When he ran for Speaker of the House of Representatives
last January, California Congressman Kevin McCarthy
persisted through fifteen ballots to win the post, but only
after he agreed to change the House rules. One of those
changed rules has now brought an end to his speakership,
and this should be foremost instructive to the next speaker.
Mr. McCarthy proved over the next eight-plus months to be
an adroit and better-than-expected leader of his caucus
and for his Republican Party, but his tenure was always on
shaky ground because as part of his bargain with those
who were blocking his election, he agreed that only a single
GOP House member could bring a motion to remove him
as speaker, Because the GOP margin in the House was
only 222 to 213, just five votes, that meant it would not be
difficult for a small dissatisfied minority to take him out of
his office.
It was the fatal flaw in this bargain which made the legendary
Sword of Damocles seem like a security blanket by
comparison. His colleague Matt Gaetz, who had led the
initial opposition to McCarthy, wielded the rule as a weapon
of political blackmail over the next eight months, and when
Speaker McCarthy passed, with Democrat votes, a 45-day
continuing resolution to avoid a partial government shutdown,
he and seven other GOP hardline deficit hawks joined 208
Democrats to vacate Mr. McCarthy’s speakership. (Nine
members did not vote on the motion.)
The now former speaker has announced he will not run for
the post again, surprising many of his supporters, and so
there will be a new speaker.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is the heavy favorite
to be the new speaker. Well-liked by his colleagues, he even
has the support of Mr.. Gaetz. There will likely also be other
candidates, and the voting will begin Wednesday, October 11,
according to Speaker Pro Tem Congressman Patrick McHenry
of North Carolina who is temporarily in charge until a new
speaker is chosen.
It is too early to fairly assess the impact of Mr. McCarthy’s
downfall. Some Democrats and many media commentators
are suggesting it will hurt Republican prospects for 2024,
but assuming the new speaker, whoever it is, insists on the
single-member vacate rule change, the GOP House majority,
albeit small, could re-emerge again as an effective body of
opposition it had become under Speaker McCarthy — and
do well in the 2024 national election cycle.
If that rule is not changed, the recent scenario will almost
certainly recur under the new speaker. Should that happen,
voters would likely conclude that the conservative party was
unable to effectively function, and Democrats could retake
control in 2025.
As for Matt Gaetz, his role in Kevin McCarthy’s downfall will
likely not be forgotten. Already a political loner, he now will
learn the price of his intraparty revolt, and even if his caucus
now emerges stronger, he is likely to find he has few political
friends in his own party in the House.
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Copyright (c) 2023 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.
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