Saturday, August 24, 2019

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Premature 2020 Conclusions?

There is a growing media consensus that the 2020 Democratic
presidential field has already narrowed to only three candidates.
Those three are Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.
Each of them is a senior person. Biden and Sanders have seen their
poll numbers drop very recently; Warren’s poll numbers have been

This triumvirate allegedly excludes Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg,
Julian Castro, Cory Booker, AndrewYang,  Tulsi Gabbard and
Marianne Williamson --- each of whom have attracted at least some
notice --- as well as Tom Steyer, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke,
Steve Bullock who have also had some attention.

Aside from Biden, there has been no candidate considered a true
frontrunner. Five lesser-known candidates have already dropped
out, and a few more who have not qualified for the next debates are
expected to do so. About a dozen or more, however, might be
expected to remain in the race until actual voting begins.

Although the presumed triumvirate includes the party’s current
range of ideology, center-left to “progressive” left, it does not include
any of the candidates of the party’s younger generation.

It’s very important to remember that we have not yet heard from any
voters --- there are four months until the first caucus and primary.

The presumption that the race is down to three --- or even the five
(including Harris and Buttigieg) who maintain somewhat elevated
poll numbers --- seems obviously premature. Yes, the eventual
nominee might well be one of the three or five, but relying primarily
on polling at this stage is essentially speculative. What if some
well-known (self-funding) billionaire or celebrity enters the race?
What if these still early polls do not accurately reflect actual voter
sentiment? What if one of the now-leading candidates stumbles

With domestic and international events and circumstances
producing new headlines daily, drama in the economy and stock
market, and Donald Trump disrupting the political scene with
regularity, it would seem much too early to decide even the final
stages of the Democratic nomination contest.

We need to see what actual voters think.

Copyright (c) 2019 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

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