With so much public attention on the political changes
taking place at the federal level under the new Trump
administration, the partisan orientation at the state
level is easily overlooked.
Two governor ships will be decided this November, and
thirty-six more will be on the ballot in next year’s
mid-term elections.
Currently, there are twenty-seven Republican governors
and twenty-three Democrats who hold their states’
highest executive office.
The two up for election in 2025 are Virginia (GOP
incumbent) and New Jersey (Democrat incumbent),
but both are open races since their current
governors are term-limited. Democrats are favored to
win both these races although they are likely to be
competitive. Virginia and New Jersey in recent years
have favored liberal statewide candidates, although
conservative Virginia Governor Glen Youngkin’s victory
was an upset.
In 2026, ten governorships held by Democrats, and
fifteen held by Republicans, are considered “safe”
races.
The competitive Democrat races include California
(open), Colorado (open), Wisconsin, Kansas,
Minnesota, Maine, Michigan and New Mexico —
incumbents are expected to run in the latter six states.
The battleground Republican races include Nevada,
Georgia and Iowa, the laltter two will be open contests.
Some pundits rate the Pennsylvania race as a toss-up,
but incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro is very popular
despite the Keystone State trending conservative, and
so far, the GOP has not come up with a strong candidate.
Many commentators rate the Minnesota race as “safe”
for the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL), but
a recent major poll show his re-election numbers in the
negative. If he is the DFL nominee in 2026, the race
will likely be competitive.
It is still quite early in the 2026 gubernatorial races.
Many of the nominees, Republican and Democrat, are
still unknown. Some of the races which are rated as
“safe” could become competitive.
As the first mid-term election of a new president, 2026
historically favors the Democrats, but that advantage
could be illusory since most of the battleground races
for governor are now held by Democrats.
Unlike the federal races in a mid-term election, contests
for governor and other statewide races usually depend
on local state issues. But in the era of the second
Trump administration, intensity of support or opposition
to the president and his policies could play a greater role
than usual in next year’s campaigns.
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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.
