Saturday, March 30, 2024

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Dysfunction Or Discipline In U.S. House in 2025?

The most significant Republican win in 2022

(an election year mostly disappointing for them) 

was the retaking control of the U,S, House of 

Representatives The margin was small, but

enough to end the reign of Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Under the new GOP speaker, Kevin McCarthy, a

period of some political balance returned to the

nation’s capital.

But the slim conservative majority was  severely

handicapped by unruly division which eventually

brought down McCarthy and turned  the lower

house into what it is today —- a  dysfunctional

political jumble.    

Some frustrated members (including McCarthy)

have not only chosen not to run for re-election,

but to resign now — with the result that the G0P

majority is down to only one seat. This virtually

guarantees that nothing of consequence will

come from what remains of this session.   

Thus, the now likely success of the GOP to

retake control of the U.S. Senate next January

might well be the reverse in its efforts to keep

control of the U.S. House.

For most of their history, the political parties’

membership held a certain range within the 

party’s overall ideological direction, including

opposing views on abortion and other so-called

“hot button” issues.

Today, this range is much less tolerated by party

activists. and particularly in thr GOP House

caucus. (A major reason why Republicans look

strong in 2024 senate races is that it supports 

more moderate nominees in states where hard-line 

conservative views are not popular.)

The larger body, the House, is much more likely

to elect moderates of both parties because of the

wide range of congressional districts across the


Former Speaker Pelosi ran her narrow caucus

majority with extreme discipline. The Republicans,

if they have a small majority again in the next

session, will have to learn how to do the same.

Another session like the current one would almost

certainly lead to defeat of many GOP nominees in

subsequent elections.

Unlike GOP prospects in the Senate, the House

results in 2024 are much less clear. Retirements

in both parties continue — already a very large

number of open seats will be contested in 

November. Some district lines have yet to be

finallly determined, and several party nominees

have yet to be chosen.

The presidential election also looms heavily over

the 2024 cycle.Many voters, unhappy with both

now-presumptive nominees, might well not vote

in the election, making polling misleading and

predictions of close races useless.


Copyright (c) 2024 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.


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