barrycasselman: THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Campaign Update 20

Friday, August 5, 2016

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Campaign Update 20

DOWN-BALLOT FOCUS
With the current controversies surrounding the Republican
presidential nominee Donald Trump, there are signs that a
quiet but massive effort is being made by GOP activists,
donors and PACs, to concentrate on U.S. house and senate,
as well as state legislature, races in November. The
conservative party currently controls these institutions, and
the prospect of the Democratic Party possibly keeping the
White House in 2017, has provoked an unprecedented effort
to prioritize the down-ballot races in 2016. The liberal media
is not reporting this, and GOP strategists are strategically not
yet calling attention to their efforts. There is considerable
historical basis for this strategy. Landslide victories in the
presidential contests in the recent past have not always meant
down-ballot disaster for the losing political party. The GOP
majority in the U.S. house is currently so large that some
Democratic gains were expected even if the GOP presidential
nominee were to win. With a liberal win in November, that net
gain might be larger, but there are still Democratic seats that
could be lost (such as Minnesota District 8) even should Hillary
Clinton win. Although many more conservative U.S. senate
seats are up for re-election this cycle, there seems to be only
limited opportunity for liberals to pick up the necessary four
or five seats to regain the majority. With polls indicating who
the vulnerable GOP incumbents are, that party’s leaders and
operatives appear to be putting enormous resources, both
financial and feet-on-the-ground, into these races, resources
the Democrats, concentrating on the top of the ticket, might
not be able to match. A second factor that might help the GOP
down-ballot effort is the unprecedented number of vulnerable
incumbents putting political distance between themselves
and GOP nominee Donald Trump. The issue of who would
nominate new U.S. supreme court justices, and whether they
could be confirmed by the new senate, remains a major issue
in the November campaign on both sides.

LIBERAL MIDWEST HOUSE SEAT PICK-UP?
While conservatives have high hopes of a few pick-ups in U.S.
house seats in November, they face several almost-certain
losses. With the GOP party primary in Minnesota slated for
August 9, maverick Jason Lewis has the party endorsement
and is expected to win the primary in District 2. Openly
supporting the disruptive GOP Freedom Caucus, Lewis would
not have the support of many conservatives in November,
and likely lose to Democratic nominee Angie Craig. Retiring
GOP incumbent John Kline and party activists are supporting
corporate executive Darlene Miller --- who many observers
consider more likely to give Ms. Craig a close race in November.
Voting is expected to be lquite ight in the August primary, and
this further favors Mr. Lewis, although a massive effort by
Miller supporters could produce an upset.

HOW LONG CAN ANGELA MERKEL INSIST?
While most non-Germans might sympathize with German
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s humanitarian stand on
immigrants, and understand that nation’s sensitivity to
humanitarian issues seven decades after World War II, there
is some serious question about how long she can maintain her
current open immigration policy in the face of rapidly rising
opposition to it in the German electorate. Frequent terrorist
events in Germany and elsewhere in Europe are fanning not
only anti-immigrant feeling, but are fueling new nationalist
groups throughout the European Union.

IF TRUMP RESIGNS, WHO WOULD BE
THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE?
Although it would be historically unprecedented, and even
now seems very unlikely, the recent controversies surrounding
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s campaign
have provoked some speculation of what might happen if the
New York billionaire were to resign from the ticket. The
technical answer is that the Republican National Committee
(RNC) would choose a successor by majority vote. The list of
possible successors is large, and includes House Speaker Paul
Ryan, 2012 nominee Mitt Romney, Ohio Governor John Kasich,
Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, New
Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Speaker Newt
Gingrich. A compromise choice not on this list would also be
possible. A big question to be answered in such a circumstance
would be the status of GOP vice presidential nominee Mike
Pence --- although his positive performance so far might lead
to his remaining on the ballot no matter who is chosen to head
the ticket.

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Copyright (c) 2016 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

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About Barry Casselman

BARRY CASSELMAN is an author, journalist and lecturer who has reported and analyzed American presidential and national politics since 1972.

He founded, edited and published his first newspaper when he was 29. He has been a contributor to many national publications, including The Weekly Standard, realclearpolitics.com, Politico, Roll Call, Washington Examiner, The American Interest, Utne Reader, Campaigns and Elections Magazine, American Experiment Quarterly, Washington Times, The Rothenberg Political Report, Business Today, Election Politics, Business Ethics Magazine, San Francisco Examiner, Washington Insider, and American Commonwealth.

His regular op ed columns and other commentary in print, and on the internet, are distributed through the Preludium News Service. His blog ‘The Prairie Editor” has an international readership and appears on his website at www.barrycasselman.com .

He was a political analyst for WCCO-AM (CBS) for several years, for KSJN-AM (Public Radio International), and for KUOM-AM (National Public Radio). He has also broadcast on RAE in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and beginning in 2000, he produced and broadcast for Voice of America. In 2006, he presented news commentary on LBC, the independent 24-hour news radio network in London, England. He also provided election night analysis in 2006 for Minnesota Public Radio. In 2008, he returned to WCCO-AM for periodic national election commentary. Beginning in 2011, he began weekly commentary on the 2012 presidential campaign on a national radio podcast program originating in Dallas, TX.

Casselman was the original host of “Talk To Your City” on the Minneapolis Television Network, and was a frequent political commentator for KTCA-TV (PBS). In 1992 and 1994, he presented election night analysis for the Conus coast-to-coast All News Channel. In 1996, he provided live coverage from the presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire for All News Channel nationwide. He has also appeared on C-SPAN. In 2008, he was interviewed by ABC-TV Evening News with Charles Gibson.

He has covered national presidential primaries, caucuses and straw polls since 1976, and attended Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1988. He has traveled throughout the United States to report on significant political events, including the national congressional debate in Williamsburg in 1996, the presidential debates, national conventions and events of the Democratic Leadership Council, Democratic National Committee, Republican National Committee, United We Stand America, Reform Party, National Governors Association, NAACP, AFL-CIO, Christian Coalition, CPAC, Green Party and the Independence Party.

In 2012, he was invited to be a civilian participant in the 58th annual seminar on national security at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, PA. Also in 2012, he was a speaker at the Jefferson Educational Society's Global Summit IV. At that event, he received the Thomas Hagen "Dignitas" Award for lifetime achievement.

From 1990-2011, he was the executive director of the non-profit International Conference Foundation, and hosted more than 500 world leaders, foreign journalists and other international visitors. At the non-partisan Foundation, he also organized four national symposia: the first on low-income housing with then-HUD Secretary Jack Kemp; the second, a highly-acclaimed conference on “Locating the New Political Center in America” with Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and leading spokespersons of the Clinton administration as well as newly-emerged independent groups; the third, a symposium on public communications with then-Governor Tom Ridge, former White House press secretary Mike McCurry, Tony Blankley and other national figures; and in 2003, a symposium on homeland security with Secretary Ridge and leading local and national experts. During this time, he also organized numerous smaller conferences, tours and events for the U.S. Information Agency and the U.S. Department of State for its International Visitor Program and its Foreign Press Center programs. In 2008, he organized a special program for international media and visitors attending the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. The Foundation also sponsored programs presenting domestic and international authors and their books.

In 2007, Mr. Casselman helped create and plan the nationally-broadcast and podcast dialogue between former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at the Cooper Union in New York City, and he continued to work on related debate and public policy discussion projects in the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Mr. Casselman has been a lecturer on public policy at Princeton University’s annual international business conferences in New York, and its regional conferences in Chicago since 2005; He also has been a guest lecturer at George Washington University, Carleton College, The Chautauqua (NY) Institution, Gannon University, Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Santa Barbara City College, University of St. Thomas, Metropolitan State University, Augsburg College, University of Minnesota, Jefferson Educational Society, and on the international voyages of the Queen Elizabeth 2, Sagafjord, Vistafjord and Royal Viking Sun. He has made presentations on journalism and the arts at Carleton College, University of Minnesota, College of St. Catherine, Minneapolis College of Art and Design, Walker Art Center, Metropolitan State University, Mercyhurst College and the Brazilian Writers Union in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

His non-fiction book North Star Rising was published in 2007 by Pogo Press, an imprint of Finney Company. In 2008, Pogo Press published Minnesota Souvenir, Casselman’s history and visitor guide for the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul. He was editor and co-author of the book Taking Turns: Political Stalemate or a New Direction in the Race for 2012, a preview of that year's national election.

He has been cited in Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics and in William Safire’s Political Dictionary. Casselman has invented a number of political words and phrases which are now in frequent usage, and listed in various online dictionaries.

He is also a widely-published American poet, short story writer and playwright whose work has been translated and published in Europe, South America and Asia. He is the author of four published books of literary prose and poetry. His work has been frequently anthologized. Two of his plays, in collaboration with composer Randall Davidson, have been performed by the Actors Theater of St. Paul, Minnesota Orchestra, St. Donat’s Ensemble of Wales, and by independent productions at the Union Depot in St. Paul and the Foss Theater at Augsburg College in Minneapolis. He has provided original texts for two award-winning experimental films, as well as texts for other independent short films and videos.

Barry Casselman was born in Erie, Pennsylvania. He received his B.A. with major honors from the University of Pennsylvania and his M.F.A. at the Writers Workshop at the University of Iowa. He has also studied in Paris, and attended the University of Madrid. He now lives in Minneapolis.

Friday, August 5, 2016

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Campaign Update 20

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