THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Special Upcoming Special Elections

 

On April 2, there will be three elections, one for a

justice of the Wisconsin state supreme court, and

two special congressional elections in Florida to

fill vacancies that resulted when Republican 

incumbents were offered positions in the second 

Trump administration which began on January 20.

Normally, such elections have only significant impact

locally, but this year the impact could be much greater.

On paper, Republicans would be favored to win all

three, but polls and other signs indicate that 

Democrats might win upsets in one, tow or all three

races.

The Wisconsin supreme court race is important

because the party of the winner will give that party

a majority on the state court. On political questions,

this court almost always divides along party lines.

Upcoming is a determination of new congressional

boundaries, and other election issues about which

there is sharp partisan disagreement.

Wisconsin has been a truly purple state in the

recent past with a Democrat as governor, one GOP

and one Democrat representing the state in the U.S.

Senate, five Republicans and three Democrats in the

U.S. House. Democrats hold lt. governor, attorney

general and secretary of state; a Republican is state

treasurer, and the GOP controls both hoses of the

state legislature.

Congressman-elect Matt Goetz, a Florida Republican,

was nominated to be attorney general by President-

elect Donald Trump, and he resigned from Congress

before taking the oath in January. (He later also

withdrew from consideration for the cabinet post.)

Florida Congressman Mike Waltz resigned to join the

Trump cabinet.

Both of these vacancies are holding special elections

on Tuesday, April 2. Although both districts are usually

reliably conservative, GOP party officials have been

expressing concern that Democrats might win one or

both of them.

Should any of these races provide upsets, the question

will be is there a sudden surge of Democrats voting in

protest to President Trump, or having won the 2024

election, are GOP voters no longer motivated to vote

as they were last year.

The actual vote totals will likely answer that question,

but in spite of the anger and disappointment of liberal

and progressive voters, it is more likely that 

conservative voters could fail to turn out in elections

which do not have Donald Trump on the ballot.

Since Republicans currently hold 218 U.S. House seats,

the election of Democrats to the Florida vacancies, and

later to the other two vacancies, would not change

political control of the U.S. House —- although the GOP

margin would only be one seat.

President Trump’s recent withdrawal of New York

Congresswoman Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be U.N.

ambassador thus avoided a worse-case outcome in which

a special election of her seat plus the loss of the four

current vacancies could give the Democrats a one-seat

majority and the House speakership.

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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

UPDATE ON APRIL  2:

The Democratic candidate for Wisconsin supreme court justice

won this race by about 10 points. She had led in pre-election

polling by 2-7 points, Turnout was historically heavy.

Both Republican congressional candidates won their special

elections to fill recent vacancies. Although each of them won

by double digits, their margins were less than half of what

they were for these seats in 2024.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Free World Voters Abandoning Old Ideologies

Almost all at once, new leaders have appeared in the

nations of the free world — even as dictators remain

stubbornly in place in the world’s totalitarian states.

Most recently, Mark Carney was named the new prime

minister of Canada, replacing liberal Justin Trudeau who

resigned. A popular new conservative opposition leader 

might replace him in the upcoming Canadian elections

at the end of April. The primary issues in that election

are not the usual left-tight ones, but which party can

most successfully deal with the new challenges from

the U.S.

In rhe U.S,. former President Donald Trump made an

extraordinary political comeback from his defeat in

2t20, and was sworn in as the nation’s 47th chief of

state, Left-right ideological patterns have changed im

U,S, politics with the Republican attracting working

class and ethnic voters from the Democrats, and

Democrats attracting upper middle class and highly

educated voters who formerly voted Republican,

In Mexico, Claudia Scheinbaum was elected its new

president, the nation’s first woman and Jewish leader.

In South America, Argentina elected libertarian Javier

Milei as president, reversing decades of corrupt 

Peronist-run government, and bringing economic 

prosperity back to the nation after a century of decline.

In Europe, new generations of leaders are appearing.

Conservative Giorgia Meloni is the new  leader of Italy. 

Conservative Frederich Merz is the new chancellor

of Germany, Long-time leaders of France, Netherlands

Spain and other nations have lost their parliamentary

majorities, and face imminent defeat by new opposition

leaders in upcoming elections. There is a new prime

minister in the U.K. Political change seems to be in the

air in virtually every European nation.

Although there has been a general trend to the political

right, there are notable exceptions to this. The engine

for voters appears to be an impatience with the failures

of government leaders regardless of ideology, and a 

desire of voters for practical solutions to chronic and

widespread problems.

Since most of the free world is made of nations which

have already, or are now developing, their industrial

and natural resource capabilities, spawned a growing

prosperous middle class, and established  strong

historical and cultural traditions, the single most 

unsettling and widespread new issue is the impact of

recent mass migrations from more undeveloped nations

to the more developed ones in Europe.

In the past, similar migrations, most notably from 19th

century Europe and Asia to the United States, the 

immigrants sought out the institutions of freedom and

prosperity, embraced them after arrival, enhanced

them and became integrated into the national society.

In Europe today, however, many recent immigrants

refuse to accept or adapt to the cultural, religious, legal 

and economic traditions of the countries they emigrate 

to, disrupting the local societies in which they now live. 

Unlike the U.S., European countries lacked much 

variety in their populations, and the immigrants’

existential threat to European identity has provoked

widespread backlash.

Although  the British government was conservative, it

failed to deal with the U.K. immigration issues, and

Labor won the last election. Conversely, the leftist

Danish government did deal forcefully with immigration,

and was re-elected.despite a conservative tide elsewhere

in their region.

The appearance of new leaders is notable, but a more

significant development seems to be that voters in North

America and Europe are less traditionally ideological than

ever, and more demanding that the persons they elect

be problem-solvers.

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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.