The most significant Republican win in 2022
(an election year mostly disappointing for them)
was the retaking control of the U,S, House of
Representatives The margin was small, but
enough to end the reign of Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Under the new GOP speaker, Kevin McCarthy, a
period of some political balance returned to the
nation’s capital.
But the slim conservative majority was severely
handicapped by unruly division which eventually
brought down McCarthy and turned the lower
house into what it is today —- a dysfunctional
political jumble.
Some frustrated members (including McCarthy)
have not only chosen not to run for re-election,
but to resign now — with the result that the G0P
majority is down to only one seat. This virtually
guarantees that nothing of consequence will
come from what remains of this session.
Thus, the now likely success of the GOP to
retake control of the U.S. Senate next January
might well be the reverse in its efforts to keep
control of the U.S. House.
For most of their history, the political parties’
membership held a certain range within the
party’s overall ideological direction, including
opposing views on abortion and other so-called
“hot button” issues.
Today, this range is much less tolerated by party
activists. and particularly in thr GOP House
caucus. (A major reason why Republicans look
strong in 2024 senate races is that it supports
more moderate nominees in states where hard-line
conservative views are not popular.)
The larger body, the House, is much more likely
to elect moderates of both parties because of the
wide range of congressional districts across the
country.
Former Speaker Pelosi ran her narrow caucus
majority with extreme discipline. The Republicans,
if they have a small majority again in the next
session, will have to learn how to do the same.
Another session like the current one would almost
certainly lead to defeat of many GOP nominees in
subsequent elections.
Unlike GOP prospects in the Senate, the House
results in 2024 are much less clear. Retirements
in both parties continue — already a very large
number of open seats will be contested in
November. Some district lines have yet to be
finallly determined, and several party nominees
have yet to be chosen.
The presidential election also looms heavily over
the 2024 cycle.Many voters, unhappy with both
now-presumptive nominees, might well not vote
in the election, making polling misleading and
predictions of close races useless.
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Copyright (c) 2024 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.
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