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Three Weeks To Change The World

The contest for the 2012 Republican nomination for president
has entered a curious interval. The basic conditions of the race
are unchanged, that is, Mitt Romney is the frontrunner and the now
reduced number of his challengers are still chasing his lead. This past
Tuesday's results in which a hitherto minor candidate won two
caucuses and a non-binding primary did not change this fundamental
condition, although media coverage has attempted to suggest that it
did.

Super Tuesday, at which a large number of delegates will be chosen
for the first time, is about three weeks away, and will begin a series
of primaries in large states that will choose delegates on a
winner-take-all basis. This will soon lead either to the presumptive
nomination of Mr. Romney, or should he fail then, it will lead to an
open convention in Tampa (at which recently withdrawn candidates
might resume their candidacies, and even new candidates might enter
the race).

The latter scenario would be the first truly open convention in more
than 50 years, and the outcome, from the view of the present point in
time, would be uncertain. The former scenario, the nomination of Mr.
Romney is more likely, but of course anything can happen in a political
cycle such as this one.

Notwithstanding all of the most recent events, the "significance" of
which I have been suggesting is overstated and overwroght, it is very
difficult to see anyone but Mr Romney or Mr Gingrich accumulating
enough delegates to assure victory in Tampa. Mr. Santorum's "bubble"
of successful fundraising and rising poll numbers should continue for
several days now. If Super Tuesday were next Tuesday (February 14),
he might indeed supercede Mr. Gingrich. But it is Ron Paul who is
likely to be Mr. Romney's principal challenger in Maine, and Mr.
Romney now has the money and time to recover in Arizona and
Michigan, two primary states that precede Super Tuesday. For now,
Mr. Santorum has some mini-momentum in some of the Super
Tuesday states, but the overriding pattern of the 2012 primary cycle
is that no challenger to Mr Romney can sustain his or her "bubble" in
the polls. Mr. Gingrich is not likely to turn suddenly into a political
marshmallow as he faces his last serious opportunity to win his
party's nomination before Tampa. Moreover, Mr. Santorum will now
be "vetted" as he has not been before, and his 12 year-record in the
U.S. senate will be measured against his claims of success in that time.
Voters will also be able to assess why Mr. Santorum, with two senate
terms behind him, was able to lose his re-election in Pennsylvania by
an astonishing 18 points in 2006.

On the other hand, Mr. Romney, with all his organization and available
campaign funding, cannot fail to pull his campaign together as he has
not done before, address his communication problems with doubters in
his own party, and assert himself as the nominee. Mr. Gingrich has
finally adopted a more appealing tone to his campaign, and a less brittle
response to the steady stream of criticism from his rivals. But is it in time,
and enough to give him a third comeback? Can he win in Georgia,
Alabama, Tennessee and Oklahoma (states where he is expected to do
well), and then surprise in Ohio (where Mr. Romney or Mr. Santorum
might be expected to beat him)?

The next three weeks will have few voting events, and will be the final
"slow" time before many primaries will take place in rapid succession.
But the course of the 2012 Republican nomination contest may well be
determined by what happens in this interval below the surface and
behind the scenes.

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Copyright (c) 2012 by Barry Casselman
All rights reserved.

Republican Bubble Baths

Last Tuesday, a small number of voters in two caucus states, and
voters in a basically meaningless primary (it did not choose any
delegates, and one major candidate was not even on the ballot) created
one more in an endless series of"political" bubbles in the Republican
contest for the 2012 presidential nomination.

Rick Santorum won all three of these events. He was expected to win
two of them. He defeated Mitt Romney by a narrow margin in Colorado
where he was expected to come in second. Now we will have a second
Santorum "bubble" (the first occurred after Mr. Santorum tied Mr.
Romney in the Iowa caucus). The first bubble lasted only a few days
because in the next voting, the New Hampshire primary, Mr. Santorum
trailed far behind. In subsequent voting, including South Carolina,
Florida and Nevada, he did not do well, coming in a distant third or fourth.

First, I want to give Rick Santorum some personal credit for the campaign
he has run this cycle. No one gave him any chance to emerge at the outset
of the campaign, and he was not impressive in the early debates. But he
persisted and worked hard, and he stuck to his guns as clearly the most
consistently social conservative candidate in his party. Other candidates
had better resumes, were more colorful, and had much more resources, but
one by one they fell by the side of the political road. Mr. Santorum is now
"somebody" in his party, and he earned it the old fashioned way. Mr.
Santorum, it needs to be added, has not yet needed to defend any personal
baggage as the hitherto major candidates attacked each other with bitter
personal attacks and advertising.

Mr. Santorum, as certain as his poll numbers will now rise, will also
receive the vetting he has not had until now. A two-term U.S. senator
from Pennsylvania, he was defeated for re-election by 18 points in 2006.
Subsequently, Mr. Santorum went to "K" Street in Washington, DC,
and became a millionaire in short order. Both his serious rivals, Mr.
Romney and Mr. Gingrich (as well as Barack Obama), became self-made
millionaires, so that in itself is not an issue, but now there will be a
serious examination, as happened with his rivals, of how he made so
much money. One of Mr. Santorum's strengths is also one of his
vulnerabilities, that is, his dogged persistence of many of his very
conservative ideals. An example of this occurred in the recent debates
when Mr. Santorum confronted Mr. Romney on the issue of restoring
voting rights to convicted felons. Mr. Santorum tore into Mr. Romney's
position of not restoring those rights, but as Mr. Romney pointed out,
the vast majority of voters, no matter the compassionate principle, will
not respond to a candidate who makes this issue into a big deal. Mr.
Santorum is also much admired in the pro-life community as one of
their most consistent champions, but his views on the subject are
absolute. All of the Republican candidates are pro-life, but Mr. Romney
makes an exception in the case of rape, incest and the life of the mother.
This is where the majority of Americans are, particularly independent
voters, and it is a certainty that Mr. Obama's campaign would make
much of this should Mr. Santorum be the nominee.

Since a true vetting has not yet taken place, I am not going to make any
judgment on any character issues regarding Mr. Santorum. Like Mr.
Romney, he appears to be a model husband, father and family man.

The punditocracy, left and right, as well as the partisan spinmeisters,
will now suggest that Tuesday was further proof that Mr. Romney is not
nominatable because the Republican base does not trust or like him.
While this may ultimately have some validity, Tuesday "proved" nothing
of the sort. The relatively small number of voters on Tuesday were events
ideal for fringe candidates. Ron Paul and Mr. Santorum did well because
their base of energized voters showed up. Mr. Romney and Newt Gingrich,
who have larger bases of support in the party did poorly, but their
showing does not necessarily reflect what lies ahead when the largest
number of delegates are selected.

Mr. Paul is a fringe candidate in any case. Like Mr. Santorum, he has
stuck to his principles throughout the campaign, but there is no
evidence that beyond his small base he has any support among the
Republican electorate. He has made some excellent points on the
domestic economy, but his foreign policy and national defense views
are in direct opposition to the widely-held views of the great majority
of Republicans of all stripes.

Mr. Gingrich seemed to be left out of Tuesday's voting. He did not
even appear on the ballot in the only primary, Missouri. But the next
important day of voting, Super Tuesday in early March, will include
states he might win, including Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma.
Mr. Gingrich himself has had a serious of extreme ups and downs,
debate triumphs, attacks on his character, and miscues. He must do
well on Super Tuesday. If he does not, his only hope then would be a
brokered convention in Tampa. Mr. Gingrich' challenge now is to
reach deep down inside himself to discard his oft-cited insecurities
and make himself not only the smartest candidate and the best debater,
but someone genuinely appealing to voters.

I am amused by the "new" conventional wisdom that Mr. Romney
is now not only no longer the frontrunner, but not acceptable to his party.
All this based on three states where a small number of activist voters
dominated the elections. (Only two days before, the "old" conventional
wisdom had him almost the inevitable nominee.)

Let me use the Minnesota caucus to prove my point. I live in Minnesota,
and have been critical of its precinct caucus system for decades. Less
than 1% or 2% of eligible voters show up at the caucuses. The vast
majority of Minnesota voters gave up on them years ago when it became
obvious that, in both parties, these caucuses were being used by tiny
minorities of special interest voters to impose themselves on the majority
of voters. The vote totals in these caucuses chronically reflect an elitist
and anti-democratic system in Minnesota, one that has worked time and
again against majority voter opinion. Neither Mr. Paul nor Mr. Santorum
could carry Minnesota in a general election while, in my opinion, either
Mr. Romney or Mr. Gingrich could.

A "bubble" for Mr. Santorum over the next few weeks is inevitable. No
doubt he will also receive an infusion of cash, and an influx of campaign
volunteers. Perhaps he will survive the vetting he will now receive. But we
have been through these "bubbles" before, and as I suggested in a recent
column, winners of GOP primaries and caucuses find their momentary
triumphs easily turn into a negative political "curse."

Nor will Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich stand quietly still during the next
three weeks. They and their supporters are not going to passively default
to a tiny number of activist voters and let them dictate the Republican
nomination for president. Is it possible that Mr. Santorum to follow through
on Tuesday? Yes, but the patterns of this campaign year suggest that to obtain
the nomination in Tampa and win the general election, the Republican
nominee will have to have broader appeal than just a party base.

If the Republican Party does not appeal to a majority of voters, especially
to the most voters in states with the most electoral votes, they will not win
next November. The opponent of the Republicans may be, as I have
suggested, a failed president who cannot bring the nation out of its
current crisis, but he is not yet a failed campaigner. In fact, he has shown
himself to be an effective campaigner. Give him the "wrong" opponent, and
he will take him to the showers.

This year's campaign has just begun. As befits a truly historic election, the
battles ahead will be epic and extraordinary.

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Copyright (c) 2012 by Barry Casselman
All rights reserved.

SPECIAL SUBSCRIBER ADVISORY

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SPECIAL SUBSCRIBER ADVISORY

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"Special Subscriber Advisory" on the aftermath
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The Curse Of Winning A Republican Primary/Caucus in 2012 And Other Curiosities

There is a curious phenomenon happening in the Republican contest
for the party’s nomination in 2012. No sooner has someone won an
early caucus or primary than something bad happens, and someone else
wins the next one.

Rick Santorum surprisingly tied Mitt Romney in the Iowa caucus, the
opening voting event in this four year cycle, and in fact, several days later,
following a recount of the ballots, was declared the winner. He did receive
a great deal of media attention as a result of this, and an increase in
campaign cash contributions, but came in a distant third or fourth in New
Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida the next three weeks. He has
has no current prospects of winning another primary or caucus, including
his home state of Pennsylvania in April.

The winner of the first primary, the next week, was long-time frontrunner
Mitt Romney who had almost tied Mr. Santorum in Iowa, and won by a
large margin in the Granite State. Leading in the polls in the next primary,
in South Carolina, many pundits began talking of his quickly sewing up the
nomination in Florida. But before he got there, Newt Gingrich, who had
not done well in Iowa or New Hampshire, made a sudden surge and won
South Carolina by 13 points.

This was now reversed in Florida when Gingrich, who initially had been
leading there by a large margin, faded under a media ad blitz by Romney
and his fellow rivals (as he had in Iowa), and lost the Sunshine State to
Romney by 15 points.

Once again, many pundits declared that frontrunner Romney was now back
on track to sew up the nomination early despite statements by Gingrich,
Santorum and Ron Paul that they would remain in the race. Too late, these
pundits declared, Romney was back on top and heading for more victories.

But then Mr. Romney gave an interview stating he “did not worry about the
very poor because they had a safety net.” This was both taken out of context
and carelessly stated, but regarded as further proof of Romney’s political
insensitivity and the positive aftermath of his victory in Florida was
quickly supplanted by this controversy.

This may not be quite as sensational as the “Curse of Tutankhamen” (the
series of misfortunes which befell those who discovered and opened the
legendary pharaoh’s pyramid tomb in the 1920’s), but it is a curious pattern.
Will it continue? Can Newt Gingrich make still another comeback? Can
Rick Santorum finally win a significant primary or caucus and supplant
Gingrich as Romney’s main challenger?

Mr. Romney is now expected to win Nevada easily. The votes in Missouri
and Minnesota are non-binding to delegates. Michigan is considered
virtually Romney’s home state, so the next real test will be Super Tuesday
in early March where a number of states, including southern ones (where
Gingrich, as he did in South Carolina, may win). Mr. Romney clearly now
has the advantage, but it is not clear if the “curse of winning a primary in
2012” will continue.

Speaking of the curious, which may also be a form of political outrage,
the latest unemployment figures claim that the number of unemployment
in the workforce is down a bit to 8.3%. At the same time, 1.2 million
persons who were out of work were declared non-existent because they
were so disheartened that they were no longer “seeking” employment.
This unilateral gambit is so transparent that it borders on the absurd.
Yet most in the media, all of the Democrats, and even many Republicans
made no effort at objection at this statistical fraud. That includes most of
the Republican aspirants for president. If it weren’t for the Congressional
Budget Office, Robert Samuelson and Rush Limbaugh, most would not
even know this outrage was taking place.

If the Obama administration can get away with making the public believe
real unemployment (somewhere between 10% and 12%) is only 8.3%, they
will soon be declaring there is no deficit.

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Copyright (c) 2012 by Barry Casselman
All rights reserved.

Onward: Downward Or Upward?

As expected, Mitt Romney won a clear victory in the Florida primary,
and by a margin similar to the one Newt Gingrich won in South Carolina.
Of course, Florida is a much larger and more diverse state, and this bodes
well for the former Massachusetts governor. He also continues to have a
decided advantage in cash and organization. But the contest is not quite
over; in fact, if former Speaker Newt Gingrich is to be taken at his word,
the contest might go on for some time.

There are now only four major candidates left in the Republican field.
It would seem now that only two of them could win the nomination. The
presence of the other two candidates is another advantage for Mr.
Romney, particularly Rick Santorum's continued candidacy since he
shares the "Anybody-But-Romney" constituency with Mr. Gingrich.

You could almost hear the sigh of relief from the so-called Republican
establishment last night. Some of them did not originally support Mr.
Romney, but Mr. Gingrich's candidacy has ironically brought them all
together under the rubric of "electability."

Mr. Gingrich could not disagree more with this view. He contends that
Mr. Romney cannot beat Mr. Obama, but that he can. So far, however,
the polls do not support the former speaker's contention.

In order to press on, Mr. Gingrich has edited down his campaign, always
filled with new ideas and perspectives, to populist, anti-establishment
themes that he intends to persuade religious and economic conservatives,
Tea Party supporters, and disaffected Democrats to join his side. The
conventional wisdom, reasserted after Florida, is that Mr. Romney's
nomination is now inevitable, and that Mr. Gingrich has once more
imploded in full view.

In the long term of this contest, that's more likely to be accurate, but in the
short term (that is, the next month or so until after Super Tuesday) it may
not be so. Right now, Mr. Santorum is Mr. Romney's unintended best
friend. As long as the former Pennsylvania senator is actively on the ballot
in upcoming primary and caucus states, it is problematic for Mr. Gingrich
to overtake Mr. Romney even if he makes another political comeback.
Mr. Santorum apparently believes that if he waits long enough, as he did in
Iowa, that he could outlast Mr. Gingrich as Mr. Romney's last challenger
standing. Anything is possible, but this more likely fits the category of
wishful thinking. (He may also want to have a place in an adminIstration
led by President Romney.)

Ron Paul's role in the remaining forty-plus primaries/caucuses is not likely
to change. He will receive a relatively small percentage of the popular vote,
as he did in Florida, occasionally spiking up a bit, especially in caucus
states. Many of his voters are voting Republican because he is in the race,
and it is not clear who would be helped most if he withdrew (which, almost
certainly, he will not do).

What we are going to see now is the grand spectacle of an all-out populist,
anti-establishment campaign from Mr Gingrich, one of the most talented
communication candidates of recent times. I am not suggesting he can
pull it off and be nominated in Tampa, but neither am I categorically saying
he cannot do it.

A lot of folks are mad at him, including his party's establishment (of which
he was once a prominent member) and along with Mr Romney and Mr.
Santorum, are saying nasty things about him. At the same time, he is attracting
some conservative grass roots voters who were for other candidates. Mr.
Gingrich is a rare phenomenon; on the one hand he is an intellectual and a
self-proclaimed visionary, and on the other he is a street fighter. Given his
knack for verbal fireworks, and self-implosions, the next several weeks will be,
as I have already said, a spectacle of high (and low?) order.

I, for one, am putting aside all the current manifestations of anger, rhetorical
emotions and various noisy compulsions to take sides.

I am just going to enjoy the show.

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Copyright (c) 2012 by Barry Casselman
All rights reserved.