barrycasselman

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: 2026 Mid-terms: Precedent Or Surprise?

Next year's national mid-term elections are especially

important because control of the U,S, Senate and House

is at stake, and therefore the ability of either the second

Trump administration to continue to remake and reform

the federal government or the ability of the Democrats

to make a political comeback and set its sights on a

return to power in 2028.

History is usually on the side of the party out of power,

in this case, the Democrats, but the current political

environment suggests that historical precedent might not

apply in 2026.

The Democrats do have the advantage in both the

Senate and House races by just the numbers. Almost

twice as many incumbent Republican Senate seats

are on the ballot, and the GOP lead in the House is

only in the single digits.

According to CNN and Wall Street Journal (WSJ) polls,

however, Democrats are registering respectively

25-point and 30-point net negative favorability among

voters —- record low numbers.

The initial response by many Democrats following

the defeat of their presidential ticket in 2024 has

been to try to move further to the left, but these

moves have made the party and many of its

candidates more unpopular, according to most polls,

including the already cited CNN and WSJ polls.

Meanwhile, President Trump — whose campaign

policy promises, including initiating tariffs and

promises to bring peace to conflicts in Europe and

the Middle East, were widely regarded with much

skepticism —- is having some initial successes,

including controlling inflation so far, some temporary

ceasefires, and making trade deals.

But these initial successes might not last. The

international environment is very brittle. Inflation

could resume and the stock market could go

down.

Economic downturns in the past have almost

always been a key factor in mid-term elections.

Democrats still dominate most cities, but further

increases in urban crime, commercial departure

from downtowns, and weakening public security

might help Republican candidates next year as

suburban and rural voters react to high visibility

inner city problems.

Candidate recruitment to fill open seats or to

oppose incumbents is a vital part of political

success. Many potentially competitive House

and Senate races have not yet settled on their

nominees or face primary battles next year.

The financial cost and organizational challenges

require candidates to announce their candidacies

well in advance of a mid-term election. That

process, now well-underway, should be mostly

concluded in the next few months.

The mid-term elections of 2026 appear likely to

be some of the most interesting in recent years,

and a test of whether historical precedent will

prevail or whether there are more political

surprises ahead.

________________________________________________

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: An Early Look At Upcoming Races For Governor

With so much public attention on the political changes

taking place at the federal level under the new Trump

administration, the partisan orientation at the state

level is easily overlooked.

Two governor ships will be decided this November, and

thirty-six more will be on the ballot in next year’s

mid-term elections.

Currently, there are twenty-seven Republican governors

and twenty-three Democrats who hold their states’

highest executive office.

The two up for election in 2025 are Virginia (GOP

incumbent) and New Jersey (Democrat incumbent),

but both are open races since their current

governors are term-limited. Democrats are favored to

win both these races although they are likely to be

competitive. Virginia and New Jersey in recent years

have favored liberal statewide candidates, although

conservative Virginia Governor Glen Youngkin’s victory

was an upset.

In 2026, ten governorships held by Democrats, and

fifteen held by Republicans, are considered “safe”

races.

The competitive Democrat races include California

(open), Colorado (open), Wisconsin, Kansas,

Minnesota, Maine, Michigan and New Mexico —

incumbents are expected to run in the latter six states.

The battleground Republican races include Nevada,

Georgia and Iowa, the laltter two will be open contests.

Some pundits rate the Pennsylvania race as a toss-up,

but incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro is very popular

despite the Keystone State trending conservative, and

so far, the GOP has not come up with a strong candidate.

Many commentators rate the Minnesota race as “safe”

for the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL), but

a recent major poll show his re-election numbers in the

negative. If he is the DFL nominee in 2026, the race

will likely be competitive.

It is still quite early in the 2026 gubernatorial races.

Many of the nominees, Republican and Democrat, are

still unknown. Some of the races which are rated as

“safe” could become competitive.

As the first mid-term election of a new president, 2026

historically favors the Democrats, but that advantage

could be illusory since most of the battleground races

for governor are now held by Democrats.

Unlike the federal races in a mid-term election, contests

for governor and other statewide races usually depend

on local state issues. But in the era of the second

Trump administration, intensity of support or opposition

to the president and his policies could play a greater role

than usual in next year’s campaigns.

_____________________________________________________

Monday, June 30, 2025

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: A Close Race For Minnesota Governor Next Year?

A recent poll in Minnesota indicates that incumbent

Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Governor Tim Walz,

now finishing his second term in the office, no longer

has net positive approval among polled Minnesota

voters. The negative margin, according to the poll, is

small, although the negative number is larger when

the question is asked if voters would support him for

re-election to a third term.

Governor Walz has not yet announced whether he

intends to run for a third term, but following his

unsuccessful candidacy as the vice presidential

nominee on the 2024 Kamala Harris Democrtic

presidential ticket, he has indicated his continued

interest in national politics. He has been mentioned

as a possible presidential candidate in 2028,

Should he decide to run in 2028, it would seem

likely he would want to be running as a governor

rather than a private citizen three years out of office

Before becoming governor, Walz served as a

congressman from Minnesota’s First District.

Although several DFL elected officials are known

to be interested in running for governor, no one

is likely to make any announcements until Walz

make his decision. If he does run, it is also likely

no major figure in his party would run against him.

Meanwhile, Republicans sensing a growing

strength among Minnesota voters, have at least

three serious candidates who could challenge

Walz in 2024.

Dr, Scott Jensen was Walz’s GOP opponent in

2022. A respected medical doctor, his candidacy

was hurt by his outspoken pro-life position in

the campaign. He has successfully rebuffed

efforts to take away his medical license, efforts

widely perceived as political and groundless.

He continues to have support in rural Minnesota.

GOP State Representative Kristin Robbins has

made a mark in her terms in the state House

of representatives, and has won election and

re-election decisively in her suburban Minneapolis

district. Before her election, she served as executive

director of the Economics Club of Minnesota

where she worked with top leaders of the Minnesota

business community.

Kendall Quarles is a respected black entrepreneur

who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2020, but

has stayed in public life through his regular TV

commentary.

Other candidates might enter this race which could

easily be very competitive in November, 2026.

________________________________________________

About Barry Casselman

BARRY CASSELMAN is an author, journalist and lecturer who has reported and analyzed American presidential and national politics since 1972.

He founded, edited and published his first newspaper when he was 29. He has been a contributor to many national publications, including The Weekly Standard, realclearpolitics.com, Politico, Roll Call, Washington Examiner, The American Interest, Utne Reader, Campaigns and Elections Magazine, American Experiment Quarterly, Washington Times, The Rothenberg Political Report, Business Today, Election Politics, Business Ethics Magazine, San Francisco Examiner, Washington Insider, and American Commonwealth.

His regular op ed columns and other commentary in print, and on the internet, are distributed through the Preludium News Service. His blog ‘The Prairie Editor” has an international readership and appears on his website at www.barrycasselman.com .

He was a political analyst for WCCO-AM (CBS) for several years, for KSJN-AM (Public Radio International), and for KUOM-AM (National Public Radio). He has also broadcast on RAE in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and beginning in 2000, he produced and broadcast for Voice of America. In 2006, he presented news commentary on LBC, the independent 24-hour news radio network in London, England. He also provided election night analysis in 2006 for Minnesota Public Radio. In 2008, he returned to WCCO-AM for periodic national election commentary. Beginning in 2011, he began weekly commentary on the 2012 presidential campaign on a national radio podcast program originating in Dallas, TX.

Casselman was the original host of “Talk To Your City” on the Minneapolis Television Network, and was a frequent political commentator for KTCA-TV (PBS). In 1992 and 1994, he presented election night analysis for the Conus coast-to-coast All News Channel. In 1996, he provided live coverage from the presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire for All News Channel nationwide. He has also appeared on C-SPAN. In 2008, he was interviewed by ABC-TV Evening News with Charles Gibson.

He has covered national presidential primaries, caucuses and straw polls since 1976, and attended Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1988. He has traveled throughout the United States to report on significant political events, including the national congressional debate in Williamsburg in 1996, the presidential debates, national conventions and events of the Democratic Leadership Council, Democratic National Committee, Republican National Committee, United We Stand America, Reform Party, National Governors Association, NAACP, AFL-CIO, Christian Coalition, CPAC, Green Party and the Independence Party.

In 2012, he was invited to be a civilian participant in the 58th annual seminar on national security at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, PA. Also in 2012, he was a speaker at the Jefferson Educational Society's Global Summit IV. At that event, he received the Thomas Hagen "Dignitas" Award for lifetime achievement.

From 1990-2011, he was the executive director of the non-profit International Conference Foundation, and hosted more than 500 world leaders, foreign journalists and other international visitors. At the non-partisan Foundation, he also organized four national symposia: the first on low-income housing with then-HUD Secretary Jack Kemp; the second, a highly-acclaimed conference on “Locating the New Political Center in America” with Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and leading spokespersons of the Clinton administration as well as newly-emerged independent groups; the third, a symposium on public communications with then-Governor Tom Ridge, former White House press secretary Mike McCurry, Tony Blankley and other national figures; and in 2003, a symposium on homeland security with Secretary Ridge and leading local and national experts. During this time, he also organized numerous smaller conferences, tours and events for the U.S. Information Agency and the U.S. Department of State for its International Visitor Program and its Foreign Press Center programs. In 2008, he organized a special program for international media and visitors attending the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. The Foundation also sponsored programs presenting domestic and international authors and their books.

In 2007, Mr. Casselman helped create and plan the nationally-broadcast and podcast dialogue between former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at the Cooper Union in New York City, and he continued to work on related debate and public policy discussion projects in the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Mr. Casselman has been a lecturer on public policy at Princeton University’s annual international business conferences in New York, and its regional conferences in Chicago since 2005; He also has been a guest lecturer at George Washington University, Carleton College, The Chautauqua (NY) Institution, Gannon University, Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Santa Barbara City College, University of St. Thomas, Metropolitan State University, Augsburg College, University of Minnesota, Jefferson Educational Society, and on the international voyages of the Queen Elizabeth 2, Sagafjord, Vistafjord and Royal Viking Sun. He has made presentations on journalism and the arts at Carleton College, University of Minnesota, College of St. Catherine, Minneapolis College of Art and Design, Walker Art Center, Metropolitan State University, Mercyhurst College and the Brazilian Writers Union in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

His non-fiction book North Star Rising was published in 2007 by Pogo Press, an imprint of Finney Company. In 2008, Pogo Press published Minnesota Souvenir, Casselman’s history and visitor guide for the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul. He was editor and co-author of the book Taking Turns: Political Stalemate or a New Direction in the Race for 2012, a preview of that year's national election.

He has been cited in Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics and in William Safire’s Political Dictionary. Casselman has invented a number of political words and phrases which are now in frequent usage, and listed in various online dictionaries.

He is also a widely-published American poet, short story writer and playwright whose work has been translated and published in Europe, South America and Asia. He is the author of four published books of literary prose and poetry. His work has been frequently anthologized. Two of his plays, in collaboration with composer Randall Davidson, have been performed by the Actors Theater of St. Paul, Minnesota Orchestra, St. Donat’s Ensemble of Wales, and by independent productions at the Union Depot in St. Paul and the Foss Theater at Augsburg College in Minneapolis. He has provided original texts for two award-winning experimental films, as well as texts for other independent short films and videos.

Barry Casselman was born in Erie, Pennsylvania. He received his B.A. with major honors from the University of Pennsylvania and his M.F.A. at the Writers Workshop at the University of Iowa. He has also studied in Paris, and attended the University of Madrid. He now lives in Minneapolis.