.
The Democrat-Farmer-Labor (DFL) 2026 U.S.
Senate primary might be the meanest intraparty
fight in modern Minnesota politics.
With only two weeks to go before primary election
dau on August 11, the question is how much meaner
will it get.
Incumbent DFL U.S. Senator Tina Smith announced
her retirement in 2025, and it was assumed that
the DFL nominee would be the next senator. (No
Republican had won a Minnesota Senate seat since
2002.)
In fact, it has been many election cycles since a
Republican has held any statewide office in
Minnesota.
Two key recent developments could change this
DFL domination, at least in U.S. Senate races,
9n 2926.
First, widespread allegations of fraud in state
programs, involving billions of taxpayer dollars
have been reported and are under investigation.
Since DFLer hold all the offices which oversee
these programs, a backlash, especially against
the DFL administration of Governor Tim Walz,
is occurring from Minnesota voters.
Second, the Republican’s leading Senate
candidate is Michelle Tafoya, a well-known and
popular sports broadcaster who has quickly
impressed political observers with her grasp of
the issues despite not having run for political
office before.
Peggy Flanagan sought and won the DFL
endorsement for the Senate seat, Angie Craig
skipped the endorsement, and has gone
directly to the August DFL primary. In recent
years, DFL voters have often ignored the
party endorsement for major offices.
In their public debates, the two candidates
have become increasingly confrontive and
personal. Their ads against each other, many
by PACs whose content the candidates
can’t control, have become increasingly mean.
Polls, which often do not accurately reflect
primary voters, indicate a close race. Libe;ral
Craig appears strong in the more moderate
suburbs, progressive Flanagan’s voter base is
in the more radical Twin Cities. Craig has the
most campaign finds; Flanagan has the most
endorsements.
But the assumption that the primary winner
will automatically triumph in November is
no longer certain.
Tafoya attended her party convention, but
did not commit to accepting the endorsement.
The GOP convention voting was marred by.
technical problems, so any contested
endorsement this year is virtually meaningless.
Tafoya, polls indicate, is far ahead of other
candidates, and is expected to win her primary
easily.
This outcome leads to a too-close-to-call
Senate seat election in November. Thr DFL
party voter ID and GOTV efforts are much
superior to those of the GOP which remains
weak and disorganized, Tafoya will depend
primarily on her own campaigm and its
resources, The DFL nominee will need to
heal her opponent’s supporters bruised
feelings. And both candidates will need to
be able to appeal ti the growing number
of independent voters.
Thw Senate race in Minnesota appears to be
one of the more interesting and unexpected ones
in this year’s midterm election cycle.
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Copyright (c) 2026 vy Barry Casselman. All rights reserved
