Next year's national mid-term elections are especially
important because control of the U,S, Senate and House
is at stake, and therefore the ability of either the second
Trump administration to continue to remake and reform
the federal government or the ability of the Democrats
to make a political comeback and set its sights on a
return to power in 2028.
History is usually on the side of the party out of power,
in this case, the Democrats, but the current political
environment suggests that historical precedent might not
apply in 2026.
The Democrats do have the advantage in both the
Senate and House races by just the numbers. Almost
twice as many incumbent Republican Senate seats
are on the ballot, and the GOP lead in the House is
only in the single digits.
According to CNN and Wall Street Journal (WSJ) polls,
however, Democrats are registering respectively
25-point and 30-point net negative favorability among
voters —- record low numbers.
The initial response by many Democrats following
the defeat of their presidential ticket in 2024 has
been to try to move further to the left, but these
moves have made the party and many of its
candidates more unpopular, according to most polls,
including the already cited CNN and WSJ polls.
Meanwhile, President Trump — whose campaign
policy promises, including initiating tariffs and
promises to bring peace to conflicts in Europe and
the Middle East, were widely regarded with much
skepticism —- is having some initial successes,
including controlling inflation so far, some temporary
ceasefires, and making trade deals.
But these initial successes might not last. The
international environment is very brittle. Inflation
could resume and the stock market could go
down.
Economic downturns in the past have almost
always been a key factor in mid-term elections.
Democrats still dominate most cities, but further
increases in urban crime, commercial departure
from downtowns, and weakening public security
might help Republican candidates next year as
suburban and rural voters react to high visibility
inner city problems.
Candidate recruitment to fill open seats or to
oppose incumbents is a vital part of political
success. Many potentially competitive House
and Senate races have not yet settled on their
nominees or face primary battles next year.
The financial cost and organizational challenges
require candidates to announce their candidacies
well in advance of a mid-term election. That
process, now well-underway, should be mostly
concluded in the next few months.
The mid-term elections of 2026 appear likely to
be some of the most interesting in recent years,
and a test of whether historical precedent will
prevail or whether there are more political
surprises ahead.
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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.
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