barrycasselman

Saturday, November 25, 2023

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: New Scenarios For U.S. House Races In Minnesota

At the outset of the 2024 national election cycle, it

appeared that there would be no serious races likely

for the eight-seat Minnesota delegation to the U.S.

House of Representatives.

In the past few days, that scenario has dramatically

changed in at least two races.

Incumbent 5th District DFL Congresswoman Ilhan

Omar, one of the radical progressive members of

the “Squad” group in Congress, made statements

seen by many as anti-Israel in the current flare-up

of hostilities following an October 7 surprise attack

on Israel by Hamas terrorists that killed 1200 Israelis,

wounding thousands more, and 240 being taken as

hostages back to the territory of Gaza. Her statements

seemed in sharp contrast to the overwhelming bipartisan

support for Israel by her congressional colleagues.

Although she narrowly won DFL renomination two

years before when challenged by former DFL city

council member Don Samuels, it was generally

believed she would not face such a serious opponent

in 2024, but her controversial comments apparently

have caused Mr. Samuels to announce his candidacy

again.

The 5th District is a very safe DFL district. Republicans

make up only about 25-30% of its electorate. In 2022,

most observers did not think Samuels could defeat the

congresswoman in the primary, and the close final

result was a surprise. In 2024, his candidacy will be

taken very seriously. The 5th District has the largest

number of Jewish voters in the state, most of whom

are DFLers who supported Ilhan Omar in the past. In

the wake of her recent statements, she is likely to lose

much of that support, and if a sizable number of

Republicans cross over to vote for Samuels in the

primary, her renomination could be in trouble next year.

In the neighboring 3rd Congressional District, incumbent

DFL Congressman Dean Phillips had won his third term

handily in 2022, and his re-election seemed secure. But

Democratic President Joe Biden, now 81 and appearing

frail, has been sinking in public opinion polls, and has

been trailing Republican opponents, In spite of this, no

truly serious Democrat has challenged him for

renomination. Phillips, who had supported Biden in 2020,

initially urged the president to retire. When he did not,

the congressman announced his candidacy for president,

and launched a full-scale campaign in New Hampshire.

Phillips was criticized by many Democrats, and one DFL

legislator announced she would run against him in the

primary in 2024 (assuming he would run for re-election

after a presumed failure to defeat Biden).

But Congressman Phillips has now announced he will

not run for re-election in 2024 no matter what the

outcome of his presidential bid.

Although this relatively purple district was a safe DFL

seat with incumbent Phillips running for re-election, it is

potentially competitive as an open seat. A number of

DFLers will now get into this race. A strong GOP nominee

could win in 2024. That candidate might be Kendall

Qualls, a businessman and Army veteran who was the

Republican nominee for this seat in 2020, and in 2022

ran for governor. He lost both times, but made a good

impression as an articulate candidate. Other 3rd District

Republicans might also announce.

The Minnesota congressional race that has been the most

competitive in recent years is the 2nd District, also now

a relatively purple area — although increasingly DFL with

new residents moving in the area from nearby Minneapolis.

Incumbent DFL Congresswoman Angie Craig has had

close races in the past, but might have an easier time in 2024.

No Republican challenger has yet emerged as her likely

opponent next year.

The 5th District is not a GOP pick-up opportunity, but most

Republicans and many DFLers would prefer Omar be replaced

with the more moderate Samuels. The 3rd District, following

Phillips’ retirement announcement, favors the DFL candidate

as an open seat, but 2024 looks like an extraordinary and

unpredictable campaign cycle, and anything might happen.

_________________________________________________

Sunday, November 19, 2023

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: A Surprise In Argentina

Beginning with movie/TV star Ronald Reagan 52 years ago,

the world of politics has seen the electoral success of many

recent show business/celebrity personalities — figures who have

become notable presidents, prime ministers and major officials,

and who have transformed their entertainment skills into

victories at the ballot box.

Actors, comedians and other entertainment personalities have

frequently held political office in Brazil, Mexico, India, Thailand,

Phillipines, Japan, Sri Lanka, Italy, United Kingdom, Russia and

other nations all over the world.

Earlier, in Argentina, actress and singer Eva (“Evita”) Peron

became a powerful political figure.

In the U.S., actors Arnold Schwartzenegger and Fred Thompson,

and actor/wrestler Jesse Ventura attained political prominence

Two vey recent examples. of course, are Ukraine’s President

Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. former President Donald Trump.

Now a new figure, Argentine TV personality Javier Milei joins

this group, having just won a landslide victory in that nation’s

presidential election.

Although a member of the country’s parliament, Milei emerged

suddenly, as did Zelensky and Trump, on to their national

political stage.

Milei is difficult to categorize. He is a social conservative, an

economic libertarian, and has been called an “anarcho-capitalist.”

He admires Donald Trump, the late Hasidic leader Rebbe

Menachem Schneerson, the U.S.A., Israel, and free markets.

He is pro-life and anti-climate extremism. He opposes current

Argentine government regulations, and wants to replace the

nearly bankrupt Argentine peso with the U.S. dollar.

He dislikes socialism, jihadism, and Peronism.

With his trademark uncombed hair and leather jacket, he is a

charismatic speaker who has a huge following among working

class Argentinians.

Entertainment personalities in politics have ranged from liberal

and progressive to liberal and libertarian. Some have had more

success than others.

With many South American nations, including Brazil, veering

leftward, and others like Ecuador and now Argentina moving to

the right, the election of Javier Milei might not represent a clear

political trend in the continent, but with its free election and

peaceful transfer of power, Argentina has taken a hopeful step

out from its tumultuous and problematic past.

_________________________________________________

Wednesday, October 25, 2023

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Curtain Down! Curtain Up!

The Republican House of Representatives majority, after

three tries, finally settled on a new speaker, following a

long-brewing revolt that led to the end of Speaker

Kevin McCarthy’s tenure three weeks before.

Louisiana Congressman Mike Johnson won a unanimous

GOP vote to win the speakership 220-209 over Democrat

Hakeem Jeffers. This party unity was in stark contrast to

the party divisions which marked earlier voting that saw

three GOP speaker nominees fail to even come close to

the 217 votes necessary to win the post.

For three weeks, the House majority performed a comic

opera that wasn’t at all funny. When the curtain came

down, there was relief instead of applause.

Speaker Johnson says the next show will be serious

drama. There is plenty to be serious about in both

domestic and in international affairs.

The first action of the House under Speaker Johnson was

a bipartisan resolution condemning the barbarity of

Hamas in its attack of Israel. It passed overwhelmingly.

Coming up, the House must take action on the national

debt limit, an issue which provoked GOP dissension

before. It will test Speaker Johnson’s ability to serve as

leader of the House as perhaps no other immediate

issue. If he and his caucus are successful, they will then

face many more serious decisions in the term leading

to the November, 2024 national elections.

The work of the legislative branches of the government

goes on. The curtain will now rise on the next show in

D.C. The business of nominating candidates for

president will likely attract the most attention. There is

considerable dissension in both major parties on which

person that will be, and there is an unusual interest in

this cycle for third party and independent candidates.

Democrats might have enjoyed the spectacle of the

Republicans’ House leadership battle just concluded,

but now they face a decision of what to do with their

own incumbent president and vice president whose

support is plummeting ominously in virtually all

battleground states.

The curtain is now going up on that show, and no one

knows now who will be in its cast, or whether it will be

a comedy or a tragedy or something else.

_______________________________________________

About Barry Casselman

BARRY CASSELMAN is an author, journalist and lecturer who has reported and analyzed American presidential and national politics since 1972.

He founded, edited and published his first newspaper when he was 29. He has been a contributor to many national publications, including The Weekly Standard, realclearpolitics.com, Politico, Roll Call, Washington Examiner, The American Interest, Utne Reader, Campaigns and Elections Magazine, American Experiment Quarterly, Washington Times, The Rothenberg Political Report, Business Today, Election Politics, Business Ethics Magazine, San Francisco Examiner, Washington Insider, and American Commonwealth.

His regular op ed columns and other commentary in print, and on the internet, are distributed through the Preludium News Service. His blog ‘The Prairie Editor” has an international readership and appears on his website at www.barrycasselman.com .

He was a political analyst for WCCO-AM (CBS) for several years, for KSJN-AM (Public Radio International), and for KUOM-AM (National Public Radio). He has also broadcast on RAE in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and beginning in 2000, he produced and broadcast for Voice of America. In 2006, he presented news commentary on LBC, the independent 24-hour news radio network in London, England. He also provided election night analysis in 2006 for Minnesota Public Radio. In 2008, he returned to WCCO-AM for periodic national election commentary. Beginning in 2011, he began weekly commentary on the 2012 presidential campaign on a national radio podcast program originating in Dallas, TX.

Casselman was the original host of “Talk To Your City” on the Minneapolis Television Network, and was a frequent political commentator for KTCA-TV (PBS). In 1992 and 1994, he presented election night analysis for the Conus coast-to-coast All News Channel. In 1996, he provided live coverage from the presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire for All News Channel nationwide. He has also appeared on C-SPAN. In 2008, he was interviewed by ABC-TV Evening News with Charles Gibson.

He has covered national presidential primaries, caucuses and straw polls since 1976, and attended Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1988. He has traveled throughout the United States to report on significant political events, including the national congressional debate in Williamsburg in 1996, the presidential debates, national conventions and events of the Democratic Leadership Council, Democratic National Committee, Republican National Committee, United We Stand America, Reform Party, National Governors Association, NAACP, AFL-CIO, Christian Coalition, CPAC, Green Party and the Independence Party.

In 2012, he was invited to be a civilian participant in the 58th annual seminar on national security at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, PA. Also in 2012, he was a speaker at the Jefferson Educational Society's Global Summit IV. At that event, he received the Thomas Hagen "Dignitas" Award for lifetime achievement.

From 1990-2011, he was the executive director of the non-profit International Conference Foundation, and hosted more than 500 world leaders, foreign journalists and other international visitors. At the non-partisan Foundation, he also organized four national symposia: the first on low-income housing with then-HUD Secretary Jack Kemp; the second, a highly-acclaimed conference on “Locating the New Political Center in America” with Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and leading spokespersons of the Clinton administration as well as newly-emerged independent groups; the third, a symposium on public communications with then-Governor Tom Ridge, former White House press secretary Mike McCurry, Tony Blankley and other national figures; and in 2003, a symposium on homeland security with Secretary Ridge and leading local and national experts. During this time, he also organized numerous smaller conferences, tours and events for the U.S. Information Agency and the U.S. Department of State for its International Visitor Program and its Foreign Press Center programs. In 2008, he organized a special program for international media and visitors attending the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. The Foundation also sponsored programs presenting domestic and international authors and their books.

In 2007, Mr. Casselman helped create and plan the nationally-broadcast and podcast dialogue between former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at the Cooper Union in New York City, and he continued to work on related debate and public policy discussion projects in the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Mr. Casselman has been a lecturer on public policy at Princeton University’s annual international business conferences in New York, and its regional conferences in Chicago since 2005; He also has been a guest lecturer at George Washington University, Carleton College, The Chautauqua (NY) Institution, Gannon University, Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Santa Barbara City College, University of St. Thomas, Metropolitan State University, Augsburg College, University of Minnesota, Jefferson Educational Society, and on the international voyages of the Queen Elizabeth 2, Sagafjord, Vistafjord and Royal Viking Sun. He has made presentations on journalism and the arts at Carleton College, University of Minnesota, College of St. Catherine, Minneapolis College of Art and Design, Walker Art Center, Metropolitan State University, Mercyhurst College and the Brazilian Writers Union in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

His non-fiction book North Star Rising was published in 2007 by Pogo Press, an imprint of Finney Company. In 2008, Pogo Press published Minnesota Souvenir, Casselman’s history and visitor guide for the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul. He was editor and co-author of the book Taking Turns: Political Stalemate or a New Direction in the Race for 2012, a preview of that year's national election.

He has been cited in Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics and in William Safire’s Political Dictionary. Casselman has invented a number of political words and phrases which are now in frequent usage, and listed in various online dictionaries.

He is also a widely-published American poet, short story writer and playwright whose work has been translated and published in Europe, South America and Asia. He is the author of four published books of literary prose and poetry. His work has been frequently anthologized. Two of his plays, in collaboration with composer Randall Davidson, have been performed by the Actors Theater of St. Paul, Minnesota Orchestra, St. Donat’s Ensemble of Wales, and by independent productions at the Union Depot in St. Paul and the Foss Theater at Augsburg College in Minneapolis. He has provided original texts for two award-winning experimental films, as well as texts for other independent short films and videos.

Barry Casselman was born in Erie, Pennsylvania. He received his B.A. with major honors from the University of Pennsylvania and his M.F.A. at the Writers Workshop at the University of Iowa. He has also studied in Paris, and attended the University of Madrid. He now lives in Minneapolis.