The 2024 presidential primary voters' role is
meaningfully over, even before most of the
primaries have taken place. The result in
South Carolina only reinforrced this reality as
Republican voters overwhelmingly rejected the
only remaining GOP challenger, Nikki Haley,
solidifying presumptive conservative nominee,
former President Donald Trump.
No serious challenger to President Joe Biden in
the other major party contest even entered the
race as the Democrats’ establishment prevented
any potential major candidate from even
challenging the incumbent.
The voters likely will have little, if any, final say
on who the nominees will be. From here, those
determinations will be settled in various court
rooms, including the one occupied by nine U.S.
Supreme Court justices; and in private discussions
of party leaders.
The announcement by Nella Domenici that she is
running for the U.S. Senate seat in New Mexico
currently held by Democrat Martin Heinrichs, was
the second blow in a week to the already shaky
prospects for Democrats to keep control of the
Senate in 2025. The daughter of long-time New
Mexico senator, the lat Pete Domenici, she puts
the race, previously rated “safe Democrat, in play,
adding still another incumbent to face a tough
race. Earlier, the open but usually safe Maryland
seat held by retiring Democrat Ben Cardin also
put in play when popular former GOP Governor
Larry Hogan announced his candidacy in usually
liberal Maryland. Now ten incumbent seats
held by Democrats are in varying stages of
With district boundaries still not finally settled In
some key states, the prospects of the Republicans
to keep control of the U.S. House is very murky.
Their margin of control is now barely enough, due
to sudden retirements and the loss of a seat in a
recent New York special election. The divisiveness
that brought down Speaker Kevin McCarthy earlier
in the year has returned to endanger the brief
speakership of his successor, Mike Johnson, and
the GOP goes into the 2024 campaign, with all
435 seats on the ballot, lacking a unified message,
Many incumbent Democrats will be retiring, and
some of them leave vulnerable seats in their wake.
Both sides face the chaos ar rhe top of their
tickets that could keep notable numbers of usually
reliable Democrats and Republicans at home —
making traditional polling less useful than normal,
and further blurring the political picture at a time
when it usually begins to focus.
Copyright (c) 2024 by Barry Casselman. All rightd reserved.