Sunday, March 4, 2012

Critical And Closer

This is the only day of the year which is a command, and it is a positive one at that, especially if you're Mitt Romney who just won the Washington state non-binding caucuses decisively. Rick Santorum, who only days ago led this race by double digits in the polls, finished third behind Ron Paul. Santorum had his brief bubble primarily because he stayed in the race as long as he did; once he got it, it was readily apparent he was not ready for prime time.

The "last man standing" now is Newt Gingrich who planned it that way. Mr. Gingrich almost certainly will win Georgia on Tuesday, but he will need to win more than that to head off Romney who is now very close to becoming unstoppable for the nomination. Santorum had been ahead in Tennessee, Oklahoma and Ohio (and by double digits in each), but now could lose two of them, or all three. Romney appears to be erasing Santorum's lead in each of these states. Gingrich has a very good issue, his promise to lower gasoline to $2.50 a gallon, and his critique of President Obama for the current high price. He, or his SuperPac, will likely run a lot of ads on this just before Super Tuesday, but will it be enough to win more than Georgia (including Alabama and Mississippi the following week)?

(For those who follow charts in the stock market, Romney is on the verge of breaking out on the national polls with more than 40% of the Republican vote. But if he fails to do this, his chart pattern would resemble a classic "head-and-shoulders" pattern, and that would be a very bad sign.)

Super Tuesday now looms as critical and potentially dispositive.

Copyright (c) 2012 by Barry Casselman
All rights reserved.

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