THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Beyond Melodrama In D.C.

Following the melodrama of the ouster of Speaker of 

the House Kevin McCarthy two weeks ago, the

Republican majority have successively nominated

two members, Steve Scalise of Louisiana and Jim

Jordan of Ohio to succeed him, but failed in both cases

to produce the 217 votes necessary for election. Mr.

Jordan, after coming up short on three ballots,

suspended his effort, and said he would support electing

the current Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry of

North Carolina, thus giving him, albeit temporary, 

expanded powers so that the House can resume doing

business over the next several weeks, including acting

on aid to Ukraine and Israel, as well as vote  before the

new deadline to pass the national debt limit.

The ouster of Mr, McCarthy was made possible when,

to win the speakership, he agreed to a rule that only

a tiny group in his GOP caucus could remove him as

speaker. It was almost certain then that a few unhappy

GOP members would eventually take advantage of

this rule — and when Speaker McCarthy agreed to a

temporary delay in acting on the proposed budget

deficit, a small number of  his Republican colleagues

moved successfully to remove him as speaker.

When GOP members then nominated Majority Leader

Steve Scalise to replace Mr. McCarthy as speaker,

the caucus failed to elect him, and subsequently

nominated Jim Jordan of Ohio to be the next speaker.

After three ballots, Mr. Jordan was several votes short 

of what needed to be elected, and he then agreed to

suspend his effort, as already noted, and to vote to 

give Mr. McHenry added powers so that the House 

could resume its regular business over the next 

several weeks.

This plan was rejected by the whole GOP caucus,

including canceling Mr, Jordan’s nomination.

The Republican majority is now back to its condition

just after Speaker McCarthy’s removal, i.e., no speaker

and no ability to conduct House business.

Several members have now announced they will run

for speaker, but no one yet appears to have the 217

votes necessary to win.

The Democratic minority has been united in casting its

212 votes for Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on every

ballot so far, and have understandably painted the GOP

majority as dysfunctional.

Speaker Pro Tem McHenry probably has enough votes

to expand his powers so that the House could function

through January, but he has so far refused  to serve in

any capacity beyond his current duties to preside over 

the vote for a permanent speaker.

The GOP caucus has not yet rescinded the rule that one

member can move to vacate the speakership, and with as

few as five other members, force a speaker to step down.

If this is not done, it seems impossible for the Republican

majority to function going forward.

As the days go by, and the next deficit deadline approaches,

as does the necessity of the House to act also on critical

legislation regarding aid to Ukraine and Israel, the political

damage to the prospects for the Republican Party in general

in 2024, and the re-election of GOP members, worsens.

If not resolved very soon, it becomes a spectacle unworthy 

of a party which seeks to govern the nation in 2025.

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Copyright (c) 2023 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

 

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Melodrama In The House

When he ran for Speaker of the House of Representatives

last January, California Congressman Kevin McCarthy

persisted through fifteen ballots to win the post, but only

after he agreed to change the House rules. One of those

changed rules has now brought an end to his speakership,

and this should be foremost instructive to the next speaker.

Mr. McCarthy proved over the next eight-plus months to be

an adroit and better-than-expected leader of his caucus

and for his Republican Party, but his tenure was always on

shaky ground because as part of his bargain with those

who were blocking his election, he agreed that only a single

GOP House member could bring a motion to remove him

as speaker, Because the GOP margin in the House was 

only 222 to 213, just five votes, that meant it would not be

difficult for a small dissatisfied minority to take him out of

his office.

It was the fatal flaw in this bargain which made the legendary

Sword of Damocles seem like a security blanket by 

comparison. His colleague Matt Gaetz, who had led the

initial opposition to McCarthy, wielded the rule as a weapon

of political blackmail over the next eight months, and when

Speaker McCarthy passed, with Democrat votes, a 45-day 

continuing resolution to avoid a partial government shutdown, 

he and seven other GOP hardline deficit hawks joined 208

Democrats to vacate Mr. McCarthy’s speakership. (Nine

members did not vote on the motion.)

The now former speaker has announced he will not run for

the post again, surprising many of his supporters, and so 

there will be a new speaker.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is the heavy favorite

to be the new speaker. Well-liked by his colleagues, he even

has the support of Mr.. Gaetz. There will likely also be other

candidates, and the voting will begin Wednesday, October 11,

according to Speaker Pro Tem Congressman Patrick McHenry

of North Carolina who is temporarily in charge until a new 

speaker is chosen.

It is too early to fairly assess the impact of Mr. McCarthy’s

downfall. Some Democrats and many media commentators

are suggesting it will hurt Republican prospects for 2024,

but assuming the new speaker, whoever it is, insists on the

single-member vacate rule change, the GOP House majority,

albeit small, could re-emerge again as an effective body of

opposition it had become under Speaker McCarthy — and

do well in the 2024 national election cycle.

If that rule is not changed, the recent scenario will almost

certainly recur under the new speaker. Should that happen,

voters would likely conclude that the conservative party was

unable to effectively function, and Democrats could retake 

control in 2025.

As for Matt Gaetz, his role in Kevin McCarthy’s downfall will 

likely not be forgotten. Already a political loner, he now will

learn the price of his intraparty revolt, and even if his caucus

now emerges stronger, he is likely to find he has few political

friends in his own party in the House.
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Copyright (c) 2023 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved. 

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: A Neglected Factor?

Although the national and presidential elections

are more than a year away, the political calendar,

particularly its filing deadlines, are now coming

up very soon. So is the window of time for

recruiting candidates, organizing crucial Senate 

and House campaigns, fundraising, opposition

research, and so much of the preparation for 

contemporary politics prior to a major election.

The 2024 cycle is unusual in many ways, not the

least of which are likely significant third party 

candidates running for president. Activity is now 

underway nationally for the No Labels Party,  

Popular Party, and the return of the Green Party

and Libertarian Party. These third parties not

only field presidential candidates who might

drain vital votes from major party presidential

nominees, but often also put forward their own

candidates down ballot for Senate, House and 

governor. They can also affect election outcomes.

Filing and qualification deadlines for third party 

ballot access are not the only upcoming dates to 

be considered. Every political contest has a filing 

cut-off date, and these vary from state to state. 

Filing dates for candidates for 2024 state 

primaries occur in some cases as early as 

October, 2023, and most of them are in 

December and January. There are numerous 

competitive or battleground Senate and House

races likely this cycle, but not all probable

nominees to challenge incumbents are yet in

place. Only this week, David McCormick, the

likely Republican nominee, is finally announcing 

his candidacy in the battleground Pennsylvania 

U.S. Senate race. Other likely competitive 2024

Senate and House races do not yet have major

challengers declared running.

[I work with and frequently go to Ballotpedia

(ballotpedia.org ) for authoritative local, state, and

national election information, including state filing

dates. Readers going to this site can obtain 

individual 2024 filing deadlines as they are made 

available from each state — as well as 

exhaustive details about candidates, polls,

fundraising, ballot history and endorsements.]

Also, several incumbents of both parties

are only now announcing their decisions to

retire. An example of this was Utah Senator

Mitt Romney a few days ago revealing he will 

not run for re-election next year. In his case, his 

successor will almost certainly be a Republican, 

but in other instances, especially certain House 

races, late decisions, usually for health reasons,

could lead to now unanticipated pick-ups by the 

other party.

A national effort by some Democrats to prevent

Donald Trump’s name from appearing on 

individual state ballots next November, assuming 

that he would be the Republican Party presidential 

nominee, is underway through legal actions to some

secretaries of state. These unprecedented suits 

contend that ambiguous Constitutional language 

disqualifies Trump from the federal ballot. So far, 

courts have rejected these efforts, and some 

secretaries of state have declined to deny Trump

ballot access unless ordered to do so by appropriate 

courts, but the issue remains for now unresolved.

The timing of major political campaigns has

changed dramatically in recent years. Many factors

have caused this to happen. Campaign financing is

certainly a major factor, and organizing, media

buying, voter identification, and get-out-the-vote

strategies also are factors.

But the political calendar is now often overlooked for

its importance. Pundits frequently utter cliches about

voter decisions being made late, inaccurate early polls

and that much can happen late in any cycle, but the 

influence of the political calendar, imposing earlier 

and earlier campaign decisions, is a factor of no 

little consequence.

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Copyright (c) 2023 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved