DFL Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota has announced he
will run for a third term in office next year. No Minnesota
governor of either party has won three full terms, although
DFL Governor Rudy Perpich won two full terms after
serving out a partial term of his predecessor who resigned
to serve as a U,S, senator.
Walz and the DFL Party have controlled state politics for
two decades, although their popularity with state voters
has declined in recent years. In a new major poll, in
fact, the governor’s favorability has sunk sharply, with
less than half of voters favoring him for re-election in 2026.
As is true for many midwestern states, the liberal party
leads by a wide margin in big cities and other urban areas,
the conservative party is strong in rural and small town
areas Suburban areas are usually more evenly divided.
The DFL also has the advantage of having in recent years
a much more effective get-out-the-vote operation in the
state.
In 2024, Walz was unexpectedly selected to run for
vice president on the Democratic presidential ticket
when President Joe Biden withdrew from his re-election
at virtually the last minute, and party leaders decided
to replace him with then-Vice President Kamal Harris.
Harris recently said her first choice for a running mate
had been Secretary of Transportation Peter Buttigieg,
but thinking he might be too controversial, she chose
Walz instead.
Walz’s subsequent vice presidential campaign was
marred, however, by a series if mis-statements and
blunders, and his presence on the ticket did nothing
to alleviate the decisive loss in November to the GOP
ticket of Donald Trump and J.D. Vance.
Walz’s national performance apparently also further
eroded his support in Minnesota, as evidenced by
recent polls, but that has not deterred him for one more
statewide campaign.
The obvious question then is can the Republicans defeat
him next year,
There are three principal GOP candidates already in the
race. One is Dr. Scott Jensen who was the Republican
nominee in 2022, but fell short after some initial campaign
blunders and lost to Walz. In his one-on-one meetings with
voters, however, the medical physician gained a base
of support, primarily among out-state voters. His challenge
in 2026 is to demonstrate he learned from 2022, and to
show he can successfully confront Walz and the DFL
urban political GOTV machine.
A first-time statewide candidate next year is State
Representative Kristin Robbins who has made a name
for herself with her legislative investigations into state
fraud allegations. She was previously executive director
of the Economics Club of Minnesota, working with its
co-founders former Congressmen Tim Penny and
Mark Kennedy. In 2024, she initially supported Nikki
Haley for president before later endorsing President
Trump. Her main challenge will be to win over the large
Trump base in the state. As a suburban woman, she
will have special appeal to that key swing group.
Kendall Quarles is a black entrepreneur who ran a
strong race for the GOP gubernatorial endorsement
in 2022. He fell short them but has stayed active in
GOP politics since, including hosting a popular TV
show and speaking out on current issues.
With more than a year until this election, it is quite
possible that one or more other major conservative
candidates will enter the race.
Although no other major DFL candidate has
announced for governor, some very prominent
office holders are known to be interested in
running for governor. They include Lt. Governor
Peggy Flanagan (now running for the open U.S.
Senate seat next year), Attorney General Keith
Ellison and Secretary of State Steve Simon.
None of them are currently expected to challenge
incumbent Walz, but if the governor’s re-election
campaign falters, that could change.
There is also the possibility of a serious
independent campaign for governor in 2026.
In 1998, independent Jesse Ventura actually
defeated both DFL and GOP nominees for an upset
win of the governorship. And subsequent campaigns
by independents Tim Penny and Peter Hutchinson
drew enough votes to affect the outcome the
years that they ran.
Although it is early in this race, political events this
November could have considerable impact on
next year’s races — particularly the Minneapolis
mayoral race where DFL liberal incumbent
Jacob Frey is being seriously challenged by DFL
radical progressive Omar Fatah, This race has
divided the usually united DFL. Governor Walz
has endorsed Frey, but several prominent DFLers
are supporting neo-socialist Fatah. No matter who
wins this race, its aftermath could reach into the 2026
race for governor.
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Copyrigjht (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rightds reserved.
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