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to the Prairie Editor family of readers

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Now What Happens Next?

The 2021 electorate has spoken, and it said rather clearly that

its majority is not happy. The Republican base turned out, and

with Donald Trump on no ballot, was fairly united. Democrats

were somewhat divided, not that happy with President Biden,

and did not turn out with their usual strong numbers. Centrist

independents, moving toward the Democrats in 2018 and 2020,

shifted back to the GOP, especially in many suburbs where

radical urban policy proposals nearby turned them off from

the progressive agenda.

Such measures as “defund the police” did not  go well with

otherwise very liberal black urban voters.

Democratic leaders such as President Biden, former President

Obama, and House Speaker Pelosi, belittling many voters’

concerns about education and immigration, did not appear to

help their candidates in the two key races.

With President Biden now routinely receiving favorability poll

numbers in the high 30s and low 40s, many Republicans and

centrist independents are giddy about their prospects in 

next year’s much more dispositive nationwide mid-term elections.  

But a word of caution. Many mainstream Democratic pollsters.

strategists, and campaigners have concluded that the left agenda

is not being embraced by most voters, and are unlikely to send

their candidates down to campaign a losing campaign path next

year.

Yes, initial reaction to the 2021 election results by many

Democratic leaders has been defensive, and appearing to

double-down on their mistakes, but as poll numbers continue

to implode, laws of political gravity will likely reassert themselves

as the campaign season reaches a decisive point.

Of course, first mid-term elections historically do not go well for

new administrations, and loss of control of the U.S. house might 

not be avoided in 2022, but a more popular Democratic agenda      

might rescue or even expand the very narrow control of the U.S.

senate.

In fact, Democrats just got the news that highly popular New

Hampshire Republican Governor Chris Sununu will not run

against very vulnerable  Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan in

2022. This likely turnover might now be avoided —- the GOP

so far lacks a strong replacement for Sununu — but if  there is

a red wave 2022 election because Democrats continue not to 

pay attention to voters’ concerns, Senator Hassan and several

other of her colleagues will lose..

In 1993 and 2009. upsets in the off-year elections, although few

in number, signaled possible landslides in the following years’

mid-terms. Democrats ignored those signals and paid a heavy

political price for doing so. On other occasions, Republicans

made the same mistake, and lost their majorities.

Republicans are fired up now, but the full outcome in 2022 is

mainly in the  Democrats’ own hands.

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Copyright (c) 2021 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

 

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Biden Pulling Back?

 

After months of executive orders. legislative proposals, policy

announcements — most of which were designed to reverse

his predecessor’s actions or to introduce new programs,

President Joe Biden, facing significantly negative polls and

rapidly sinking popularity, has begun to pull back.

The Biden administration has reversed itself in two key areas

in recent days, including the Remain In Mexico program of the 

Trump administration, and seeking the help of the oil and gas

industry in keeping recently rising energy prices down.

The successful Remain in Mexico agreement called for returning

apprehended undocumented immigrants to Mexico until they

either decided to return to their home country or could be

properly processed for legal immigration to the U.S, By the end 

of 2020, it had noticeably reduced illegal Mexican border crossings.

President Biden, who as a candidate had advocated “open 

borders,” ended the program after taking  office, replacing it with  

a “catch and release” policy which brought larger numbers of 

undocumented and unvaccinated immigrants to the U.S., chaotic

conditions at the border, and widespread protests  throughout

the southeastern states..

A federal court ruled that the Biden action was illegal, and

restored the Trump program, and the Biden administration has

said it will comply with the court order next month. (Mexico,

however, concerned by the sudden surge has indicated it might

want to renegotiate the agreement.)

President Biden, also as a candidate, said he opposed fracking

and for less usage of fossil fuels. On taking office, he took actions

to advance these views, but  the result has been a large increase

in the price of gasoline and the prospect of oil and gas shortages

in the coming winter months. President Trump had promoted

policies supporting fracking, new pipelines and increased drilling

that made the U.S. energy independent.

Facing a consumer and voter revolt over sharply higher prices and

shortages, President Biden has now reached out  to oil and gas

industry leaders to help with this energy crisis. His and fellow

Democrats harshly anti-coal views have also turned away union

and working class voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia 

and neighboring states — and polls now show  clear majorities

of Hispanics, independents and suburban voters now oppose his

policies.

It is unclear what concessions Biden might make to induce the

oil, gas and coal industries to cooperate.

Whether by court order or political necessity, more Biden

administration reversals could occur  in coming months as winter

and the 2022 national  midterm elections approach — and the loss

of control  of one or both houses of Congress becomes likely

and imminent.

If not, the red wave in 2022 could be a very large one.

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Copyright (c) 2021 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.            

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: "Pandemigration" And Other Issues In 2022

Democratic political demoralization in advance of the 2022

national midterm elections continues with the retirement

announcement of U.S. House Budget Chairman John Yarmuth

of Kentucky, This follows retirements of other senior U.S.

house Democrats in Texas, Wisconsin, Illinois and Arizona 

who might have been defeated in a potential “red wave” 

election next year.

Three senior Republicans have also announced their 

retirements, but they represent safe GOP districts.

In 2017-18, this phenomenon was reversed as many 

endangered senior Republicans retired in advance of the

“blue wave” 2018 national mid-term elections which gave

Democrats control of the U.S. house.

The political pessimism of the Democrats is apparently

being fueled by voter response to President Joe Biden and

many of the unpopular policies and proposals of his

administration. The disastrous way the U.S. withdrew from

Afghanistan and the ongoing Mexican border crisis have

evidently fueled the president’s precipitous personal drop

in the polls, but inflation worries and (according to polls)

unpopular proposals (such as defunding the police and

packing the U.S. supreme court) are reinforcing a mood of

vulnerability among many incumbent Democrats.

The border crisis, particularly, is creating prospects of

increasing negative reactions from voters in coming 

months as tens of thousands of would-be undocumented

immigrants are reportedly making their way in caravans

to the Mexican-U.S. border where already record numbers

of emigrants have massed in trying to enter the U.S. This

“pandemigration” has been encouraged by some voices

on the U.S. political left, following a controversial 

pandemigration in western Europe, (and its rejection in

parts of eastern Europe).

Less immediate,, but looming in coming months, is a 

serious supply chain crisis — brought on, critics say, by

Biden administration economic policies.

The Democratic political demoralization is beginning to

spill over into the key battle for control of the U.S. senate

in 2022 —- where Democrats are seeing their initial

advantage to attain a majority fade as independent and

suburban voters, according to recent polls, increasingly

are seemingly turning to GOP candidates.

Not all the news is bad for the Democrats. The post-

pandemic economy is slowly recovering, the stock market

remains high, interest rates remain low, and the natural

optimism of most Americans still prevails. The election is

still slightly more than a year away. The  Afghan debacle

will fade in voter memory.

But new and ongoing crises, especially economic ones,

are provoking veteran elected officials now to evaluate

their re-election prospects — and so far, the decisions 

have been ominous, particularly in U.S. house races, for

the  Democrats.

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Copyright (c) 2021 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Headlines In September

 CANADIAN ELECTIONS

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called as early

election hoping to win a majority of seats in his nation’s

parliament, but the strategy has failed as his Liberal Party

won almost the same number of seats they held in their

minority government. The main opposition Conservative 

Party gained only 3 seats, while the leftist New Democratic

Party won enough seats again to provide Trudeau with the

necessary majority to lead the country he has led since

2015. A sizable bloc of seats was also won by the Quebec

nationalist party in Canada’s second largest province.

Half of Trudeau’s party’s seats came from Ontario, the

largest province. Conservative Party strength was in

western Canada. Although the Trudeau’s Liberals won the

most seats, they were virtually tied with the Conservatives

in the national popular vote. Trudeau’s gamble clouds his 

political future, and he will once again have to satisfy his 

parliamentary partners, the New Democrats.

OVERRULING “THE SQUAD”

In a last-minute gambit, nine anti-Israel Democrats in the

U.S. House had $1 billion in aid to Israel’s vital “Iron  Dome”

system deleted from the infrastructure bill before Congress,

threatening not to vote for the bill if the aid were not removed.

Led by the radical “Squad” that includes Minnesota 5th

District Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, their victory was brief

as the U.S. House then immediately passed the aid in  a

separate bill with a bipartisan vote of 420 to 9 with 2 voting 

“present,” and one Republican joining the negatives.

NEW U.S./U.K./AUSTRALIA PACT

In a week of foreign policy debacles and other bad news,

President Biden joined traditional allies Australia and the

United Kingdom in  a domestically popular new defense

pact known as “AUKUS.” The agreement calls for mutual

defense cooperation to meet the new aggressive challenge

from China, and includes the sale of U.S. nuclear submarines

to Australia. The latter led Australia to cancel an earlier

order for French nuclear subs, and  deeply upset French

President Macron, who recalled his ambassador to the

U.S., and other European allies (who were not consulted on

the move). The pact was initiated by British Prime Minister

Boris Johnson who, like Mr. Biden, had not received much

good foreign policy news recently.

BORDER CRISIS WORSENS

With a Mexican border crisis clearly worsening despite

denials by the Biden administration and many privately

embarrassed Democratic leaders, record numbers of 

undocumented would-be immigrants from South and

Central  America and the Caribbean are at or crossing the

Mexican border. Some are unaccompanied children, and

none are required to be vaccinated to enter the U.S. The

images of crowded refugees at border points and bridges,

previously downplayed by many in the establishment 

media, is now a major story beyond the directly-affected

border states. Vice President Kamala Harris, charged by

President Biden to manage the crisis, is virtually invisible.

Local Democrats seeking re-election in 2022 are increasingly

worried by political fallout from the crisis.

VIRGINIA IN PLAY?

Most recent polls show the Virginia race for governor,

scheduled to take place in five weeks, to be too close to call.

Pitting former Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe

against Republican busInessman Glenn Youngkin, the

race had not been expected to be close in a state which has

voted consistently Democratic in  recent years. The current

Democratic incumbent is term-limited. Virginia was carried

by Joe Biden by 10 points in 2020. Although rural Virginia

remains heavily Republican, the Washington, DC suburbs

in the state have been increasingly Democratic because so

many work for the federal government, and commute.

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Copyright (c) 2021 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved. 

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Early Critical Mass

The political cliches about commenting on and predicting

future elections which are many months away don’t always

hold up in all circumstances — and this might be the case 

in the current national mid-term cycle. 

The reason for this is the fact that major races for

governor, senator and congressperson now require so

much money that individuals must make their decisions

to run and begin fundraising earlier than in the past. This

is true for incumbents as well as challengers, although

incumbents are perhaps more concerned about likely

defeat if their districts are likely to be unfavorably

redrawn or specific issues  endanger their re-election.

Both parties now face such an unconventional cycle more

than a year before election day. 

For Democrats, foreign and domestic crises have seen a

sudden and precipitous drop in President Joe Biden’s

popularity because of his mishandling the U.S. military

withdrawal from Afghanistan. Even before Afghanistan,

the Mexican border crisis was causing serious problems

for Democratic incumbents in southeastern states (Texas,

Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada) with some

already announcing their retirements. Perhaps most

significantly, potentially strong challengers to vulnerable

Republican incumbents are feeling the current negative

environment — and with the resulting uncertainty about

next year, possibly deciding not to run. The retirement of

a 13-term Democratic congressman in Wisconsin indicates

the negatives are occurring nationally, especially in

suburban districts and battleground northern states

where progressive policies of defunding the police,

politicizing the schools, packing the U.S. supreme court,

etc., are very unpopular outside inner cities.

The political environment might improve for the

Democrats next year, but candidates must, in most

cases. make up their minds now when their prospects

appear low.

For different reasons, Republican incumbents and

challengers might face negative circumstances, and

might decide not to run in 2022. In fact, four sitting

U.S. GOP senators have already  announced their

retirement. The dilemma for Republicans next year is

the activity of former President Donald Trump in

some gubernatorial, senate and house races —  some

involving GOP incumbents — where his preferred

and endorsed candidate might not be the strongest

candidate for the office. This might be the case in

Arizona, for example. In a competitive 2022 race,

a Republican nominee without Mr. Trumps’s

support  would be at a distinct disadvantage. All

polls show that Trump supporters still dominate 

the GOP voter base.

The two leaders of their parties are thus key to the

eventual outcome of the 2022 elections, and as well

are key in many cases to the critical period  now

taking place when candidates are making their

decisions about next year.

One political commonplace is axiomatic, i.e., that

candidates matter. Wave elections and local

circumstances might allow weaker nominees

occasionally to win, but generally only quality

candidates, especially challengers to incumbents,

prevail with voters.

When the strongest candidates decide not to run

because of gloomy prospects well before election

day, opportunities are sometimes lost. A case in

point, was the contest for the 1992 Democratic

presidential nomination. President George H.W.

Bush was so popular following the 1991 Gulf War

victory that many strong Democratic candidates

decided not to run, and allowed an unknown and

controversial Bill Clinton to win the nomination.

By mid-1992, the economy had tanked, Ross

Perot was running as a third party candidate,

and in November, Clinton won.

It is true that a political environment can change

dramatically in a matter of months, but it is also

true that the critical period when candidates

decide whether to run or not has irreversible

consequences long before election day.

We are in such a period now — a year before

voters go to the polls.

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Copyright (c) 2021 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.