Tuesday, July 15, 2025

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: An Early Look At Upcoming Races For Governor

With so much public attention on the political changes

taking place at the federal level under the new Trump

administration, the partisan orientation  at the state

level is easily overlooked.


Two governor ships will be decided  this November, and

thirty-six more will be on the ballot in next year’s 

mid-term elections.


Currently, there are twenty-seven Republican governors

and twenty-three Democrats who hold their states’

highest executive office.


The two up for election in 2025 are Virginia (GOP 

incumbent) and New Jersey (Democrat incumbent),

but both are open races since their current

governors are term-limited. Democrats are favored to

win both these races although they are likely to be

competitive. Virginia and New Jersey in recent years

have favored liberal statewide candidates, although

conservative Virginia Governor Glen Youngkin’s victory 

was an upset.


In 2026, ten governorships held by Democrats, and

fifteen held by Republicans, are considered “safe”

races.


The competitive Democrat races include California

(open), Colorado (open), Wisconsin, Kansas,

Minnesota, Maine, Michigan and New Mexico —

incumbents are expected to run in the latter six states.


The battleground Republican races include Nevada,

Georgia and Iowa, the laltter two will be open contests.


Some pundits rate the Pennsylvania race as a toss-up,

but incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro is very popular

despite the Keystone State trending conservative, and

so far, the GOP has not come up with a strong candidate.


Many commentators rate the Minnesota race as “safe”

for the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL), but

a recent major poll show his re-election numbers in the

negative. If he is the DFL nominee in 2026, the race

will likely be competitive.


It is still quite early in the 2026 gubernatorial races.

Many of the nominees, Republican and Democrat, are

still unknown. Some of the races which are rated as

“safe” could become competitive.


As the first mid-term election of a new president, 2026

historically favors the Democrats, but that advantage

could be illusory since most of the battleground races 

for governor are now held by Democrats.


Unlike the federal races in a mid-term election, contests

for governor and other statewide races usually depend

on local state issues. But in the era of the second

Trump administration, intensity of support or opposition

to the president and his policies could play a greater role

than usual in next year’s campaigns.


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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.





 

Monday, June 30, 2025

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: A Close Race For Minnesota Governor Next Year?


A recent poll in Minnesota indicates that incumbent

Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Governor Tim Walz,

now finishing his second term in the office, no longer

has net positive approval among polled Minnesota

voters. The negative margin, according to the poll, is 

small, although the negative number is larger when 

the question is asked if voters would support him for

re-election to a third term.


Governor Walz has not yet announced whether he

intends to run for a third term, but following his

unsuccessful candidacy as the vice presidential

nominee on the 2024 Kamala Harris Democrtic

presidential ticket, he has indicated his continued 

interest in national politics. He has been mentioned

as a possible presidential candidate in 2028,


Should he decide to run in 2028, it would seem

likely he would want to be running as a governor

rather than a private citizen three years out of office


Before becoming governor, Walz served as a 

congressman from Minnesota’s First District.


Although several DFL elected officials are known

to be interested in running for governor, no one

is likely to make any announcements until Walz

make his decision. If he does run, it is also likely

no major figure in his party would run against him.


Meanwhile, Republicans sensing a growing

strength among Minnesota voters, have at least

three serious candidates who could challenge

Walz in 2024.


Dr, Scott Jensen was Walz’s GOP opponent in

2022. A respected medical doctor, his candidacy

was hurt by his outspoken pro-life position in

the campaign. He has successfully rebuffed

efforts to take away his medical license, efforts

widely perceived as political and groundless.

He continues to have support in rural Minnesota.


GOP State Representative Kristin Robbins has

made a mark in her terms in the state House

of representatives, and has won election and

re-election decisively in her suburban Minneapolis

district. Before her election, she served as executive

director of the Economics Club of Minnesota

where she worked with top leaders of the Minnesota

business community.


Kendall Quarles is a respected black entrepreneur

who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2020, but

has stayed in public life through his regular TV 

commentary.


Other candidates might enter this race which could

easily be very competitive in November, 2026.


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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Senate Mid-Term Battlegrounds Update

An early survey of next year’s mid-term U.S. Senate races

indicates that despite the fact that 22 Republican 

incumbent seats are on the ballot, and just 13 Democrat

incumbent seats, only 6 seats, 4 Democrats and 2 

Republicans now appear to be close races. 


With the GOP currently holding a 53-47 majority, this is 

good news for conservatives, but it is always possible

that more incumbent seats could become vulnerable,

and the usual advantage of the opposition party in a new

president’s first mid-term could come into play.


The 6 battleground races are in Georgia, Maine, Michigan,

Minnesota, New Hampshire and North Carolina. 


Although they are usually safe GOP seats, incumbents in 

Texas and Louisiana are facing intraparty challenges in 

their primaries, and could provide Democrats with an

opportunity. Other states, including Kentucky and 

Colorado could also develop into closer contests.


One of the most vulnerable incumbents is Georgia

Democrat Jon Ossoff who barely won his seat in a run-off

in 2020. Georgia is  usually a red state, but it sends two

Democrats to the Senate. Until he decided not to run for

the seat next year, popular GOP Governor Brian Kemp

was the heavy favorite to win his party’s nomination and

to defeat Ossoff in November. Lacking a frontrunner to

oppose Ossoff, Republicans now must scramble if they

are to pick up this seat.


Maine Senator Susan Collins is the only GOP senator in 

the U.S. northeast, and always faces a serious challenge

from the Democrats. In the past, she has come out on

top on election day, but this might be her most vulnerable

race.


Incumbent Michigan Democrat Senator Gary Peters  is 

retiring, and the likely GOP nominee for the open seat,

former Congressman Mike Rogers will be formidable

after almost winning the previous open seat in 2024. 

There are numerous Democrats vying for the seat, but

no frontrunner yet. Although the state has been 

leaning blue, President Trump carried it in 2024.


Very blue Minnesota presented Republicans with a

pick-up opportunity when Democrat incumbent Tina

Smith announced her retirement. Lt. Governor Peggy

Flanagan and 2nd District Congresswoman Angie

Craig, both Democrats, are running. Craig has been a

formidable campaigner in her purple district. Meanwhile,

Republicans have not yet a candidate in the race who

can win.


Another GOP pick-up opportunity occurred when New

Hampshire Democrat Jeanne Shaheen decided to

retire next year. This open seat race will probably be

between former U,S, Senator (from Massachusetts)

Scott brown, a Republican, vs Democrat Congressman

Chris Pappas. Brown moved to this state a dozen years 

ago. This contest leans Democrat, but it could be a very

close race.


Finally, GOP incumbent Thom Tillis of North Carolina is

facing a potentially serious challenge in his first 

re-election. Former Governor Ray Cooper could be

formidable if he ran, but there are several other

liberal candidates if he does not run.This state leans

red, but Democrats are turning the state more purple.


Republicans also have to defend an open seat in

Kentucky, where long-time incumbent Mitch McConnell

is retiring. State Attorney General Daniel Cameron and

Congressman Andy Barr, both Republicans, are already

in the race, but CNN commentator Scott Jennings  could

receive an all-important endorsement from President

Trump and win the nomination. When popular Governor

Andy Beshear decided not to run, this became a likely

GOP race.


In two strongly red states, Incumbent Republicans are

facing serious primary challenges from other Republicans.

Texas senator John Cornyn actually currently trails in

polls, and Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy is facing a 

strong challenge. If one or both of these incumbents lost

their primaries, these safe GOP seats might become 

competitive. 


Although it’s still early, the 2026 U.S. senate races are 

now coming into more focus. These races will likely see 

massive spending, and fundraising for them has to

begin as early as possible. Recruitment for candidates

against incumbents or for open seats is always a key

factor, and as pointed out above, both Democrats and

Republicans still have work to do —- with time quickly

running out.


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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.