What has changed since President Joe Biden
withdrew from the 2024 presidential race?
Obviously, the name at the top of the Democrats'
ticket is now the former running mate and incumbent
vice president. Shortly, there will be a new running
mate, but the record and policies to be debated
will be much the same.
Joe Biden will remain in office until January 20 of
next year. While Kamala Harris presents a new
personality, she must now defend the administration
she was part of during the past three-plus years.
As President Lyndon Johnson demonstrated in 1968
when he suddenly withdrew from his re-election
effort, and was replaced with his vice president,
Hubert Humphrey, his presence and policies act as
a constraint on his replacement.
Although the establishment print and broadcast
media have begun, as expected, a massive effort
to promote Harris in her new role, as the party
establishment has coalesced around her —-
permitting no serious opposition to her nomination
as they permitted none against Biden inthe 2024
primaries, the political environment has been
upended by the sudden realization that both the
party and the media had deceived the public about
the president’s deterioration until the debate with
Donald Trump.
The political opponents to Mr, Biden, of course,
already knew because their media venues had
repeatedly shown video after video making his
frail condition irrefutably clear.
The reality is that the Democrats’ base and the
Republicans’ base are going to vote for their
party’s ticket. What possible change that can occur
between now and Election Day would take place
among undecided voters, most of whom are
independents,
A big question that remains concerns what
dissatisfied Democrats and Republicans will do.
This election an unusually large number of
relatively well-known third party candidates will be
on most ballots, most notably Robert Kennedy, Jr.
As long as Joe Biden was at the top of his party”s
ticket, Democrats were increasingly pessimistic
about 2024. His departure from the race has given
them hope, for now. and re-energized many of
them. But many Democrats would have preferred
another nominee, and certainly would have
preferred to have some say in the choice. Both
Biden initially, and now Harris, have been
imposed on the ticket by the party establishment.
If after the current honeymoon period, Harris does
turn out to be a disappointing candidate, the
voters’ buyer’s remorse could be devastating on
Election Day.
Bur all is not rosy for the Republicans. They risk
not only overconfidence, as happened in 2022,
it is possible that Kamala Harris will turn out to be
a much better candidate than she was in the past.
In that case, the race might well become closer
than it appears now.
A new Rasmussen Poll, a poll which has a very
good track record, shows Trump leading Harris by
seven points, with third party candidates included.
Other recent polls show Trump leading or tied by
smaller margins in the key toss-up states of Georgia,
Pennsylvania, Virginia., Michigan, Wisconsin,
Minnesota, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona and
New Mexico. The 2024 election will be decided
in these states —- all of which were, except for
North Carolina, carried by Biden in 2020.
To paraphrase the old saying, things have changed,
but remain much the same. With little more than
three months to go, the question is will there be
more change or more of the same on Election Day.
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Copyright (c) 2024 by Barry Casselman. All rights. reserved.
