With less than two months to go, most media political
attention is on the presidential and high profile U.S.
Senate and House races. But it is a national election
cycle, and numerous other state and local races are
taking place, too.
A few of these other races have outsized importance
because they not only impact their own districts, but also
will determine bigger outcomes.
One such race is the special state senate contest in
Minnesota’s suburban District 45. While all of Minnesota’s
state house seats are on the ballot this November, none
of its state senate seats are up for election. That is,
with one exception. The state Democratic Party (DFL)
had a one-seat majority in the state senate (34-33), that
with its control of the state house and the governorship,
gave them effective control (sometimes called a trifecta)
of the executive and legislative branches, as well as the
sole power ro appoint state judges.
However, the state’s Third District Congressman Dean
Phillips ran a maverick race for president this year,
contrary to the wishes of his party’s establishment, and
when he lost in the primaries, he decided to retire from
politics and not run for re-election. This created an
unexpected open congressional seat this November.
One of the DFLers who decided to run for the open
seat was State Senator Kelly Morrison. She resigned
her state senate seat to campaign for Congress, and
she eventually won the DFL nomination in the recent
primary.
Her resignation left the state senate tied between the
DFL and the state Republican Party. A special election
was set for this November to fill the vacancy. S.D. 45
elected Morrison over her GOP opponent 56% to
44% two years ago in a favorable DFL cycle and no
presidential election. In a presidential cycle, and
with notable backlash to DFL policies outstate and in
the suburbs, and with so much at stake, this race is
likely to be competitive.
Businesswoman Kathleen Fowkes won the Republican
nomination in the primary just held, The governorship
is not on the ballot in 2024, and Republicans face an
uphill battle to win a majority in the state house.
On the other hand, the GOP needs to win only this
one state senate race to take control of that body,
and have a brake on what conservatives consider to
be a recent outpouring of radical legislation and
policies.
Former state legislator Ann Johnson Stewart won
the DFL nomination in her party’s recent primary.
DFLers. of course, are highly motivated to keep the
seat, and maintain their control of state government.
Minnesota, in recent years, has been a reliably blue
(DFL) state, but the party’s winning margins have
narrowed recently as GOP (red state) voters, especially
in rural and suburban areas, have increasingly
opposed the DFL agenda.
Polls indicate that the presidential race is narrowing
in Minnesota —- although the Democrat’s nominee
has won the state in every election since 1976.
The race for the open state senate seat might be
the most interesting Minnesota race to watch on
November 5th.
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Copyright (c) 2024 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.