The 2024 presidential campaign cycle will begin
formally in less than four months with the first
Republican nationally televised debate in Milwaukee
in August. The exact date, and the debate rules,
are not yet known, but GOP national chair Rona
McDaniels has stated that those who want to be
included in the debate will have to publicly promise
that they will support the eventual party nominee
who will be named at the national Republican
convention next year (that will also be held in
Milwaukee).
Major candidates already announced include
former President Donald Trump, former South
Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, former Arkansas
Governor Asa Hutchinson, businessman Vivek
Ramaswami, former National Security chief John
Bolton, radio host Larry Elder and businessman
Perry Johnson.
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott. former Vice
President Mike Pence and Florida Governor Ron
DeSantis are each expected to announce their
candidacies in coming weeks.
Other Republican political figures are known to be
considering running, and given the August debate
date, would almost certainly declare their intentions
before August.
Current polls indicate Mr. Trump with a two-to-one
lead over his nearest potential rival Mr. Desantis,
with hopefuls Pence, Haley, Ramaswami, Scott,
and Hutchinson is low single digits. Candidates
Johnson, Elder and Bolton so far have little support
in the early polls.
Political commentators have noted that the early
polls reflect name recognition, and likely also reflect
GOP grass roots sympathy response for Mr. Trump
after his recent indictment in New York City, something
widely perceived by most Republicans to be a purely
political attempt to hurt the former president’s
re-election chances. Since Mr. DeSantis has not yet
announced, observers have noted that the Florida
governors true political strength might not yet be
accurately reflected in the polls.
Democrats will hold their 2024 national convention in
Chicago, and have rearranged their primary schedule
to begin in South Carolina, bypassing the traditional
campaign order that has begun with the Iowa caucus
and New Hampshire primary. New Hampshire officials
say they will defy the change and schedule their
primary before South Carolina.
The choice of Chicago for the Democrats’ convention
involves some risk. Although historically the most
frequent convention site of the major parties, in 1968
the convention to seek a replacement for retiring
President Lyndon Johnson turned into chaos in the
city despite the strong urban control of then-Mayor
Richard Daley. Today, Chicago is a crime-ridden city
with an untested new leftist mayor.
Two candidates, activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and
businesswoman Marianne Wiliamson, have formally
declared they are challenging incumbent President
Joe Biden’s renomination, but by next year more
serious potential opponents (so far discouraged from
running) could enter the contest. As part of the
Democrats’ strategy to prevent a serious challenge,
no primary season debates have so far been slated.
But early polls indicate that Mr. Biden has very high
unfavorables, and that his running mate Vice President
Kamala Harris is even more unpopular.
Although he has a famous political surname and is
seen as only a controversial maverick, Mr. Kennedy is
receiving about 20% in early polls — against 60% for
Mr. Biden — with about 20% undecided. Until now,
no prominent Democrat has openly declared they will
run in 2024 against Mr. Biden — although California
Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom has been making
himself conspicuously heard and seen.
In any event, it is much too early to draw conclusions
about the 2024 presidential cycle. But the contest,
slated to hold its first actual voting early next year, has
already begun in earnest. We don’t yet have the full cast
of its characters, but with the Republican debates set to
begin very soon, the time has come to begin paying more
attention.
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Copyright (c) 2023 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.
