THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: The 2025 Twin City Elections

 

The Democratic socialist running for mayor of Minneapolis

against incumbent Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party

Mayor Jacob Frey this year failed to unseat Frey who won

a third term in office.

There were fifteen candidates on the non-partisan ballot.

At least three identified with the Democratic Socialists of

America (DSA). No significant Republican ran for mayor.

The controversial ranked-choice voting system is used in

Minneapolis city elections. Frey did not have at least 50

percent plus one in the actual vote counting, but voters

can also make second and third choices on their ballots

so that if no candidate has a majority, second and third

choices are allocated into subsequent calculations until

there are only two candidates left.

Frey reached just over 50% in the second round, and his

major opponent, Omar Fatah was about 6000 votes 

behind.

The mayor had led by about 15,000 votes (42%)in the 

actual counting of the votes, but his three main DSA

opponents had a combined total of 56%. They had

asked their voters to choose only  DSA candidates for

their second and third choices, thus enabling one of them

(most likely Fatah) to overcome Frey’s first ballot lead

and win the election.

With a list of fifteen candidates for mayor, this was an

almost impossible quest because the ballot was so

complicated. In fact, the two trailing DSA candidates’

second and third choices were divided, and Frey received

a substantial enough number of them to win the election.

The Republican Party in the Twin Cities can only muster

about 20-25% of the vote, and thus has little presence

in Minneapolis and St. Paul. They hold few, if any, elected

offices.

Mayor Frey also had good news that regular DFLers

had gained seats on the City Council. DSA and other

radical council members still had a 7-6 majority, but

they no longer had the votes to override a mayoral

vetp. This outcome signals that there will be

stalemate ahead on controversial proposals and

projects — although Frey and his supporting council

members are quite liberal DFLers, and conservative

policies will not be enacted.

In St. Paul, incumbent Mayor Melvin Carter was

defeated for re-election in a stunning upset by

Laotian-born state legislator Kaohly Her who had

entered the race at the last minute, but she had

campaigned tirelessly. As in Minneapolis, St. Paul

city candidates are liberal DFLers, but Mayor-elect

Her is considered to be more moderate than Carter

who had seemed by many observers not to be a

hands-on mayor. Nevertheless, his defeat was a

surprise to most political observers.

All the members of the St. Pau; City Council are

women.

With statewide elections taking place next year,

and key gubernatorial, congressional and legislative

offices at stake, the 2025 urban elections suggest

that the DFL control of statewide offices might face

serious challenge. Republicans have a majority in

outstate Minnesota, including rural areas and most

small towns. The main voter battlefield will in the

suburbs which are more evenly split between the

two parties.

The divide between the regular DFL Party and its

more leftist DSA voters could affect the outcome

of the elections for governor, U.S. senator and other

offices in that the formidable DFL get-out-the-vote

operation could weaken as party leaders continue to 

openly feud and criticize each other in the aftermath 

of the bitter city elections just held.

________________________________________________

Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved. 

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Is The 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate Race Now Suddenly In Doubt?

A private poll commissioned by a major DFL candidate

for next year’s open U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota

revealed that the contest, previously thought to be safe

for the liberal party is likely to be very competitive if the

Republican Party runs a strong candidate for the post.

Incumbent DFL Senator Tina Smith earlier announced

she would not be running for re-election. The DFL has

controlled both U.S. Senate seats in Minnesota, as well

as the other statewide elected offices for more than a

decade, The Gopher State has been throughout this

period been considered a solid blue state.

Recently, however, GOP candidates have been winning

more and more state legislative seats, and the

conservative party holds four of the state’s congressional

seats. Recent polls also indicate that incumbent governor

Tim Walz faces a serious challenge for re-election from 

his Republican opponent in 2025.

As is the case in many midwestern states, Republicans 

are strong in rural areas and small towns, and Democrats

(DFLers) win big in large urban areas. The large DFL

majorities in Minneapolis and St. Paul have in recent 

years exceeded the outstate GOP majorities.

U.S. Senate elections, especially competitive ones.

require raising large amounts of money, and previous to

the news of the leaked private poll, no serious Republican

candidate had formally entered the race.    

But two potentially serious candidates have been

discussed. Nationally known local sports broadcaster

Michele Tafoya and St. Paul business figure John Taft

have been urged to run by some GOP party aciivists. 

Each of them could raise substantial campaign funds.

Taft is the great-grandson of President William Howard

Taft and the grandson of the legendary Senator Robert

Taft.  A successful businessman, he could self-fund

his campaign . Tafoya is a well-known personality.

DFLers already have two major candidates vying for 

their party’s nomination. Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan 

was the first to announce. Second District 

Congresswoman Angie Craig is also in the race.

Rep. Craig has been called the favorite by many

political observers to win the DFL nomination 

and election in November, 2026.

If the private poll numbers published in the Alpha News 

blog are accurate, however, the Minnesota U.S. Senate  

race could be too close to call at this time.

A factor which might also impact next year’s races in

Minnesota could be the outcome of this year’s

mayoral race in Minneapolis, the site of the largest

part of the DFL voter base. In this, the state’s

most populous city, the DFL is deeply divided between

the liberal incumbent mayor and his radical neo-socialist

challengers.  

Depending on the outcome of this race, less than four 

weeks from now, the DFL’s recent history of the much

superior voter ID and get-out-the-vote operations

might be at risk.

________________________________________________

Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved. 

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: A Potentially Close Race For Governor of Minnesota Now Likely

DFL Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota has announced he

will run for a third term in office next year. No Minnesota 

governor of either party has won three full terms, although

DFL Governor Rudy Perpich won two full terms after

serving out a partial term of his predecessor who resigned

to serve as a U,S, senator.

Walz and the DFL Party have controlled state politics for

two decades, although their popularity with state voters

has declined in recent years. In a new major poll, in

fact, the governor’s favorability has sunk sharply, with

less than half of voters favoring him for re-election in 2026.

As is true for many midwestern states, the liberal party

leads by a wide margin in big cities and  other urban areas,

the conservative party is strong in rural and small town

areas  Suburban areas are usually more evenly divided.

The DFL also has the advantage of having in recent years

a much more effective  get-out-the-vote operation in the

state.

In 2024, Walz was unexpectedly selected  to run for

vice president on the Democratic presidential ticket

when President Joe Biden withdrew from his re-election

at virtually the last minute, and party leaders decided

to replace him with then-Vice President Kamal Harris.

Harris recently said her first choice for a running mate

had been Secretary of Transportation Peter Buttigieg,

but thinking he might be too controversial, she chose 

Walz instead.

Walz’s subsequent vice presidential campaign was 

marred, however, by a series if mis-statements and

blunders, and his presence on the ticket did nothing

to alleviate the decisive loss in November to the GOP

ticket of Donald Trump and J.D. Vance.

Walz’s national performance apparently also further 

eroded his support in Minnesota, as evidenced by 

recent polls, but that has not deterred him for one more

statewide campaign.

The obvious question then is can the Republicans defeat

him next year,

There are three principal GOP candidates already in the

race. One is Dr. Scott Jensen who was the Republican

nominee in 2022, but fell short after some initial campaign 

blunders and lost to Walz. In his one-on-one meetings with 

voters, however, the medical physician gained a base

of support, primarily among out-state voters. His challenge

in 2026 is to demonstrate he learned from 2022, and to

show he can successfully confront Walz and the DFL

urban political GOTV machine.

A first-time statewide candidate next year is State

Representative Kristin Robbins who has made a name

for herself with her legislative investigations into state

fraud allegations. She was previously executive director

of the Economics Club of Minnesota, working with its

co-founders former  Congressmen Tim Penny and 

Mark Kennedy. In 2024, she initially supported Nikki

Haley for president before later endorsing President

Trump. Her main challenge will be to win over the large

Trump base in the state. As a suburban woman, she

will have special appeal to that key swing group.

Kendall Quarles is a black entrepreneur who ran a

strong race for the GOP gubernatorial endorsement

in 2022. He fell short them but has stayed active in 

GOP politics since, including hosting a popular TV 

show and speaking out on current issues.

With more than a year until this election, it is quite 

possible that one or more other major conservative

candidates will enter the race.

Although no other major DFL candidate has 

announced for governor, some very prominent

office holders are known to be interested in

running for governor. They include Lt. Governor

Peggy Flanagan (now running for the open  U.S.

Senate seat next year), Attorney General Keith

Ellison and Secretary of State Steve Simon.

None of them are currently expected to challenge

incumbent Walz, but if the governor’s re-election

campaign falters, that could change.

There is also the possibility of a serious 

independent campaign for governor in 2026.

In 1998, independent Jesse Ventura actually

defeated both DFL and GOP nominees for an upset

win of the governorship. And subsequent campaigns

by independents Tim Penny and Peter Hutchinson

drew enough votes to affect the outcome the

years that they ran.

Although it is early in this race, political events this

November could have considerable impact on

next year’s races — particularly the Minneapolis

mayoral race where DFL liberal incumbent 

Jacob Frey is being seriously challenged by DFL

radical progressive Omar Fatah, This race has

divided the usually united DFL. Governor Walz

has endorsed Frey, but several prominent DFLers

are supporting neo-socialist Fatah. No matter who 

wins this race, its aftermath could reach into the 2026

race for governor.

_________________________________________________

Copyrigjht (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rightds reserved.