Although the national and presidential elections
are more than a year away, the political calendar,
particularly its filing deadlines, are now coming
up very soon. So is the window of time for
recruiting candidates, organizing crucial Senate
and House campaigns, fundraising, opposition
research, and so much of the preparation for
contemporary politics prior to a major election.
The 2024 cycle is unusual in many ways, not the
least of which are likely significant third party
candidates running for president. Activity is now
underway nationally for the No Labels Party,
Popular Party, and the return of the Green Party
and Libertarian Party. These third parties not
only field presidential candidates who might
drain vital votes from major party presidential
nominees, but often also put forward their own
candidates down ballot for Senate, House and
governor. They can also affect election outcomes.
Filing and qualification deadlines for third party
ballot access are not the only upcoming dates to
be considered. Every political contest has a filing
cut-off date, and these vary from state to state.
Filing dates for candidates for 2024 state
primaries occur in some cases as early as
October, 2023, and most of them are in
December and January. There are numerous
competitive or battleground Senate and House
races likely this cycle, but not all probable
nominees to challenge incumbents are yet in
place. Only this week, David McCormick, the
likely Republican nominee, is finally announcing
his candidacy in the battleground Pennsylvania
U.S. Senate race. Other likely competitive 2024
Senate and House races do not yet have major
challengers declared running.
[I work with and frequently go to Ballotpedia
(ballotpedia.org ) for authoritative local, state, and
national election information, including state filing
dates. Readers going to this site can obtain
individual 2024 filing deadlines as they are made
available from each state — as well as
exhaustive details about candidates, polls,
fundraising, ballot history and endorsements.]
Also, several incumbents of both parties
are only now announcing their decisions to
retire. An example of this was Utah Senator
Mitt Romney a few days ago revealing he will
not run for re-election next year. In his case, his
successor will almost certainly be a Republican,
but in other instances, especially certain House
races, late decisions, usually for health reasons,
could lead to now unanticipated pick-ups by the
other party.
A national effort by some Democrats to prevent
Donald Trump’s name from appearing on
individual state ballots next November, assuming
that he would be the Republican Party presidential
nominee, is underway through legal actions to some
secretaries of state. These unprecedented suits
contend that ambiguous Constitutional language
disqualifies Trump from the federal ballot. So far,
courts have rejected these efforts, and some
secretaries of state have declined to deny Trump
ballot access unless ordered to do so by appropriate
courts, but the issue remains for now unresolved.
The timing of major political campaigns has
changed dramatically in recent years. Many factors
have caused this to happen. Campaign financing is
certainly a major factor, and organizing, media
buying, voter identification, and get-out-the-vote
strategies also are factors.
But the political calendar is now often overlooked for
its importance. Pundits frequently utter cliches about
voter decisions being made late, inaccurate early polls
and that much can happen late in any cycle, but the
influence of the political calendar, imposing earlier
and earlier campaign decisions, is a factor of no
little consequence.
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Copyright (c) 2023 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved
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