Monday, September 14, 2015

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: (Post) Weekend Summary 2

California businesswoman Carly Fiorina didn’t make the
first prime time debate in Cleveland, but she did so well in
the “minor” debate, her poll numbers rose, and she has
been included in the prime time debate at the Reagan
Library in California this coming week. Her combative
style could provide the major fireworks of this second
debate, overshadowing perhaps even Donald Trump who
dominated the first debate and now leads in most polls.
A lot of attention will also likely go to physician Ben Carson
whose poll numbers gave risen dramatically, and to Ohio
Governor John Kasich who also did well in the first debate.
The California debate could also enable New Jersey
Governor Chris Christie and Wisconsin Governor Scott
Walker, both of whom have seen their poll numbers decline,
begin to re-ignite their campaigns.

The British Labour Party has elected Jeremy Corbyn as its
new leader. Mr. Corbyn is considered the figure most to the
left in the party, and his election has unnerved the party’s
center-left wing which had hopes of defeating Conservative
Prime Minister David Cameron in the next British elections.
If the current split in the Labour Party persists, that goal
seems very unlikely.

Although he has sunk considerably in the polls, former
GOP Florida Governor Jeb Bush, like current Democratic
frontrunner Hillary Clinton, remains a formidable figure
in the presidential nomination contest. With rapidly
sinking poll numbers, Mr. Bush is no longer the GOP
frontrunner, but with his massive fundraising, name
recognition, and organization, he has the wherewithal to
remain in the contest long after many of his rivals.
(Former Texas Governor Rick Perry has already withdrawn,
and several others, lacking support and campaign funds, are
likely to do so in the next few months.) The Bush strategy
now appears to wait for the inevitable shrinking of the GOP
field, and then to demonstrate that he is the candidate can
do better than his rivals in the November election.

Many observers have noted that Democratic members of
Congress, including those in the house and senate who are
supporting President Obama’s Iran “deal,” are taking an
open-ended high risk strategy that could be very costly in
elections in 2016, 2018 and 2020. Those Democrats who voted
for Obamacare learned this political lesson in 2010 and 2014
when voters who opposed this legislation either defeated
them or made their safe seats vulnerable. The Iran regime,
which continues to be defiantly anti-U.S., some observers say,
now are holding Democrats hostage even after Mr. Obama
leaves office in January, 2017. The “deal” remains highly
unpopular in virtually all polls of U.S. voters.

Latest polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first states to
vote in the Democratic nomination contest in 2016, show
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders surging ahead of frontrunner
Hillary Clinton, and the former secretary of state continuing
to fade. Democratic Party operatives and voters seem to be
holding their breath to see if Vice President Joe Biden will enter
the contest. Mr. Biden trails Sanders and Clinton in polls, but
has been surging since the real possibility he might run has
risen. Mrs. Clinton still has important advantages in fundraising,
name-recognition and party establishment endorsements, but at
some point relatively soon must reverse her steady downward
favorability poll trends. The election in the U.K. of a far left
new Labour Party leader (Labour is roughly equivalent of the
U.S. Democrats) has unnerved some American observers about
the possibility that Mr. Sanders, hitherto considered
un-nominatable, might actually win. It’s still Mrs. Clinton’s
to lose, but the first caucus and primary are only about three
months away.

Copyright (c) by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

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