The first actual voting event of the 2024 presidential
election will take place on Monday, January 15 in the
state of Iowa with its Republican caucus voting.
Caucuses are less formal and well-attended than
primary elections so predicting a winner, based on
polling, can often be very inaccurate.
Winter weather can also be a factor, and this year an
arctic “blast” with below-zero temperatures is forecast
for the entire state.
Democrats traditionally also held an Iowa caucus
the same day as the Republicans, but after a
disastrous 2020 caucus at which results were
unavailable for many days, and a decision by the
national party to hold its first 2024 voting event in South
Carolina, their Iowa caucus was cancelled.
Polling this cycle for the GOP caucus has consistently
shown former President Donald Trump well ahead of
his opponents. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has been
in second place with double digits, and former South
Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has been in third. Final
polls show Trump still well head with DeSantis and
Haley both tied in low double digits.
Mr. Trump did not win the Iowa caucus in 2016. Texas
Senator Ted Cruz did. In fact, the Iowa caucus winner
often has not ultimately won the party presidential
nomination. Critics cite the low caucus turnout, and
Iowa’s atypical voters as the reasons for this.
Mr. DeSantis has had the most thorough and
aggressive ground game this cycle in Iowa, and he
has campaigned in every county. Mr. Trump has visited
the state much less frequently, as has Ms. Haley.
If there is going to be a surprise on January 15, it is
likely to be that the DeSantis ground game paid off.
However, Mr. Trump has a large and loyal voter base
in this state, as he does in other states, and his voters
are perhaps the most determined to show up on
the bitterly cold caucus night. Ms. Haley has been
surging in the Iowa polls, so her final total is also
unpredictable.
Eight days after the Iowa caucus, both parties will
hold the New Hampshire primary. Democrats in New
Hampshire are holding theirs in defiance of the
national party, and President Biden is not on the
ballot. Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips is the
leading opponent to the president on the ballot, but
in spite of an active campaign by him in the state, he
is polling in the single digits. Mr. Biden is expected to
win the New Hampshire primary by a big margin with
write-in votes.
The GOP New Hampshire primary has seen Mr.
Trump’s initial large lead shrink, with Nikki Haley now
almost tied with him in the polls. Mr. DeSantis trails
with single digits in the polls. It is quite possible that
Ms. Haley could win this primary.
But even assuming that DeSantis wins an upset in
Iowa, and Haley does prevail in New Hampshire,
Mr. Trump has very large poll leads in virtually every
primary following, including South Carolina and
Florida, his opponents’ home states.
The Democrats, however, seem preoccupied with
conducting the 2024 presidential election in the
courtroom instead of the ballot box — with their
efforts to convict Mr. Trump in four current trials, as
well as removing him from state ballots by court
order. How these efforts will turn out is unknown at
this point, including when the trials take place and
how the U.S. Supreme Court will rule on both the
trials and ballot eligibility. Despite winning the
delegates in the primaries, and the party nomination
at the national convention, it isn’t certain he will be
the Republican nominee in November.
Nor is it certain that Mr. Biden will the Democrats’
nominee in November. A very large number of
Democrats say they prefer him to retire, and let
another Democrat run for president in 2024. Mr.
Biden’s favorability poll numbers are extremely
low, and he trails each of his potential opponents in
most current poll match-ups.
All this uncertainty, much of it caused by unusual or
unprecedented circumstances, has significantly
diminished expectations for the traditional Iowa
and New Hampshire beginnings of the presidential
campaigns. Many in the media will likely try to find
some significance from these two events, but 2024
is so unusual and so uncertain that any meaningful
clue to the November outcome is likely still months
away.
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Copyright (c) 2024 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.
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