barrycasselman: May 2025

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Senate Mid-Term Battlegrounds Update

An early survey of next year’s mid-term U.S. Senate races

indicates that despite the fact that 22 Republican

incumbent seats are on the ballot, and just 13 Democrat

incumbent seats, only 6 seats, 4 Democrats and 2

Republicans now appear to be close races.

With the GOP currently holding a 53-47 majority, this is

good news for conservatives, but it is always possible

that more incumbent seats could become vulnerable,

and the usual advantage of the opposition party in a new

president’s first mid-term could come into play.

The 6 battleground races are in Georgia, Maine, Michigan,

Minnesota, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

Although they are usually safe GOP seats, incumbents in

Texas and Louisiana are facing intraparty challenges in

their primaries, and could provide Democrats with an

opportunity. Other states, including Kentucky and

Colorado could also develop into closer contests.

One of the most vulnerable incumbents is Georgia

Democrat Jon Ossoff who barely won his seat in a run-off

in 2020. Georgia is usually a red state, but it sends two

Democrats to the Senate. Until he decided not to run for

the seat next year, popular GOP Governor Brian Kemp

was the heavy favorite to win his party’s nomination and

to defeat Ossoff in November. Lacking a frontrunner to

oppose Ossoff, Republicans now must scramble if they

are to pick up this seat.

Maine Senator Susan Collins is the only GOP senator in

the U.S. northeast, and always faces a serious challenge

from the Democrats. In the past, she has come out on

top on election day, but this might be her most vulnerable

race.

Incumbent Michigan Democrat Senator Gary Peters is

retiring, and the likely GOP nominee for the open seat,

former Congressman Mike Rogers will be formidable

after almost winning the previous open seat in 2024.

There are numerous Democrats vying for the seat, but

no frontrunner yet. Although the state has been

leaning blue, President Trump carried it in 2024.

Very blue Minnesota presented Republicans with a

pick-up opportunity when Democrat incumbent Tina

Smith announced her retirement. Lt. Governor Peggy

Flanagan and 2nd District Congresswoman Angie

Craig, both Democrats, are running. Craig has been a

formidable campaigner in her purple district. Meanwhile,

Republicans have not yet a candidate in the race who

can win.

Another GOP pick-up opportunity occurred when New

Hampshire Democrat Jeanne Shaheen decided to

retire next year. This open seat race will probably be

between former U,S, Senator (from Massachusetts)

Scott brown, a Republican, vs Democrat Congressman

Chris Pappas. Brown moved to this state a dozen years

ago. This contest leans Democrat, but it could be a very

close race.

Finally, GOP incumbent Thom Tillis of North Carolina is

facing a potentially serious challenge in his first

re-election. Former Governor Ray Cooper could be

formidable if he ran, but there are several other

liberal candidates if he does not run.This state leans

red, but Democrats are turning the state more purple.

Republicans also have to defend an open seat in

Kentucky, where long-time incumbent Mitch McConnell

is retiring. State Attorney General Daniel Cameron and

Congressman Andy Barr, both Republicans, are already

in the race, but CNN commentator Scott Jennings could

receive an all-important endorsement from President

Trump and win the nomination. When popular Governor

Andy Beshear decided not to run, this became a likely

GOP race.

In two strongly red states, Incumbent Republicans are

facing serious primary challenges from other Republicans.

Texas senator John Cornyn actually currently trails in

polls, and Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy is facing a

strong challenge. If one or both of these incumbents lost

their primaries, these safe GOP seats might become

competitive.

Although it’s still early, the 2026 U.S. senate races are

now coming into more focus. These races will likely see

massive spending, and fundraising for them has to

begin as early as possible. Recruitment for candidates

against incumbents or for open seats is always a key

factor, and as pointed out above, both Democrats and

Republicans still have work to do —- with time quickly

running out.

________________________________________________

About Barry Casselman

BARRY CASSELMAN is an author, journalist and lecturer who has reported and analyzed American presidential and national politics since 1972.

He founded, edited and published his first newspaper when he was 29. He has been a contributor to many national publications, including The Weekly Standard, realclearpolitics.com, Politico, Roll Call, Washington Examiner, The American Interest, Utne Reader, Campaigns and Elections Magazine, American Experiment Quarterly, Washington Times, The Rothenberg Political Report, Business Today, Election Politics, Business Ethics Magazine, San Francisco Examiner, Washington Insider, and American Commonwealth.

His regular op ed columns and other commentary in print, and on the internet, are distributed through the Preludium News Service. His blog ‘The Prairie Editor” has an international readership and appears on his website at www.barrycasselman.com .

He was a political analyst for WCCO-AM (CBS) for several years, for KSJN-AM (Public Radio International), and for KUOM-AM (National Public Radio). He has also broadcast on RAE in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and beginning in 2000, he produced and broadcast for Voice of America. In 2006, he presented news commentary on LBC, the independent 24-hour news radio network in London, England. He also provided election night analysis in 2006 for Minnesota Public Radio. In 2008, he returned to WCCO-AM for periodic national election commentary. Beginning in 2011, he began weekly commentary on the 2012 presidential campaign on a national radio podcast program originating in Dallas, TX.

Casselman was the original host of “Talk To Your City” on the Minneapolis Television Network, and was a frequent political commentator for KTCA-TV (PBS). In 1992 and 1994, he presented election night analysis for the Conus coast-to-coast All News Channel. In 1996, he provided live coverage from the presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire for All News Channel nationwide. He has also appeared on C-SPAN. In 2008, he was interviewed by ABC-TV Evening News with Charles Gibson.

He has covered national presidential primaries, caucuses and straw polls since 1976, and attended Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1988. He has traveled throughout the United States to report on significant political events, including the national congressional debate in Williamsburg in 1996, the presidential debates, national conventions and events of the Democratic Leadership Council, Democratic National Committee, Republican National Committee, United We Stand America, Reform Party, National Governors Association, NAACP, AFL-CIO, Christian Coalition, CPAC, Green Party and the Independence Party.

In 2012, he was invited to be a civilian participant in the 58th annual seminar on national security at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, PA. Also in 2012, he was a speaker at the Jefferson Educational Society's Global Summit IV. At that event, he received the Thomas Hagen "Dignitas" Award for lifetime achievement.

From 1990-2011, he was the executive director of the non-profit International Conference Foundation, and hosted more than 500 world leaders, foreign journalists and other international visitors. At the non-partisan Foundation, he also organized four national symposia: the first on low-income housing with then-HUD Secretary Jack Kemp; the second, a highly-acclaimed conference on “Locating the New Political Center in America” with Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and leading spokespersons of the Clinton administration as well as newly-emerged independent groups; the third, a symposium on public communications with then-Governor Tom Ridge, former White House press secretary Mike McCurry, Tony Blankley and other national figures; and in 2003, a symposium on homeland security with Secretary Ridge and leading local and national experts. During this time, he also organized numerous smaller conferences, tours and events for the U.S. Information Agency and the U.S. Department of State for its International Visitor Program and its Foreign Press Center programs. In 2008, he organized a special program for international media and visitors attending the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. The Foundation also sponsored programs presenting domestic and international authors and their books.

In 2007, Mr. Casselman helped create and plan the nationally-broadcast and podcast dialogue between former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at the Cooper Union in New York City, and he continued to work on related debate and public policy discussion projects in the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Mr. Casselman has been a lecturer on public policy at Princeton University’s annual international business conferences in New York, and its regional conferences in Chicago since 2005; He also has been a guest lecturer at George Washington University, Carleton College, The Chautauqua (NY) Institution, Gannon University, Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Santa Barbara City College, University of St. Thomas, Metropolitan State University, Augsburg College, University of Minnesota, Jefferson Educational Society, and on the international voyages of the Queen Elizabeth 2, Sagafjord, Vistafjord and Royal Viking Sun. He has made presentations on journalism and the arts at Carleton College, University of Minnesota, College of St. Catherine, Minneapolis College of Art and Design, Walker Art Center, Metropolitan State University, Mercyhurst College and the Brazilian Writers Union in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

His non-fiction book North Star Rising was published in 2007 by Pogo Press, an imprint of Finney Company. In 2008, Pogo Press published Minnesota Souvenir, Casselman’s history and visitor guide for the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul. He was editor and co-author of the book Taking Turns: Political Stalemate or a New Direction in the Race for 2012, a preview of that year's national election.

He has been cited in Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics and in William Safire’s Political Dictionary. Casselman has invented a number of political words and phrases which are now in frequent usage, and listed in various online dictionaries.

He is also a widely-published American poet, short story writer and playwright whose work has been translated and published in Europe, South America and Asia. He is the author of four published books of literary prose and poetry. His work has been frequently anthologized. Two of his plays, in collaboration with composer Randall Davidson, have been performed by the Actors Theater of St. Paul, Minnesota Orchestra, St. Donat’s Ensemble of Wales, and by independent productions at the Union Depot in St. Paul and the Foss Theater at Augsburg College in Minneapolis. He has provided original texts for two award-winning experimental films, as well as texts for other independent short films and videos.

Barry Casselman was born in Erie, Pennsylvania. He received his B.A. with major honors from the University of Pennsylvania and his M.F.A. at the Writers Workshop at the University of Iowa. He has also studied in Paris, and attended the University of Madrid. He now lives in Minneapolis.

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Senate Mid-Term Battlegrounds Update

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