THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Senate Mid-Term Battlegrounds Update

An early survey of next year’s mid-term U.S. Senate races

indicates that despite the fact that 22 Republican 

incumbent seats are on the ballot, and just 13 Democrat

incumbent seats, only 6 seats, 4 Democrats and 2 

Republicans now appear to be close races. 

With the GOP currently holding a 53-47 majority, this is 

good news for conservatives, but it is always possible

that more incumbent seats could become vulnerable,

and the usual advantage of the opposition party in a new

president’s first mid-term could come into play.

The 6 battleground races are in Georgia, Maine, Michigan,

Minnesota, New Hampshire and North Carolina. 

Although they are usually safe GOP seats, incumbents in 

Texas and Louisiana are facing intraparty challenges in 

their primaries, and could provide Democrats with an

opportunity. Other states, including Kentucky and 

Colorado could also develop into closer contests.

One of the most vulnerable incumbents is Georgia

Democrat Jon Ossoff who barely won his seat in a run-off

in 2020. Georgia is  usually a red state, but it sends two

Democrats to the Senate. Until he decided not to run for

the seat next year, popular GOP Governor Brian Kemp

was the heavy favorite to win his party’s nomination and

to defeat Ossoff in November. Lacking a frontrunner to

oppose Ossoff, Republicans now must scramble if they

are to pick up this seat.

Maine Senator Susan Collins is the only GOP senator in 

the U.S. northeast, and always faces a serious challenge

from the Democrats. In the past, she has come out on

top on election day, but this might be her most vulnerable

race.

Incumbent Michigan Democrat Senator Gary Peters  is 

retiring, and the likely GOP nominee for the open seat,

former Congressman Mike Rogers will be formidable

after almost winning the previous open seat in 2024. 

There are numerous Democrats vying for the seat, but

no frontrunner yet. Although the state has been 

leaning blue, President Trump carried it in 2024.

Very blue Minnesota presented Republicans with a

pick-up opportunity when Democrat incumbent Tina

Smith announced her retirement. Lt. Governor Peggy

Flanagan and 2nd District Congresswoman Angie

Craig, both Democrats, are running. Craig has been a

formidable campaigner in her purple district. Meanwhile,

Republicans have not yet a candidate in the race who

can win.

Another GOP pick-up opportunity occurred when New

Hampshire Democrat Jeanne Shaheen decided to

retire next year. This open seat race will probably be

between former U,S, Senator (from Massachusetts)

Scott brown, a Republican, vs Democrat Congressman

Chris Pappas. Brown moved to this state a dozen years 

ago. This contest leans Democrat, but it could be a very

close race.

Finally, GOP incumbent Thom Tillis of North Carolina is

facing a potentially serious challenge in his first 

re-election. Former Governor Ray Cooper could be

formidable if he ran, but there are several other

liberal candidates if he does not run.This state leans

red, but Democrats are turning the state more purple.

Republicans also have to defend an open seat in

Kentucky, where long-time incumbent Mitch McConnell

is retiring. State Attorney General Daniel Cameron and

Congressman Andy Barr, both Republicans, are already

in the race, but CNN commentator Scott Jennings  could

receive an all-important endorsement from President

Trump and win the nomination. When popular Governor

Andy Beshear decided not to run, this became a likely

GOP race.

In two strongly red states, Incumbent Republicans are

facing serious primary challenges from other Republicans.

Texas senator John Cornyn actually currently trails in

polls, and Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy is facing a 

strong challenge. If one or both of these incumbents lost

their primaries, these safe GOP seats might become 

competitive. 

Although it’s still early, the 2026 U.S. senate races are 

now coming into more focus. These races will likely see 

massive spending, and fundraising for them has to

begin as early as possible. Recruitment for candidates

against incumbents or for open seats is always a key

factor, and as pointed out above, both Democrats and

Republicans still have work to do —- with time quickly

running out.

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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: The Elections In Canada

 

Overoming a twenty-point deficit in public opinion polls,

Canada’s Liberal Party, led by  banker Mark Carney,

won a plurality of seats to the Canadian parliament, as

well as a plurality of the popular vote across Canada,

and will form the nation’s next government.

Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau had been prime

minister for more than a decade, but his administration

had become quite unpopular, and after he called a snap

election, he was ousted as party leader and premier by

his own party, and replaced by Carney.

President Donald Trump used the U.S. trade deficit

with Canada to confront Trudeau earlier, and to assert

that Canada should become “the 51st U.S.state.

Although this aroused a new Canadian nationalism felt

by voters of all parties, it did not rescue Trudeau from

defeat, and the more moderate Carney took his place

before the election.

Meanwhile, Conservative Party leader Pierra Poilievre,

a heavy favorite to win the snap election, mishandled the

tariff issue raised by President Trump, and his big lead in

the polls disappeared.

Although Poilievre shared many ideological views with

Trump, he tried to keep his distance from the American

president, even publicly telling Trump to stay out of

Canadian politics. But it was Carney who most

successfully seized the Trump tariff issue, and he quickly

gained in the polls.

In the Canadian parliamentary system there are 343 seat

in the federal legislative body. The candidate with the

most votes, even if not a majority, wins the seat, In order

to form a government, a party or coalition of parties must

have a majority, or 172 seats.

There are two major parties in Canada, the Liberal Party

and the Conservative Party. Three minor parties usually

win seats, including the Party Quebecois, the New 

Democratic Party (NDP)and the Green Party —- each of 

which usually wins a small number of seats. In the previous

election in 2021, Trudeau’s Liberal  Party lost their

previous majority in parliament, but formed the 

government with votes from the three minor parties,

each of which were also on the political left.

This time, the Liberal Party again fell short, but did

win the most seats, 169, and will again form the

government with votes from the minor parties. In 2021,

the Conservative won the national popular vote, but

did not win the most seats, This time, many NDP,

Quebecois and Green Party voters broke ranks to vote

for the  Liberals—- to prevent the Conservatives from

winning —- and Carney’s Party also won the popular

vote.

The premier, however still faces serious issues, including

secession movements in Quebec and Alberta, and 

lingering resentment from conservative western provinces.

The tariff issue with the U.S. and President Trump also

remains unresolved. The huge international trade between

the U.S. and Canada is in limbo, and the long friendship

between the two neighbors is being tested anew.

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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselamn. All rights reserved.