THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Headlines In September

 CANADIAN ELECTIONS

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called as early

election hoping to win a majority of seats in his nation’s

parliament, but the strategy has failed as his Liberal Party

won almost the same number of seats they held in their

minority government. The main opposition Conservative 

Party gained only 3 seats, while the leftist New Democratic

Party won enough seats again to provide Trudeau with the

necessary majority to lead the country he has led since

2015. A sizable bloc of seats was also won by the Quebec

nationalist party in Canada’s second largest province.

Half of Trudeau’s party’s seats came from Ontario, the

largest province. Conservative Party strength was in

western Canada. Although the Trudeau’s Liberals won the

most seats, they were virtually tied with the Conservatives

in the national popular vote. Trudeau’s gamble clouds his 

political future, and he will once again have to satisfy his 

parliamentary partners, the New Democrats.

OVERRULING “THE SQUAD”

In a last-minute gambit, nine anti-Israel Democrats in the

U.S. House had $1 billion in aid to Israel’s vital “Iron  Dome”

system deleted from the infrastructure bill before Congress,

threatening not to vote for the bill if the aid were not removed.

Led by the radical “Squad” that includes Minnesota 5th

District Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, their victory was brief

as the U.S. House then immediately passed the aid in  a

separate bill with a bipartisan vote of 420 to 9 with 2 voting 

“present,” and one Republican joining the negatives.

NEW U.S./U.K./AUSTRALIA PACT

In a week of foreign policy debacles and other bad news,

President Biden joined traditional allies Australia and the

United Kingdom in  a domestically popular new defense

pact known as “AUKUS.” The agreement calls for mutual

defense cooperation to meet the new aggressive challenge

from China, and includes the sale of U.S. nuclear submarines

to Australia. The latter led Australia to cancel an earlier

order for French nuclear subs, and  deeply upset French

President Macron, who recalled his ambassador to the

U.S., and other European allies (who were not consulted on

the move). The pact was initiated by British Prime Minister

Boris Johnson who, like Mr. Biden, had not received much

good foreign policy news recently.

BORDER CRISIS WORSENS

With a Mexican border crisis clearly worsening despite

denials by the Biden administration and many privately

embarrassed Democratic leaders, record numbers of 

undocumented would-be immigrants from South and

Central  America and the Caribbean are at or crossing the

Mexican border. Some are unaccompanied children, and

none are required to be vaccinated to enter the U.S. The

images of crowded refugees at border points and bridges,

previously downplayed by many in the establishment 

media, is now a major story beyond the directly-affected

border states. Vice President Kamala Harris, charged by

President Biden to manage the crisis, is virtually invisible.

Local Democrats seeking re-election in 2022 are increasingly

worried by political fallout from the crisis.

VIRGINIA IN PLAY?

Most recent polls show the Virginia race for governor,

scheduled to take place in five weeks, to be too close to call.

Pitting former Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe

against Republican busInessman Glenn Youngkin, the

race had not been expected to be close in a state which has

voted consistently Democratic in  recent years. The current

Democratic incumbent is term-limited. Virginia was carried

by Joe Biden by 10 points in 2020. Although rural Virginia

remains heavily Republican, the Washington, DC suburbs

in the state have been increasingly Democratic because so

many work for the federal government, and commute.

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Copyright (c) 2021 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved. 

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Early Critical Mass

The political cliches about commenting on and predicting

future elections which are many months away don’t always

hold up in all circumstances — and this might be the case 

in the current national mid-term cycle. 

The reason for this is the fact that major races for

governor, senator and congressperson now require so

much money that individuals must make their decisions

to run and begin fundraising earlier than in the past. This

is true for incumbents as well as challengers, although

incumbents are perhaps more concerned about likely

defeat if their districts are likely to be unfavorably

redrawn or specific issues  endanger their re-election.

Both parties now face such an unconventional cycle more

than a year before election day. 

For Democrats, foreign and domestic crises have seen a

sudden and precipitous drop in President Joe Biden’s

popularity because of his mishandling the U.S. military

withdrawal from Afghanistan. Even before Afghanistan,

the Mexican border crisis was causing serious problems

for Democratic incumbents in southeastern states (Texas,

Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada) with some

already announcing their retirements. Perhaps most

significantly, potentially strong challengers to vulnerable

Republican incumbents are feeling the current negative

environment — and with the resulting uncertainty about

next year, possibly deciding not to run. The retirement of

a 13-term Democratic congressman in Wisconsin indicates

the negatives are occurring nationally, especially in

suburban districts and battleground northern states

where progressive policies of defunding the police,

politicizing the schools, packing the U.S. supreme court,

etc., are very unpopular outside inner cities.

The political environment might improve for the

Democrats next year, but candidates must, in most

cases. make up their minds now when their prospects

appear low.

For different reasons, Republican incumbents and

challengers might face negative circumstances, and

might decide not to run in 2022. In fact, four sitting

U.S. GOP senators have already  announced their

retirement. The dilemma for Republicans next year is

the activity of former President Donald Trump in

some gubernatorial, senate and house races —  some

involving GOP incumbents — where his preferred

and endorsed candidate might not be the strongest

candidate for the office. This might be the case in

Arizona, for example. In a competitive 2022 race,

a Republican nominee without Mr. Trumps’s

support  would be at a distinct disadvantage. All

polls show that Trump supporters still dominate 

the GOP voter base.

The two leaders of their parties are thus key to the

eventual outcome of the 2022 elections, and as well

are key in many cases to the critical period  now

taking place when candidates are making their

decisions about next year.

One political commonplace is axiomatic, i.e., that

candidates matter. Wave elections and local

circumstances might allow weaker nominees

occasionally to win, but generally only quality

candidates, especially challengers to incumbents,

prevail with voters.

When the strongest candidates decide not to run

because of gloomy prospects well before election

day, opportunities are sometimes lost. A case in

point, was the contest for the 1992 Democratic

presidential nomination. President George H.W.

Bush was so popular following the 1991 Gulf War

victory that many strong Democratic candidates

decided not to run, and allowed an unknown and

controversial Bill Clinton to win the nomination.

By mid-1992, the economy had tanked, Ross

Perot was running as a third party candidate,

and in November, Clinton won.

It is true that a political environment can change

dramatically in a matter of months, but it is also

true that the critical period when candidates

decide whether to run or not has irreversible

consequences long before election day.

We are in such a period now — a year before

voters go to the polls.

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Copyright (c) 2021 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.