THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Political Second Acts

The recent elections in Brazil and Israel illustrate

the phenomenon of a political comeback in an era

when such career electoral revivals in democratic 

nations are otherwise considered unlikely.

In Brazil, Luiz Inicio da Silva, known as “Lula,” 

was a left populist president from 2003 to 2010,

then defeated for re-election, later indicted for 

corruption, convicted and sent to prison in 2019. 

But in 2021 he was released when the  

Brazilian supreme court nullified his conviction,

enabling him to run for president again in 2022

against the controversial incumbent Jair

Bolisaro (a right populist). In both stages of this

election, polls predicted Lula would win by much

larger margins than he did, but Lula is once

again president of Brazil.

In Israel, long-time prime minister (1996-1999

and 2009-2021) Benjamin Netanyahu, known as

“Bibi,” led his party coalition, thus regaining the

premiership, to a surprise decisive victory when

the coalition formed to defeat him in 2021 

collapsed, and required Israelis to go to the 

polls for the fourth time in five years. Polls just

prior to the election predicted Netanyahu would

likely come up short of the necessary 61 seats in

the Knesset (parliament) to form a government, 

but Bibi’s coalition actually won 64 seats.

In the United Kingdom, former Prime Minister

Boris Johnson (2019-2022), returned to England

from a Caribbean vacation intending to run for

Conservative Party leadership, and therefore 

return as prime minister, when his successor Liz

Truss resigned suddenly after only three months

in office. Finding his former chancellor of the

exchequer Rishi Sunak probably already had 

the votes to win, he chose not to run now, but is 

expected to make a comeback attempt in the 

future.

Although political career revivals are rare in the 

U.S. (only Grover Cleveland in the 19th century

lost his presidential re-election, but came back to

win four years later), they are more common in

the United Kingdom where prime ministers have

routinely lost, but had second non-consecutive

terms in office. Some of them did this multiple 

times, most notably Benjamin Disraeli and 

William Gladstone in the 19th century. After a 

shocking defeat in 1945, Winston Churchill 

returned as prime minister later in the postwar

period.

Former U.S. President Trump, who was defeated

for re-election in 2020, announced, as expected,

his candidacy for 2024 just after the 2022 midterm 

elections. But although he has remained popular 

with a large base of GOP voters, and would be 

formidable for his party’s nomination, his sharply 

unfavorable standing outside his base make it 

problematic for him to successfully emulate 

Grover Cleveland. Mr. Trump will be over 80 

years old in 2024.

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Copyright (c) 2022 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved. 

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: The Voters Have The Last Word

As readers of this column know, I have become

very cautious about predicting what voters will do,

and in spite of the expectation of most Republicans

and, yes, Democrats, too (as well as most pundits,

myself included) that the 2022 national mid-term

elections would be a rout, the voters' decisions

were more mixed and localized than anticipated.

A so-called "red wave" did not fully materialize,

although about 4 million more votes were cast

for Republican congressional candidates than

Democrats across the nation. This fact paradoxically

matched most pre-election generic congressional

polls that were interpreted to predict a red wave.

The explanation of how this happened can be seen

by examining the results by states. The 2022 GOP

generic advantage was assumed by most to follow

the 2020 national election model in which very large

states such as California and New York gave

candidate Joe Biden huge margins, thus giving him

millions of popular vote margin, a single digit

generic advantage. But in the 2022 mid-terms, total

votes for congressional candidates in those and

other blue states were much closer than in 2020,

with the consequence that more of the Democrat's

generic vote was distributed to other states, and

particularly to close races.

Nevertheless, Republicans gained seats in 2022

and will, when all races  are settled, have enough

to control the U.S. House of Representatives,

which was one of their two primary goals.

One senate contest is still too close to call.

Georgia will go to a December 6 run-off. The

end result for the Republicans will be the status

quo: control by the Democrats.

Some states had electoral wipeouts. Minnesota

went almost completely blue (except for 4 of their

8 congressional seats), and neighboring Iowa

went completely red, including all of its U.S. house

seats. Republicans gained four seats each in

Florida and New York. Democrats held on to

most of their vulnerable house and senate seats

elsewhere.

Democrats picked up governorships in Maryland

and Massachusetts, but both of these states are

very blue. Their outgoing term-limited GOP

incumbents were an anomaly. Republicans picked

up a governor in previously blue Nevada, and

Democrats gained a governor in Arizona. The

majority of state legislators are still Republican.

In short, no GOP rout, but a small red wave with

a blue breakwater. There was something for both

Republicans and Democrats to cheer about, as

well as each had their disappointments.

Now the 2024 presidential election cycle begins.

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Copyright (c) 2022 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.