Tuesday, July 28, 2020

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Biden's Veep Soon?

Putative Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s vice presidential
choice will likely be made and announced in the next two weeks.
Because he indicated (but did not pledge) he would select a
woman of color, most speculation has been about a number of
black elected women across the country --- although the
Hispanic governor of New Mexico, Michelle Lujan Grisham,
and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, have been
regarded among the dozen or so finalists. Congresswoman
Karen Bass of California is only the latest of a  number of 
mostly hitherto nationally-unknown black women politicians
to be touted for the job.

Trying to second-guess a nominee’s running mate choice is a
difficult matter, and my own record is very mixed at best. I did
write that Joe Biden was Barack Obama’s best choice in the
summer of 2008, but more often than not, I got it wrong over
the years, and in 2016 I did not even try very hard.

This cycle, the Democratic vice presidential nominee is
arguably more important than usual, presumably because Mr.
Biden would be 78 in 2021.

Several months ago, after Biden’s nomination was assured, I
wrote that California Senator Kamala Harris was the most
likely choice. This was before Mr. Biden took an apparent lead
in his race against President Trump. Others predicted Biden
would throw a “Hail Mary” with a lesser-known figure in an
effort to catch up. Well-known figures such as Oprah Winfrey,
Michelle Obama, and Susan Rice were also mentioned.

Since that time, many in the media and most pollsters have
asserted that Mr. Trump is now behind. (whether this is
true, and if so, by how much, is a separate discussion, but for
now this is the conventional wisdom).

Assuming that the Biden campaign agrees that they are indeed
ahead, I think a “Hail Mary” veep choice is quite unlikely.
When ahead, it is psychologically difficult to risk one’s
advantage with controversy. The natural inclination is to go
with safe choices. Senator Harris is that perhaps more than
anyone else --- a former presidential candidate. a black woman,
young, and acceptable to most wings of her party.

Having said that, in this unpredictable year, the final choice
could be someone else.

But whomever the final choice is, they will be subjected to
many days of scrutiny, especially about their ability to assume
the presidency on short notice.

An abbreviated national convention will than take place in
Milwaukee, followed by the traditional Labor Day campaign
kick-off, the presidential and vice presidential debates --- and
the next thing you know, it’s election day!

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Copyright (c) 2020 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: "Safe" Seat Up For Grabs?

The Fifth congressional district of Minnesota includes the
city of Minneapolis and some of its upscale suburbs, and it
is one of the safest Democratic seats in the nation. The
incumbent is Ilhan Omar, a Somali-born first-termer, who
won the seat in 2018 when the then-incumbent retired to run
for state attorney general at the last moment. Controversies
about her political views and personal life have surrounded
Ms. Omar from the outset, and became magnified as she
joined a group of four known as the “The Squad” in
Congress, each of which spoke out with views from the far
left of their party on both domestic and international issues.

Nevertheless, MN-5 is one of the most liberal urban districts
in the nation, and her advocacy of Medicare For All , Green
New Deal, and ceaseless criticism of President Trump, for
examples, seemed to reflect the views of a majority of
voters in the district, and it was expected that she would
easily be re-elected in 2020.

A number of candidates filed against her in the Democratic
(in Minnesota called the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party or
DFL), but the opposition to Ms. Omar appears to have
coalesced behind Antone Melton-Meaux, a respected black
attorney and self-described lifelong progressive Democrat,
who felt, noting Ms. Omar frequently missed House votes,
she was a detriment to the interests of the district’s residents.
With his own attractive family (his wife is a prominent local
surgeon), he cites his community activism, including working
with foster children and as a volunteer minister at a social
justice church.

Melton-Meaux has significantly out-raised Omar for campaign
funding,  Also, am independent PAC is mailing out a steady
stream of sophisticated campaign literature to voters in the
district --- literature which constantly reminds them of Omar’s
unpopular controversies.

Although there is a Republican primary and candidate, a
significant number of GOP voters could opt to choose the
DFL primsry ballot to vote against Omar. Republicans usually
provide 25-30% of the district vote. MN-5 has the largest
number of Jewish voters in any state district, primarily in the
Minneapolis suburbs. Most of them vote DFL, and most of
them voted for Omar in 2018, but after her steady stream of
anti-Israel comments, many of them are more likely to vote in
2020 for Melton-Meaux.

Because of Omar’s national notoriety, local observers point
out, this race has drawn increasing national attention and
campaign funding for both major candidates.

One of the strengths of the DFL in urban areas is its Get Out
The Vote (GOTV) organization. In a primary such as this one,
however, the DFL is likely to have a good turnout --- but it
might not be clear if the effort is turning out Melton-Meaux
voters or Omar voters. As well, the challenger’s supporters
might be more energized to vote. On the other hand, most
DFL leaders are at least publicly supporting incumbent Omar
(even if they have private doubts about her). and are now
scrambling to help her.

With less than three weeks until the primary, incumbent Omar
remains the favorite to win renomination, but her challenger
Melton-Meaux appears to be rising fast with an increasingly
formidable campaign. Only days ago, his chances
seemed impossible, but with less than a month to go, a grass
roots political storm appears to be forming.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright (c) 2020 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, July 14, 2020

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: The Shapes Of The Lines

There are very few straight lines in Nature, and in human activity.
Yes, there are cycles, seasons, orbits, rhythms, patterns and other
repetitions, but almost always the world provides a series of
jagged ups and downs, and curving sideways variations.

I have observed these variations to be especially relevant to the
phenomenon known as American politics. The majority of races in
a national election, including those for the U.S. house, senate,
governorships and seats in state legislatures, are not competitive.
That’s because most incumbents win or because most districts
are made up of voters who mainly support one political party.

Presidential elections are often competitive, as are always s certain
number of all the races. Those which are close, in normal times,
do not proceed in  straight lines, but their candidates have ups and
downs throughout the campaign cycle. Undecided voters often
don’t pay attention to a specific race until October or later. Polls,
unless rigorously taken with likely voters and good samples,
rarely are useful.

That’s in normal times.

In a cycle such as the 2020 election, the normal uncertainties are
magnified.

At the outset, more than a year ago, it appeared that a booming
economy would see the re-election of President Trump, but that
control of he U.S. house would remain Democratic, and that
control of the U.S. senate was up for grabs. Then the pandemic
occurred, and all likelihoods became uncertainties. Shutdowns,
quarantines and the upheaval of social activity preoccupied
voters, and the political environment was complicated by urban
unrest and violence. In recent weeks, media polling has suggested
a negative impact on the Trump campaign and many, but not all,
Republican candidates. Establishment media trumpets this as a
virtually certain victory for Joe Biden and the Democrats coming
in November. In fact, such a victory could happen, but I suggest
it will not happen because a few premature polls and a few pundits
said so four months before election day.

I suggest both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as well as competitive
candidates of both parties in other races, have a few more ups and
downs ahead --- and before votes are cast.

The key to any competitive election is the timing of their campaign
on the day the votes are cast. A candidate wants to be moving up
then, and his or her opponent moving down. That’s obvious to say,
but often difficult to perform, especially in a volatile environment.

Just as in 2016, some voters who intend to vote for Mr. Trump
seem reluctant to tell pollsters their choice, or even to be
interviewed. It doesn’t take very many of these to seriously
distort a poll. Few Biden supporters apparently have this
reluctance. If the election is a blow-out, this won’t matter, but
there is no evidence yet of a landslide election for either party.

In 2016, it should be recalled, most Democrats and many
Republicans thought that Hillary Clinton would win --- as late
as one hour AFTER the polls in he eastern states closed. It might
be, as I have said, a different story in 2020, but we  are not going
to know this until the votes are being counted.

As I wrote repeatedly for 2016, be wary of premature outcomes in
the 2020 election. Much is yet to be said --- and to happen.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright (c) 2020 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, July 8, 2020

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Ten More Amazing Events From History You Probably Didn't Know About

[The items below appeared in earlier form previously on The Prairie Editor]
     
1.   ONE OF THE OLDEST ETHNIC GROUPS IN
      EUROPE HAS NOT EVER HAD ITS OWN
      NATION. THE RUSYNS (OR CARPATHO-RUSYNS)
      SPEAK THEIR OWN LANGUAGE, AND HAVE A
      DISTINCT RELIGIOUS AND CULTURAL
      HERITAGE. An ancient people who have lived in
      the area around the Carpathian Mountains in
      central Europe for the past thousand years, the
      Rusyn lands have been part of Russia, Ukraine,
      Austro-Hungary, Slovakia, Poland and Romania.
      In 1919, after World War I, various Rusyn leaders
      traveled to the Versailles Conference in Paris to
      plead for their own nation, but were denied. Today,
      many of the world’s 4 million Rusyns live in the U.S.,
      a number of whom are celebrities. The most famous
      was  the artist Andy Warhol.
     [Further reading: The People From Nowhere by Robert Magocsi]

 2.  THE MOST CELEBRATED SPY OF WORLD WAR II
      WAS A CATALAN WHO HAD TO SIGN UP FIRST AS 
      A NAZI AGENT IN ORDER TO BE CONSIDERED 
      BY BRITISH INTELLIGENCE AS THEIR DOUBLE
      AGENT.  Juan Pujols, known universally by the cover
      name “Garbo,” devised and implemented the
      greatest military deception in modern history by
      fooling Hitler and the German Wehrmacht to think
      the primary Allied invasion of Europe in 1944 would
      be at Calais and not at Normandy. Even three
      months after D-Day, “Garbo” persuaded the Nazis
      to hold vital divisions at Calais, waiting for an
      imaginary army invasion that did not come, and
      many consider Garbo’s efforts were a vital part of
      D-Day’s ultimate success. When Pujols fled Spain at
      the outset of World War II, and tried to join the British
      as a spy. he was turned away. Only when he joined the
      Nazi Gestapo, did the Brits take him on as a  double agent.
      [Further reading: Agent Garbo by Steven Talty]

3.  THE FIRST SCIENTIST TO CONCEIVE THE
     THERMONUCLEAR REACTION IN HYDROGEN,
     A DISCOVERY THAT LED DIRECTLY TO THE
     H-BOMB, WAS NOT AN AMERICAN, NOR A
     GERMAN NOR ANY EUROPEAN. The first physicist 
     to do so was, ironically, the Japanese physicist
     Togutaru Hagiwara who revealed his discovery at
     lecture in Kyoto in May 1941, seven months before
     Pearl Harbor. Although the first H-bomb was not
     exploded until 1954, Hagiwara, in a further irony,
     was also a pioneer in the theories which led to the
     first A-bomb being exploded over Hiroshima in 1945.
    [Further reading: The Making of the Atomic Bomb by Robert 
         Rhodes]   

 4. ARAMAIC WAS THE ACTUAL LANGUAGE OF THE
     OLD TESTAMENT. Although Hebrew and Arabic are
     today derived from it, Aramaic is still a living language for
     about two million Assyrians, a Christian people who
     live in Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq where they have
     faced persecution for centuries. (A senior member of
     the U.S. house of representatives, Anna Eshoo of
     California, is the only Assyrian-American in
     Congress. 

5. JEFFERSON DAVIS’S FOLLY: THE U.S. CAMEL CORPS
In 1853, then U.S. Secretary of War Jefferson Davis of
Mississippi proposed that camels be employed for
transportation in the southwestern frontier. Seventy camels
were then imported from Egypt to form the U.S. Camel Corps
which had some little success prior to the Civil War, although
the camels reportedly were difficult to manage.  By 1858, the
project was abandoned, and the camels were then only used
for military purposes. The last known camel reconnaissance
was conducted by the then U.S. army commander in Texas,
General Robert E. Lee in 1860. After the Civil War, the U.S.
camel experiment was abandoned, probably in part because
of its association with the two despised leaders of the
Confederacy. All camels were sold at auction,and as late as
the turn of the century, feral (wild) camels were reported to be
sighted in the  arid plains and deserts of the American West.

6. PENNIES USED TO BE THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS, AND TWO CENT, THREE CENT AND
TWENTY CENT COINS USED TO BE LEGAL
Prior to 1856, the U.S. copper one cent piece was approximately
the size of a half dollar. In 1856, the smaller “penny” was
introduced with a flying eagle on its obverse, and in 1859, it was
replaced with the “Indian head” obverse. In 1909, on the
centenary of Abraham Lincoln’s birth, the “Lincoln cent” (with
an obverse still in use) was introduced. Also in the mid-19th
century, experiments in other coinage denominations were tried,
including both silver and nickel three cent pieces, a copper
two cent piece and a silver twenty cent piece. All were legal
tender, but did not prove popular. Today, they are collector’s
items.

7. THE FIRST MODERN SUMMER FESTIVAL
WAS BEGUN IN WESTERN NEW YORK
The first modern American “summer festival” was opened in
1876 at a site on Lake Chautauqua in western New York, a few
miles east of Erie, Pennsylvania. On land that became known as
the Chautauqua Institution, the venue was created by Protestant
religious leaders who wanted to hold a summer event of serious
religious and aesthetic discussion and presentations of the
performing arts. It quickly caught on, first in the region (drawing
visitors from Cleveland, Erie, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Rochester)
and then nationally, as world famous theologians, philosophers,
political leaders and famed artistic figures spoke and performed
to large crowds in the “gated” community which featured
Victorian-styled homes, cottages, hotels and boarding houses.
Soon, “Chautauquas,” or local religio-cultural summer events
began appearing all over America, and the word “chautauqua”
became a word in the dictionary. From the early 20th century on,
the Chautauqua Institution season became a notable site for
major addresses by U.S. presidents and presidential candidates.
President Franklin Roosevelt made his famous “I hate war” speech
there, and more recently, President Bill Clinton spoke in the
legendary Chautauqua ampitheater. In the 1930‘s, Chautauqua
provided a haven for many of the world’s most famous musicians
fleeing Nazi persecution, including the composer Arnold
Schoenberg. The Institution’s largest hotel, The Athenaeum, is a
magnificent example of grand Victorian architecture, and has
been seen in several motion pictures.

8. A FILM WITH 300,000 EXTRAS
Until Gandhi was released, the world record for the number
of extras in a film was a 1954 Soviet folk tale film with its
battle scene using 106,000 extras. The funeral scene for the
epic about the life of the famed Indian figure, however, used
300,000 extras, of which 200,000 were volunteers and about
100,000 were paid a small fee.

9. JASCHA HEIFTEZ PLAYED THOUSANDS OF
CONCERTS, BUT ONCE STOOD UP AN AUDIENCE
BECAUSE HIS MOTHER DIDN’T LIKE THE HALL
Jascha Heifetz was one of the world’s two greatest classical
violinists, and arguably the most famous. From his debut in
St. Petersburg, Russia at the age of five until his death in
1982, Heifetz literally performed in recitals, concerts and
recordings thousands of times in cities large and small
across the globe. On January 12, 1922, he was scheduled for a
recital at the historic Park Opera House in Erie, PA.  By that
time, Heifetz was world renowned, and all of his affairs were
handled by his parents (since he was not yet 21 years old). The
group which arranged the recital in Erie had a contract for the
space now renamed the Park Theater, but the demand for
tickets was so great that the event was moved to the Erie
Arena several blocks away. Instead of the few hundred which
the Park Theater could accommodate, the Erie Arena had
a capacity for 2500, and it was sold out. Heifetz’s piano
accompanist, Samuel Chotzinoff (he later became a major
U.S. music figure, and was personally responsible for
persuading Arturo Toscanini to come to America and conduct
the NBC Symphony), was sent to check out the original venue,
but was told the concert was moved. After then visiting the
Erie Arena (where boxing matches were  sometimes held), he
reported back to Heifetz’s manager-mother Anna who was
the third person in the entourage. Claiming her son would be
humiliated by appearing where prizefighters fought, she
adamantly refused to let Heifetz perform. Some contemporary
observers suggested that the real issue was money --- that
Mrs. Heifetz wanted a share of the bigger crowd revenue, but
the bottom line was that Heifetz didn’t play. The story has a
happy ending, however. On March 1 and 2, 1949, the great
violinist returned to Erie to play with the Erie Philharmonic
under its conductor Fritz Mahler (nephew of the composer).
A violinist in the orchestra reported later that the virtuoso’s
playing was “so perfect and inspiring that we played better
than we ever have, before or since.”

10. THE GREATEST BASEBALL BATTER
IN HISTORY COULD HAVE BEEN ONE OF
THE GREATEST PITCHERS
Most will agree that Babe Ruth was the greatest baseball
player ever, and he achieved his fame from his great
prowess with the bat, hitting far more home runs than
anyone else until recent times, and for having one of the
highest lifetime batting averages ever. But Ruth did not
begin his career as a batter. For the Boston Braves, he was
an ace starting pitcher. He even won 23 games in 1916 and
and 24 games in 1917. His lifetime pitching record was
93-46, and he pitched primarily for only six seasons. (He
pitched only five games for the Yankees and won all of
them.) But in one of the most disastrous and one-sided
trades in baseball history, the cash-strapped Braves
sold Ruth’s contract to the New York Yankees in 1920. In
his new home, Ruth quickly became a batter and fielder,
and changed the sport indelibly with home runs and his
iconic public personality.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright (c) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 by Barry Casselman.
All rights reserved.



Wednesday, July 1, 2020

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: U.S. Senate Races Now

In addition to the presidential campaign, the contests for
control of the U.S. senate are key to he outcome of the 2020
election.

The purely numerical advantage has shifted this cycle to the
Democrats who have only about half as many incumbent
seats as the Republicans up for re-election. In the most
recent cycles, the GOP had this advantage, and it helped them
keep their current 53-47 majority control.

Although 34 seats are up this year are up, only 10-12 are now
seen as competitive. Most of these are GOP seats, and this
has given Democrats hope that they might retake majority
control in January, 2021.

The senate minority now need either 3 or 4 pick-ups to regain
the majority (depending on which ticket wins the White
House; the vice president presides over the senate and
breaks any ties). That also assumes he Democrats lose no
seat they now hold.

The six senate seats which now appear most likely to switch
parties are in Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Maine
(currently held by Republicans), and in Alabama and Michigan
(currently held by Democrats).  Of these, only Alabama seems
almost certain to change hands.  If so, this would change the
math for Democrats taking control by an additional seat.

Each party had recent good and bad news about the two most
vulnerable GOP seats. In Arizona, incumbent Martha McSally
has fallen behind former astronaut Mark Kelly. and in Colorado,
former Democratic Governor  John Hickenlooper is stumbling
badly in his last-minute effort to unseat GOP incumbent
Senator Cory Gardner.

Republican Senators Thom Tillis (North Carolina) and Susan
Collina (Maine) are facing challengers heavily financed with
out-of-state money. GOP challenger in Michigan John James
is strong candidate against low-profile Democratic incumbent
Gary Peters, but trails in the polls.

Other potentially vulnerable seats include those in Georgia,
Iowa, Montana and Kansas (now held by Republicans); and in
New Hampshire and Minnesota (now held by Democrats),
but pick-ups in these seats probably depend on whether the
presidential election is close or not.

Voter moods, as best can be measured, are almost always
volatile in the summer months before a national election,
and probably more so this unprecedented year.  In this
environment, media  propaganda news can prevail over
common sense., and a spate of partisan or flawed polls can
be misleading. Time and again over the years, I have
cautioned that the most accurate and useful polling occurs
just before the election in October when pollsters are highly
motivated to be as accurate as possible.

I also have long pointed out that some races rated as “safe”
early on by various pundits  unexpectedly become very
competitive as election day approaches. I will have more
about which ones these might be after the conventions and
Labor Day. Some senate nominees have not yet been
chosen.

The bottom line now in early July in the  U.S. senate races
is that senate control in 2021 is undecided, and dependent  not
only the presidential contest outcome, but also very much
on the quality of the candidates running this year.

Developing.....

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright (c) 2020 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.