THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: An Early Look At Upcoming Races For Governor

With so much public attention on the political changes

taking place at the federal level under the new Trump

administration, the partisan orientation  at the state

level is easily overlooked.

Two governor ships will be decided  this November, and

thirty-six more will be on the ballot in next year’s 

mid-term elections.

Currently, there are twenty-seven Republican governors

and twenty-three Democrats who hold their states’

highest executive office.

The two up for election in 2025 are Virginia (GOP 

incumbent) and New Jersey (Democrat incumbent),

but both are open races since their current

governors are term-limited. Democrats are favored to

win both these races although they are likely to be

competitive. Virginia and New Jersey in recent years

have favored liberal statewide candidates, although

conservative Virginia Governor Glen Youngkin’s victory 

was an upset.

In 2026, ten governorships held by Democrats, and

fifteen held by Republicans, are considered “safe”

races.

The competitive Democrat races include California

(open), Colorado (open), Wisconsin, Kansas,

Minnesota, Maine, Michigan and New Mexico —

incumbents are expected to run in the latter six states.

The battleground Republican races include Nevada,

Georgia and Iowa, the laltter two will be open contests.

Some pundits rate the Pennsylvania race as a toss-up,

but incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro is very popular

despite the Keystone State trending conservative, and

so far, the GOP has not come up with a strong candidate.

Many commentators rate the Minnesota race as “safe”

for the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL), but

a recent major poll show his re-election numbers in the

negative. If he is the DFL nominee in 2026, the race

will likely be competitive.

It is still quite early in the 2026 gubernatorial races.

Many of the nominees, Republican and Democrat, are

still unknown. Some of the races which are rated as

“safe” could become competitive.

As the first mid-term election of a new president, 2026

historically favors the Democrats, but that advantage

could be illusory since most of the battleground races 

for governor are now held by Democrats.

Unlike the federal races in a mid-term election, contests

for governor and other statewide races usually depend

on local state issues. But in the era of the second

Trump administration, intensity of support or opposition

to the president and his policies could play a greater role

than usual in next year’s campaigns.

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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.