Wednesday, April 30, 2025

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: The Elections In Canada

 

Overoming a twenty-point deficit in public opinion polls,

Canada’s Liberal Party, led by  banker Mark Carney,

won a plurality of seats to the Canadian parliament, as

well as a plurality of the popular vote across Canada,

and will form the nation’s next government.


Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau had been prime

minister for more than a decade, but his administration

had become quite unpopular, and after he called a snap

election, he was ousted as party leader and premier by

his own party, and replaced by Carney.


President Donald Trump used the U.S. trade deficit

with Canada to confront Trudeau earlier, and to assert

that Canada should become “the 51st U.S.state.

Although this aroused a new Canadian nationalism felt

by voters of all parties, it did not rescue Trudeau from

defeat, and the more moderate Carney took his place

before the election.


Meanwhile, Conservative Party leader Pierra Poilievre,

a heavy favorite to win the snap election, mishandled the

tariff issue raised by President Trump, and his big lead in

the polls disappeared.


Although Poilievre shared many ideological views with

Trump, he tried to keep his distance from the American

president, even publicly telling Trump to stay out of

Canadian politics. But it was Carney who most

successfully seized the Trump tariff issue, and he quickly

gained in the polls.


In the Canadian parliamentary system there are 343 seat

in the federal legislative body. The candidate with the

most votes, even if not a majority, wins the seat, In order

to form a government, a party or coalition of parties must

have a majority, or 172 seats.


There are two major parties in Canada, the Liberal Party

and the Conservative Party. Three minor parties usually

win seats, including the Party Quebecois, the New 

Democratic Party (NDP)and the Green Party —- each of 

which usually wins a small number of seats. In the previous

election in 2021, Trudeau’s Liberal  Party lost their

previous majority in parliament, but formed the 

government with votes from the three minor parties,

each of which were also on the political left.


This time, the Liberal Party again fell short, but did

win the most seats, 169, and will again form the

government with votes from the minor parties. In 2021,

the Conservative won the national popular vote, but

did not win the most seats, This time, many NDP,

Quebecois and Green Party voters broke ranks to vote

for the  Liberals—- to prevent the Conservatives from

winning —- and Carney’s Party also won the popular

vote.


The premier, however still faces serious issues, including

secession movements in Quebec and Alberta, and 

lingering resentment from conservative western provinces.

The tariff issue with the U.S. and President Trump also

remains unresolved. The huge international trade between

the U.S. and Canada is in limbo, and the long friendship

between the two neighbors is being tested anew.


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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselamn. All rights reserved.

Sunday, March 30, 2025

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Special Upcoming Special Elections

 

On April 2, there will be three elections, one for a

justice of the Wisconsin state supreme court, and

two special congressional elections in Florida to

fill vacancies that resulted when Republican 

incumbents were offered positions in the second 

Trump administration which began on January 20.


Normally, such elections have only significant impact

locally, but this year the impact could be much greater.


On paper, Republicans would be favored to win all

three, but polls and other signs indicate that 

Democrats might win upsets in one, tow or all three

races.


The Wisconsin supreme court race is important

because the party of the winner will give that party

a majority on the state court. On political questions,

this court almost always divides along party lines.


Upcoming is a determination of new congressional

boundaries, and other election issues about which

there is sharp partisan disagreement.


Wisconsin has been a truly purple state in the

recent past with a Democrat as governor, one GOP

and one Democrat representing the state in the U.S.

Senate, five Republicans and three Democrats in the

U.S. House. Democrats hold lt. governor, attorney

general and secretary of state; a Republican is state

treasurer, and the GOP controls both hoses of the

state legislature.


Congressman-elect Matt Goetz, a Florida Republican,

was nominated to be attorney general by President-

elect Donald Trump, and he resigned from Congress

before taking the oath in January. (He later also

withdrew from consideration for the cabinet post.)

Florida Congressman Mike Waltz resigned to join the

Trump cabinet.


Both of these vacancies are holding special elections

on Tuesday, April 2. Although both districts are usually

reliably conservative, GOP party officials have been

expressing concern that Democrats might win one or

both of them.


Should any of these races provide upsets, the question

will be is there a sudden surge of Democrats voting in

protest to President Trump, or having won the 2024

election, are GOP voters no longer motivated to vote

as they were last year.


The actual vote totals will likely answer that question,

but in spite of the anger and disappointment of liberal

and progressive voters, it is more likely that 

conservative voters could fail to turn out in elections

which do not have Donald Trump on the ballot.


Since Republicans currently hold 218 U.S. House seats,

the election of Democrats to the Florida vacancies, and

later to the other two vacancies, would not change

political control of the U.S. House —- although the GOP

margin would only be one seat.


President Trump’s recent withdrawal of New York

Congresswoman Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be U.N.

ambassador thus avoided a worse-case outcome in which

a special election of her seat plus the loss of the four

current vacancies could give the Democrats a one-seat

majority and the House speakership.


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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.


UPDATE ON APRIL  2:

The Democratic candidate for Wisconsin supreme court justice

won this race by about 10 points. She had led in pre-election

polling by 2-7 points, Turnout was historically heavy.


Both Republican congressional candidates won their special

elections to fill recent vacancies. Although each of them won

by double digits, their margins were less than half of what

they were for these seats in 2024.