barrycasselman: THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Weekend Update 21

Saturday, August 27, 2016

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Weekend Update 21

WHAT POST-BREXIT CRASH?
Before the British vote (‘Brexit’) on leaving the European Union
(EU), its opponents warned of imminent economic and political
disasters if it were to pass. After Brexit did pass, the same
opponents promptly reiterated their warnings. Now, months
later, the dire outcomes have yet to appear. There has been,
of course, some impact in remaining EU nations. led by
Germany, to regroup and to head off further defections. Still
an EU member for at least a year, the United Kingdom (UK) is
preparing for new economic and trade relationships, many
which will be with EU nations. The Brexit vote did precipitate
new leadership in the UK government, including a new prime
minister and cabinet. Economic problems continue to fester
in various EU member states, provoking some banking crises.
Complications in continental immigration policies continue to
plague even the most prosperous EU member states, most
notably Germany. Brexit might turn out to be one of the least
of Europe’s challenges.

OBAMACARE DISASTER RETURNS
TO VOTERS’ ATTENTION
A series of major insurance companies departing from
participation in the Obama administration’s healthcare reform
program known as Obamacare plus much higher rates in many
existing state Obamacare policies have brought the contentious
issue back into the political election of 2016. The issue proved a
major problem for the national Democratic Party which had heavy
losses in the 2010 and 2014 mid-term elections, but did not seem
to affect the outcome in the 2012 presidential election year.
With Obamacare now in full force, still very unpopular, and with
rising premium rates, the issue is giving several vulnerable
Republican U.S. house and senate candidates some valuable
ammunition against their liberal challengers.

SOME SENATE RACES TIGHTENING
Although the Obamacare issue previously cited is helping
Republican vulnerable congressional incumbents in close races
this cycle, other issues, including GOP nominee Donald Trump’s
controversies, are potentially helping Democratic challengers in
other races. Incumbent Senator Roy Blunt of Missouri has a
tightening race with Democratic challenger Julian Kander ---
although Blunt maintains a lead. Incumbent Pennsylvania GOP
Senator Pat Toomey had led his challenger Katie McGinty until
recently, but several recent polls have him trailing. The two most
endangered GOP senate incumbents, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin
and Mark Kirk of Illinois, continue to trail their liberal
challengers. Arizona GOP Senator John McCain, his party’s 2008
presidential nominee, had been thought to be safe for his 2016
re-election, but with his Democratic opponent on the left and some
lingering opposition from some conservatives, his seat now looks
more and more competitive. GOP incumbent Kelly Ayotte of New
Hampshire is locked into a close contest with her challenger
Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan. A few bright spots for
Republicans are in Florida where incumbent Marco Rubio is
looking stronger against either of two potential Democratic
challengers, and in Nevada where GOP nominee Joe Heck is
ahead of his Democratic opponent Catherine Cortez Masto in the
race for the seat being vacated by Democrat Harry Reid. Races
also looking better for conservatives are in Iowa where veteran
GOP Senator Chuck Grassley now has a bigger lead over his
opponent, and in Ohio where incumbent Rob Portman continues
to lead Democrat Ted Strickland. Democrats are feeling much
better about the race in Indiana where they had been far behind
GOP candidate Todd Young. Then their nominee left the race
to make way for for former Democratic Senator Evan Bayh who
instantly made the race competitive. Democratic incumbent
Senator Michael Bennett of Colorado continues to have a notable
lead over his GOP challenger, but this race could become
competitive, as could some other races now considered safe for
incumbents.

One feature of most election cycles, even ones much less volatile
than this one, is that a few contests often develop into close races
in the closing days of the campaign.

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Copyright (c) 2016 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

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About Barry Casselman

BARRY CASSELMAN is an author, journalist and lecturer who has reported and analyzed American presidential and national politics since 1972.

He founded, edited and published his first newspaper when he was 29. He has been a contributor to many national publications, including The Weekly Standard, realclearpolitics.com, Politico, Roll Call, Washington Examiner, The American Interest, Utne Reader, Campaigns and Elections Magazine, American Experiment Quarterly, Washington Times, The Rothenberg Political Report, Business Today, Election Politics, Business Ethics Magazine, San Francisco Examiner, Washington Insider, and American Commonwealth.

His regular op ed columns and other commentary in print, and on the internet, are distributed through the Preludium News Service. His blog ‘The Prairie Editor” has an international readership and appears on his website at www.barrycasselman.com .

He was a political analyst for WCCO-AM (CBS) for several years, for KSJN-AM (Public Radio International), and for KUOM-AM (National Public Radio). He has also broadcast on RAE in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and beginning in 2000, he produced and broadcast for Voice of America. In 2006, he presented news commentary on LBC, the independent 24-hour news radio network in London, England. He also provided election night analysis in 2006 for Minnesota Public Radio. In 2008, he returned to WCCO-AM for periodic national election commentary. Beginning in 2011, he began weekly commentary on the 2012 presidential campaign on a national radio podcast program originating in Dallas, TX.

Casselman was the original host of “Talk To Your City” on the Minneapolis Television Network, and was a frequent political commentator for KTCA-TV (PBS). In 1992 and 1994, he presented election night analysis for the Conus coast-to-coast All News Channel. In 1996, he provided live coverage from the presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire for All News Channel nationwide. He has also appeared on C-SPAN. In 2008, he was interviewed by ABC-TV Evening News with Charles Gibson.

He has covered national presidential primaries, caucuses and straw polls since 1976, and attended Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1988. He has traveled throughout the United States to report on significant political events, including the national congressional debate in Williamsburg in 1996, the presidential debates, national conventions and events of the Democratic Leadership Council, Democratic National Committee, Republican National Committee, United We Stand America, Reform Party, National Governors Association, NAACP, AFL-CIO, Christian Coalition, CPAC, Green Party and the Independence Party.

In 2012, he was invited to be a civilian participant in the 58th annual seminar on national security at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, PA. Also in 2012, he was a speaker at the Jefferson Educational Society's Global Summit IV. At that event, he received the Thomas Hagen "Dignitas" Award for lifetime achievement.

From 1990-2011, he was the executive director of the non-profit International Conference Foundation, and hosted more than 500 world leaders, foreign journalists and other international visitors. At the non-partisan Foundation, he also organized four national symposia: the first on low-income housing with then-HUD Secretary Jack Kemp; the second, a highly-acclaimed conference on “Locating the New Political Center in America” with Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and leading spokespersons of the Clinton administration as well as newly-emerged independent groups; the third, a symposium on public communications with then-Governor Tom Ridge, former White House press secretary Mike McCurry, Tony Blankley and other national figures; and in 2003, a symposium on homeland security with Secretary Ridge and leading local and national experts. During this time, he also organized numerous smaller conferences, tours and events for the U.S. Information Agency and the U.S. Department of State for its International Visitor Program and its Foreign Press Center programs. In 2008, he organized a special program for international media and visitors attending the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. The Foundation also sponsored programs presenting domestic and international authors and their books.

In 2007, Mr. Casselman helped create and plan the nationally-broadcast and podcast dialogue between former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at the Cooper Union in New York City, and he continued to work on related debate and public policy discussion projects in the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Mr. Casselman has been a lecturer on public policy at Princeton University’s annual international business conferences in New York, and its regional conferences in Chicago since 2005; He also has been a guest lecturer at George Washington University, Carleton College, The Chautauqua (NY) Institution, Gannon University, Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Santa Barbara City College, University of St. Thomas, Metropolitan State University, Augsburg College, University of Minnesota, Jefferson Educational Society, and on the international voyages of the Queen Elizabeth 2, Sagafjord, Vistafjord and Royal Viking Sun. He has made presentations on journalism and the arts at Carleton College, University of Minnesota, College of St. Catherine, Minneapolis College of Art and Design, Walker Art Center, Metropolitan State University, Mercyhurst College and the Brazilian Writers Union in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

His non-fiction book North Star Rising was published in 2007 by Pogo Press, an imprint of Finney Company. In 2008, Pogo Press published Minnesota Souvenir, Casselman’s history and visitor guide for the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul. He was editor and co-author of the book Taking Turns: Political Stalemate or a New Direction in the Race for 2012, a preview of that year's national election.

He has been cited in Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics and in William Safire’s Political Dictionary. Casselman has invented a number of political words and phrases which are now in frequent usage, and listed in various online dictionaries.

He is also a widely-published American poet, short story writer and playwright whose work has been translated and published in Europe, South America and Asia. He is the author of four published books of literary prose and poetry. His work has been frequently anthologized. Two of his plays, in collaboration with composer Randall Davidson, have been performed by the Actors Theater of St. Paul, Minnesota Orchestra, St. Donat’s Ensemble of Wales, and by independent productions at the Union Depot in St. Paul and the Foss Theater at Augsburg College in Minneapolis. He has provided original texts for two award-winning experimental films, as well as texts for other independent short films and videos.

Barry Casselman was born in Erie, Pennsylvania. He received his B.A. with major honors from the University of Pennsylvania and his M.F.A. at the Writers Workshop at the University of Iowa. He has also studied in Paris, and attended the University of Madrid. He now lives in Minneapolis.

Saturday, August 27, 2016

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Weekend Update 21

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