Friday, October 24, 2014

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: If There Is a "Wave," What Might Happen?

I am writing this BEFORE the votes are counted on
election day; in fact, I am writing this several days
beforehand. I am NOT predicting any of the outcomes
discussed here; I am only suggesting what might happen
if the much-discussed political “wave” does occur (or
does not occur) on November 4.

I want to point out that political waves come in various
sizes. Furthermore, it is quite possible that there will be
no true wave this cycle, only a typical election in which
the party holding the White House loses some seats in
the U.S. house and senate.

But let’s say, for argument’s sake, there IS a wave.

If there is a wave, its intensity and impact will depend on
how emotionally motivated significant numbers of voters,
most of them independents or non-party-affiliated, are on
election day. This general group usually make up most of
the so-called undecided voters, especially those who make
up their minds at the very end of the campaign, and then
go to the polls.

At this late date, it is very difficult to imagine a scenario in
which “wave” voters would turn to Democratic candidates.
If there is a wave in 2014, it will be most likely a conservative
and/or anti-Obama wave.

Currently, not taking into account a wave, there is a general
consensus that Republicans will pick up 5-7 U.S. senate
seats, 5-10 U.S. house seats, and that Democrats will gain a
net of 3-4 governorships. That would be a decent night for the
conservative party, but no wave. If the Democrats can hold
GOP gains in the senate to five or less, it would actually be a
relatively good night for the Democrats.

A true “wave,” in my opinion, would require many more
undecided voters to vote Republican, and many Democrats to
stay home. A true wave would produce a net gain of 8-10
Republican senators, 11-15 Republican house members, and
close to a draw in net new governors. A “tsunami,” on the other
hand, would bring in 11-15 new GOP senators, 16-25 new GOP
house members, and the surprise of some net gains in GOP
governors.

The “tsunami” scenario in 2014 seems unlikely with about
two weeks to go, but a more modest “wave” does not.
Considering the Democratic advantages of cash and their
get-out-the-effort, a more modest “traditional” mid-term
election with only some congressional gains for the GOP, and
Democrats picking a small number of governorships is also
quite possible.

I want to repeat what I have said now for many months. Any
kind of true wave, moderate or heavy, does not appear visible
until either just before election day, or when the vote is counted.
Waves are almost always late-breaking. Not only that, waves
can peak too soon or, as in the 1968 presidential election, not
reach their peak in time for the actual voting. (“President”
Hubert Humphrey could have lectured on that scenario!)

This discussion is obviously speculative. Even with only days to
go before election day, the dimensions of the 2014 cycle are
unclear. Waves are relatively rare electoral occurrences. When
they do happen, however, they often bring surprises and great
shock in their wake.

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Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Obama On The Ballot

In President Obama’s own and unambiguous words, he and
his administration are on the ballot on November 4.
Democratic Party strategists shuddered when he said it,
but this time there was “no walking the statement back,”
as they say in DC lingo. Mr. Obama and his wife on the
campaign trail have repeated it since again and again.

This is as it should be in the national mid-term of a
president’s second term. It gives the American electorate
an opportunity to pass a judgment on the accomplishments,
or lack of them, and a final chance to either encourage more
of the same or to put a brake on policies and a direction they
do not like.

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Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved

Saturday, October 18, 2014

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: 1918 Mid-Term Elections Deja Vu?

On November 5, 1918 American voters went to the polls for
the mid-term elections during President Woodrow Wilson’s
second term. Six days later, World War I would end. In that
month a worldwide pandemic of “Spanish” influenza was
raging.

In 1913, a constitutional amendment changed the election of
U.S. senators from election by state legislators to direct
election by all state voters. The first national direct election
of senators had occurred in 1914. The senate, because of its
constitutional powers of confirming presidential appointments
and its role in foreign policy was the key election that year. The
Democrats had 50 seats, the Republicans had 46. Control of
the senate was crucial to the direction of post-war foreign
policy, control of the U.S. supreme court, and the outcome of
the 1920 presidential election that would follow two years later.

When the votes were counted, the Republicans had picked up
a net of six seats, and had control of the senate 52-44. (There
were only forty-eight states in 1918, and thus only ninety-six
senators.)

A year later, President Wilson suffered a stroke in office, and
his wife became the de facto president. In 1920, Republicans
won the presidency, and held the White House for the next
twelve years. (Ironically, the defeated Democratic vice
presidential candidate in 1920, Franklin Roosevelt, would win
back the White House for the Democrats in 1932.)

The circumstances of 1918 are very different from those of 2014,
although there is the curious coincidence of an international
pandemic occurring during both years. For example, in 1918
the Democratic senators from the South were segregationists.
Most black voters voted for Republicans, as they had since the
Civil War. In 1918, women did not have the right to vote.
Democrats had blocked this for decades. Historically, the
Republicans were the champions of women's rights, and the
election of 1918 made possible the passing of a constitutional
amendment in 1920 giving U.S. women the right to vote.

What is similar, of course, is the vital question of who controls
the U.S. senate, and the implications for the next presidential
election.
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Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Fair Warning

In a race-by-race analysis of the national mid-term elections
sent to current subscribers to this website (directly to their
e-mail addresses) earlier today, I suggested that the past week
was generally good to the Republicans, but that a true picture
of the final outcomes is not yet in sight.

No political party easily gives up the powers that they have,
and the Democrats are particularly “ferocious” in this cycle
to keep control of the U.S. senate, and to make gains in their
number of governors of the states.

I have been stressing, despite the voter momentum to the
conservative party this cycle, that the liberal party has serious
cards to play, and that they are, and will continue, playing
them right up to election day. These include much more
campaign funds, reliable constituencies, and a proven and
effective ability to get out their vote. Republicans this cycle
have outfunded the Democrats only in the gubernatorial races
(thanks to having more incumbents and the efforts of
Republican Governors Association chairman Chris Christie).

The structure of the congressional map, as well as the GOP
trend this year, ensures mostly good outcomes for the
conservative party in U.S. house races, despite the Democrats’
financial advantage in these races. The Democrats have now
pulled their ads in many of the races where they hoped to defeat
incumbent Republicans, and reallocated those funds to saving
vulnerable Democrats.

It is in the U.S. senate races where Republicans must most be
wary, and not overconfident, with just under three weeks to go.
The Democrats know where they still have opportunities, both
to save their own vulnerable incumbents and to possibly pick
off an incumbent GOP senator or two. They have the money and
they have the technology to make a successful last stand.

As in some house races, Democrats have redirected their efforts.
They appear to be conceding Colorado and Kentucky, but there
are several senate races where heavy advertising and aggressive
get-out-the-vote efforts might yet save the political day for them.

Just as, following the 2004 election when Republicans had the
better ground game, the 2014 mid-term elections are a challenge
to the opposition party to adapt to a new election landscape
featuring early voting, looser voting rules, high-tech voter I.D
methods, and new political media/communication venues.

Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton for the Democratic party
nomination in 2008 in part by embracing the then new election
landscape, and he defeated Mitt Romney in 2012 in part because
the Republicans had not learned the lessons of 2006, 2008 and
2012.

The conservative party has had fair warning.

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Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Ground Game, Ground Game, Ground Game

There are now less than four weeks to go until election day,
Nominees have been chosen. Initial TV and other media
ads have been run. Campaign strategies are being carried out.
TV debates between the candidates have begun. What remains
to be done?

A very great deal, and it can be summed up in one short phrase:
ground game.”

The ground game is the unglamorous and most labor intensive
side of a political campaign. It consists of the time-consuming
work of identifying a candidate’s most likely voters, keeping in
touch with them by phone, with mailings and the internet, and
then creating an effective organization that makes sure they
get to the polls on election day.

It is not a casual effort. It requires large numbers of
carefully trained and prepared volunteers or paid staff, and in
2014, it also requires up-to-date technology and techniques.

Since 2006, the national Democratic Party, and most of the
state Democratic Parties, have clearly had the better ground
game. I think the liberal party’s ground game made the
difference in the 2012 presidential election on behalf of their
ticket. Even though the Democrats don’t have a presidential
candidate running in 2014, and despite the fact that their own
presidential incumbent has become quite unpopular, they will
conduct a massive and effective ground game in most areas of
the country this year.

Although it is undeniably a cycle favoring Republicans, the
conservative party would make an enormous mistake if it does
not achieve a very serious catch-up in its ground game in the
closing days of the 2014 national mid-term elections. So far,
all polling shows a higher intensity for Republican voters this
year, and some Democrats are demoralized by the performance
of President Obama, but that does not mean that most Democrats,
effectively identified and prodded by their party’s ground game,
won’t go to the polls and vote for Democratic candidates.

A so-called political “wave” could help Republicans, especially
Republican U.S. senate challengers, this cycle, but if there is not
a truly effective GOP ground game in the competitive senate,
house and gubernatorial races, the Republican Party, its
candidates, and its aspirations will fall short on election day.

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Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

Sunday, October 5, 2014

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Plan For Surprises

The recent turnabout in Kansas does not fully qualify as a
last-minute surprise, the kind of which almost always appear on
a national mid-term elections night. The collapse of the GOP in
that state is real enough, but it occurred enough in advance of
the actual election for the Republican incumbent to make a
serious effort to recover.

The real surprises percolate either on election night itself when
the results are being tabulated, or at most, a few days before in
the final polling when little or nothing can be done to affect the
outcome.

Somewhere in the list of “Safe” Democrats and/or “Safe”
Republicans is a candidate or two who is not so safe at all. Why
the dynamics of these campaigns are so sudden and late is
often unclear, but invariably they occur. And they can occur in
either party. The Kansas example demonstrates this. It is
shaping up to be a GOP year in the midwest, if not most of the
country, and Kansas is usually as red as red can be, but both
the conservative governor and the conservative U.S. senator are
in trouble.

Early possibilities for a last-minute surprise include U.S. senate
races in Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, Minnesota, and South
Dakota. The four former are “safe” Democratic seats, the latter
race is considered now “safe” Republican. But a “wave” could
defeat the Democrats, and a third party candidate could upset the
Republican. In fact, there are several third party candidates this
year who could alter the final results. Most of these races are now
considered likely Republican, but Democrats could pull out
surprise victories because some Republican voters might be
moved to vote for independent or libertarian third party candidates.

I have been covering national mid-term and presidential election
cycles for a very long time, and I cannot remember even one of
those many election years when there was not at least one or two
true surprises on election day.

I think this is one of the most wonderful and reassuring aspects
of U.S. representative democracy. As much as my fellow pundits,
myself included, labor to analyze and prognosticate the behavior
of the American voter, it is the single voter, counted in an
aggregate, who has the last, and often surprising, word.

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Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.



Wednesday, October 1, 2014

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Special Subscriber Advisory

Subscribers to The Prairie Editor website were 
just sent Mid-Term Countdown #2 directly to 
their e-mail addresses. This detailed race-by-race 
Countdown will be updated at least once a week 
from now until the election. These analyses will 
also be sent to current (paid-up) subscribers only. 

Special election night coverage, including
results and analysis will also be available for
"subscribers only" all evening of November 4.

Any reader who wishes to subscribe should 
scroll down on this page on the right side to
the "SUBSCRIBE" button, and click on it.
The annual fee is $45.00, and it can be paid'
there with a credit card.