An early survey of next year’s mid-term U.S. Senate races
indicates that despite the fact that 22 Republican
incumbent seats are on the ballot, and just 13 Democrat
incumbent seats, only 6 seats, 4 Democrats and 2
Republicans now appear to be close races.
With the GOP currently holding a 53-47 majority, this is
good news for conservatives, but it is always possible
that more incumbent seats could become vulnerable,
and the usual advantage of the opposition party in a new
president’s first mid-term could come into play.
The 6 battleground races are in Georgia, Maine, Michigan,
Minnesota, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
Although they are usually safe GOP seats, incumbents in
Texas and Louisiana are facing intraparty challenges in
their primaries, and could provide Democrats with an
opportunity. Other states, including Kentucky and
Colorado could also develop into closer contests.
One of the most vulnerable incumbents is Georgia
Democrat Jon Ossoff who barely won his seat in a run-off
in 2020. Georgia is usually a red state, but it sends two
Democrats to the Senate. Until he decided not to run for
the seat next year, popular GOP Governor Brian Kemp
was the heavy favorite to win his party’s nomination and
to defeat Ossoff in November. Lacking a frontrunner to
oppose Ossoff, Republicans now must scramble if they
are to pick up this seat.
Maine Senator Susan Collins is the only GOP senator in
the U.S. northeast, and always faces a serious challenge
from the Democrats. In the past, she has come out on
top on election day, but this might be her most vulnerable
race.
Incumbent Michigan Democrat Senator Gary Peters is
retiring, and the likely GOP nominee for the open seat,
former Congressman Mike Rogers will be formidable
after almost winning the previous open seat in 2024.
There are numerous Democrats vying for the seat, but
no frontrunner yet. Although the state has been
leaning blue, President Trump carried it in 2024.
Very blue Minnesota presented Republicans with a
pick-up opportunity when Democrat incumbent Tina
Smith announced her retirement. Lt. Governor Peggy
Flanagan and 2nd District Congresswoman Angie
Craig, both Democrats, are running. Craig has been a
formidable campaigner in her purple district. Meanwhile,
Republicans have not yet a candidate in the race who
can win.
Another GOP pick-up opportunity occurred when New
Hampshire Democrat Jeanne Shaheen decided to
retire next year. This open seat race will probably be
between former U,S, Senator (from Massachusetts)
Scott brown, a Republican, vs Democrat Congressman
Chris Pappas. Brown moved to this state a dozen years
ago. This contest leans Democrat, but it could be a very
close race.
Finally, GOP incumbent Thom Tillis of North Carolina is
facing a potentially serious challenge in his first
re-election. Former Governor Ray Cooper could be
formidable if he ran, but there are several other
liberal candidates if he does not run.This state leans
red, but Democrats are turning the state more purple.
Republicans also have to defend an open seat in
Kentucky, where long-time incumbent Mitch McConnell
is retiring. State Attorney General Daniel Cameron and
Congressman Andy Barr, both Republicans, are already
in the race, but CNN commentator Scott Jennings could
receive an all-important endorsement from President
Trump and win the nomination. When popular Governor
Andy Beshear decided not to run, this became a likely
GOP race.
In two strongly red states, Incumbent Republicans are
facing serious primary challenges from other Republicans.
Texas senator John Cornyn actually currently trails in
polls, and Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy is facing a
strong challenge. If one or both of these incumbents lost
their primaries, these safe GOP seats might become
competitive.
Although it’s still early, the 2026 U.S. senate races are
now coming into more focus. These races will likely see
massive spending, and fundraising for them has to
begin as early as possible. Recruitment for candidates
against incumbents or for open seats is always a key
factor, and as pointed out above, both Democrats and
Republicans still have work to do —- with time quickly
running out.
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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.