THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: 2024 Parallels?

Some history-minded folks are now looking back to the terms
of President Grover Cleveland (1885-89 and 1893-97) because
he is the only person to serve in two non-consecutive terms.
But those doing so are not finding other parallels for s possible
2024 outcome. Cleveland was a Democrat, and won the popular
vote in all three of his presidential elections (losing narrowly
the electoral college vote to Republican Benjamin Harrison in
1888).

Other folks are looking back to the attempt of President
Theodore Roosevelt (1901-1909) to win a non-consecutive third
term in 1912 as a third party nominee, but although Roosevelt
got more popular and electoral votes than the GOP incumbent
William Howard Taft, he came in a distant second to Democrat
Woodrow Wilson (who clearly would have lost to Taft had
Roosevelt not been running).

In fact, throughout the history of U.S. presidential elections,
the most that third party candidates accomplish is to enable
underdog major party nominees to win as happened in 1860
with Abraham Lincoln, in 1912 with Wilson, in 1968 (perhaps)
with Richard Nixon, in 1992 (probably) with Bill Clinton, and
in 2000 with George W. Bush.

2024 is very far away politically. The 2022 national mid-term
elections will be quite important as a voter test of Biden
administration policies and results. Because of his age, Mr.
Biden could be the first modern president to retire voluntarily
after one four-year term. (Presidents Theodore Roosevelt,
Calvin Coolidge and Harry Truman each was only elected
once, but each also filled out most of the term of a president
who died in office.)

Historical parallels seem harder to come by these days. Old
patterns are replaced. John Kennedy was the first Catholic to be
elected president; Ronald Reagan the first movie star to win the
top job, Geraldine Ferraro the first woman vice presidential
nominee (and the first Italian-American on a national ticket),
Joe Lieberman the first Jewish vice presidential nominee,
Barack Obama the first black president, Mitt Romney
the first Mormon presidential nominee. Hillary Clinton the first
woman presidential nominee,  Donald Trump the first TV
celebrity president, and Kamala Harris the first black woman
vice president.

In 2016, 2020 and almost certainly in 2024, both parties fielded,
or will field, serious presidential candidates with a great variety
of religious, racial, gender, ethnic and occupational backgrounds
and heritages.

Since every voter belongs to multiple interest groups (e.g., a
female Catholic Hispanic physician) and has views on a variety
of “hot button” issues (e.g., abortion, guns, political correctness,
etc.), the stereotypes of the past have mostly evaporated. Further
complicating presidential election forecasting and use of past
history patterns is the recent surge of media bias and inaccurate
polling.

In short, looking ahead to 2024 is more speculative than such
activity has ever been.

The odds might better at a local race track.


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Copyright (c) 2021 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Netanyahu Replaced And Other News

NETANYAHU REPLACED
Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was
replaced by Naftali Bennett in a vote by the Knesset, the nation’s
parliament. The vote was 60-59. The one-vote margin indicates
the fragility of the coalition supporting the new government, a
coalition made up of parties from the left and the right, and
including for  the first time, a small Arab party. A no-confidence
vote at any time would precipitate a new national election, the fifth
in four years. The protracted negotiations to form the coalition
was motivated primarily by personal antipathy to Mr. Netanyahu
who, in a fiery final speech, vowed to return to power.

VIRGINIA COULD BE 2021 BATTLEGROUND STATE
There are only three major races, all for governor, this year, and
Democrats are favored to win all of them. But the contest in
Virginia could become very competitive because Republicans have
nominated an appealing outsider, self-funding private equity
investor Glenn Youngkin to take on former Democratic Governor
Terry McAuliffe in November. Controversial Democratic Governor
Norhrop is retiring. McAuliffe  is well-known not only as a
former governor, but also as a former national Democratic
chair, and for his close ties to both Bill and Hillary Clinton. In
contrast, Youngkin is virtually unknown to most Virginians, and
has no political track record to attack. Both candidates face
divided factions within their own parties, reflecting similar
divisions across the country. The GOP is strong in outstate
Virginia, but this is usually offset by heavy liberal DC suburban
voters who work in DC, but live in Virginia.  This race will be
watched nationally to see if Youngkin’s skillful nomination win
can be repeated in a general election. Just as McAuliffe, a liberal,
must keep more radical voters in his party on board, Youngkin
needs both pro-Trump conservatives and anti-Trump moderates.

COURTS COULD DO MANY STATES’ REDISTRICTING
Although reapportionment of U.S. house seats, based on the
2020 census, has been completed, redistricting within many
states has not been done because the final numbers for each
state have not yet been released,  and reportedly won’t be
until September --- an unusually late date. But district
boundaries must be drawn by December 31, 2021 if they are
to apply to the 2022 national mid-term elections. States unable
to meet the deadline will likely have it done by the courts.

INFRASTRUCTURE LEGISLATION BIPARTISAN?
Five U.S. senators from each party have negotiated a
preliminary bipartisan approach to pending infrastructure
legislation, but its impact so far is uncertain.

WESTERN U.S. DROUGHT LOOMING
The western U.S., especially California and southwestern
states, are 77% in severe drought.

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Copyright (c) 2021 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.