In this strangest of presidential elections in memory,
the Iowa Caucus was destined to tell us everything and
nothing — and so it did.
The results demonstrated the clear dominance of
former President Donald Trump in the Republican
Party, and set him on course for his party’s nomination
next July in Milwaukee.
New Hampshire will vote in its primary in a few days,
and it will likely be closer, but it is hard to imagine
either of his two remaining opponents defeating him
now.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis made a Herculean
effort in Iowa, and did come in second, but he received
less than a quarter of the vote.
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley hoped her
recent poll surge would enable her to come in second,
but she trailed DeSantis by more than 2000 votes. She
will likely do better in New Hampshire, and DeSantis
likely will do much worse, but neither of them have
much prospects beyond that.
On a bitterly cold day, Mr. Trump carried all of Iowa’s
counties. Another opponent, Vivek Ramaswami, came in
a distant fourth in Iowa, and soon after the results were
known, he suspended his campaign and endorsed Mr,
Trump.
So the constant poll news of the past several months,
that Donald Trump was way ahead of is rivals, was
confirmed in Iowa — as was the likelihood he will be
the 2024 Republican nominee for president.
On the other hand, Iowa revealed little or nothing about
who will be elected president next November.
The Democrats held a half-hearted unofficial caucus in
Iowa with no results expected until March. They also
ruled out their New Hampshire primary, and their now
likely nominee, President Joe Biden, is not even on the
Granite State ballot — although he is expected to win
there with write-in votes.
Despite historically low poll numbers, and unpopularity,
Mr. Biden has no major opponent for his party’s
nomination. A retiring Minnesota congressman who
can self-fund his campaign is running against him, but
his poll numbers indicate he can’t even win in New
Hampshire against Biden as a write-in candidate.
But in spite of this, and the Iowa results, it is not at all
clear that Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden will face each other
in November.
Mr. Trump faces four upcoming criminal trials, and an
unprecedented attempt to legally bar him from several
state ballots. These are likely to require decisions of
the U.S. Supreme Court at some as yet unspecified
time.
Mr. Biden’s frail health, as well as his administration’s
policies, have resulted in his low approval polls not
only among Republicans, but among many Democrats
as well — who say in polls they would prefer a younger
nominee. Many leading strategists in his own party
have urged him to retire, and many political observers
have suggested scenarios of his retirement just before
or just after the party convention in Chicago.
Should some individual states be allowed to bar Mr.
Trump from the November ballot, it is likely that other
states will bar Mr. Biden from their ballot using the
same legal reasoning.
The results in Iowa, despite showing Mr. Trump’s
grassroots strength and probable nomination, reveal
little or nothing about the eventual true course of this
cycle’s presidential election, just as New Hampshire in a
few days will likely reveal little or nothing about Mr.
Biden’s true prospects.
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Copyright (c) 2024 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.
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