The current polling trend indicating voters shifting to
Republican candidates in many, but not all, races
across the country is just that — a speculative trend
and not necessarily what will be decided when the
the ballots are cast and counted.
The American electorate is in a volatile state, trying
to absorb and adjust to a post-pandemic period,
significant inflation, an unsettled stock market,
challenges to societal institutions, general economic
uncertainty, and an unstable global environment.
There is an entire industry dedicated to trying to
influence voters and predict what they will do, and it
includes not only the campaign organizations of the
contesting candidates, but also their political parties;
independent political action committees (PACs); the
media and its reporters, editorialists, and practicing
pundits; various political consultants and advisers,
ad designers, printers and sign makers; and various
political meeting venues.
Republicans are no doubt cheered by so many
election races now being “in play,” competitive or
toss-ups, but in spite of current momentum, few of
these close races are truly yet decided. Democrats
could ultimately win many of these contests.
As a case in point, the trend in recent days in
Minnesota has been favorable to the GOP, with
the statewide races, according to credible polls,
considered as toss-ups. But the Democratic
Party (Democratic-Farmer-Labor or DFL) has a
strong urban voter base and an outstanding
get-out-the-voter (GOTV) organization to get its
voter to the polls. While Republicans dominate
rural and exurban areas of the state, the DFL
majorities in Minneapolis and St. Paul, in
recent years, have overcome outstate GOP
majorities. Will 2022 be different? Will
Republican campaign efforts in Minneapolis
and St. Paul — and in particular, with minority
communities, make gains this cycle? Will DFL
efforts outstate make gains for them? Which
voters will be most motivated to go to the polls?
No one knows with any certainty the answer
to these questions until the votes are counted.
My message to everyone is don’t presume
outcomes, even this close to Election Day.
Copyright (c) 2022 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.