
but as noted previously, key questions remain.
Several House and Senate primaries were also held
on Super Tuesday. The one Senate primary that
attracted much attention was in California where
two separate races for the same seat were on the
ballot. The first was to fill the seat of the late Diane
Feinstein from the election to January, 2025; and
the second was for the full six-year term beginning
in 2025. (A gubernatorial appointee currently holds
the seat.)
Because there are many more registered
Democrats than Republicans in California, it has
been widely assumed to be a safe liberal seat in
November, and three major Democrats announced
they were running. California has so-called “jungle
primaries’ in which the two top votegetters, even
if in th same party, are on the ballot in November.
Initially it was thought no Republican would make
it to the November ballot, but retired local major
league baseball star Steve Garvey entered the race
late, and without political advertising, surged to tie
frontrunner Congressman Adam Schiff on one
ballot and beat him by 200,000 votes on the other
ballot.
Political experts have been writing that Garvey’s
primary success doesn’t matter because there
will be many more Democrats voting in California in
November. But celebrity Garvey will have millions
to spend now to November, and Schiff cannot take
this race for granted. Like recent developments in
Maryland and New Mexico Senate races, California
is a previously a safe seat, Democrats will now have
to take seriously.
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Copyright( (c) 2024 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.
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