Wednesday, July 7, 2021

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: What If Biden Doesn't Run In 2024?

Most speculation about 2024 so far has been about whether
Donald Trump will run or which Republicans would run if he
doesn’t. Normally, it is a given assumption that a first-term
incumbent, in this case Democrat Joe Biden, would be his
party’s nominee again.

But what if Biden, who would be 82 in 2024, decides not to run?

The answer to that question depends on the political and
economic conditions of late 2023 and early 2024 --- something
we can only guess at now.

If the economy is strong, and Biden is popular, his retirement
would be genuinely voluntary, and assuming Vice President
Kamala Harris is well-regarded, she would be heavily favored
to be the Democratic nominee --- and win the election, She
might be challenged, but especially if she had Biden’s support.
she would be unbeatable. That is the Democrat’s best-case
scenario.

If relations between Biden and Harris are not good, or Harris
fails to shine in her role as  vice president, there would be a
major battle for the nomination reminiscent of 2020 when more
than 20 credible candidates ran in the primaries. Bernie Sanders
and Elizabeth Warren would not run, but their younger lefitist
surrogates would. More moderate figures such as Pete Buttigieg
(now Secretary of Transportation), Senator Amy Klobuchar,
Governor Steve Bullock, and businessman Andrew Yang are
likely to give it another try.

Other possible contestants might be Senators Cory Booker,
Bill Casey or Sherrod Brown. Former First Lady Michelle
Obama might run.

The 2022 national mid-term elections could bring new faces to
the Democratic field of candidates. In any event, the 2022
elections will be a test of voter attitudes about current
Democratic policies and those who voice them.

Should  Biden retire in 2024, and Harris does not immediately
become the party’s consensus nominee, there will almost
certainly be a large number of announced presidential
candidates, including a number of aspirants who have no
chance to win. That is because if one can raise a relatively
minimal amount of money (no problem for most elected
officials or self-funding businesspersons), a presidential
campaign prior to the primaries is a bonanza for publicity,
self-promotion and trial runs.

Since age would be stated as or perceived as the reason for a
2024 Biden retirement, youth and vigor would be advantages
for his successor should he not run.

Not surprisingly, they could also be advantages for
whomever the Republicans nominate.

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Copyright (c) by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

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