THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: 2026 Mid-terms: Precedent Or Surprise?

Next year's national mid-term elections are especially

important because control of the U,S, Senate and House

is at stake, and therefore the ability of either the second

Trump administration to continue to remake and reform

the federal government or the ability of the Democrats

to make a political comeback and set its sights on a 

return to power in 2028.

History is usually on the side of the party out of power,

in this case, the Democrats, but the current political

environment suggests that historical precedent might not

apply  in 2026.

The Democrats do have the advantage in both the

Senate and House races by just the numbers. Almost

twice as many incumbent Republican Senate seats 

are on the ballot, and the GOP lead in the House is  

only in the single digits.

According to CNN and Wall Street Journal (WSJ) polls,

however, Democrats are registering respectively 

25-point and 30-point net negative favorability among

voters —- record low numbers.

The initial response by many Democrats following

the defeat of their presidential ticket in 2024 has

been to try to move further to the left, but these

moves  have made the party and many of its

candidates more unpopular, according to most polls,

including the already cited CNN and WSJ polls.

Meanwhile, President Trump — whose campaign

policy promises, including initiating tariffs and

promises to bring peace to conflicts in Europe and

the Middle East, were widely regarded with much

skepticism —- is having some initial successes,

including controlling inflation so far, some temporary

ceasefires, and making trade deals.

But these initial successes might not last. The

international environment is very brittle. Inflation

could resume and the stock market could go

down.

Economic downturns in the past have almost

always been a key factor in mid-term elections.

Democrats still dominate most cities, but further

increases in urban crime, commercial departure

from downtowns, and weakening public security

might help Republican candidates next year as

suburban and rural voters react to high visibility

inner city problems.

Candidate recruitment to fill open seats or to

oppose incumbents is a vital part of political

success. Many potentially competitive House

and Senate races have not yet settled on their

nominees or face primary battles next year.

The financial cost and organizational challenges

require candidates to announce their candidacies

well in advance of a mid-term election. That

process, now well-underway, should be mostly

concluded in the next few months.

The mid-term elections of 2026 appear likely to

be some of the most interesting in recent years,

and a test of whether historical precedent will

prevail or whether there are more political

surprises ahead.

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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: An Early Look At Upcoming Races For Governor

With so much public attention on the political changes

taking place at the federal level under the new Trump

administration, the partisan orientation  at the state

level is easily overlooked.

Two governor ships will be decided  this November, and

thirty-six more will be on the ballot in next year’s 

mid-term elections.

Currently, there are twenty-seven Republican governors

and twenty-three Democrats who hold their states’

highest executive office.

The two up for election in 2025 are Virginia (GOP 

incumbent) and New Jersey (Democrat incumbent),

but both are open races since their current

governors are term-limited. Democrats are favored to

win both these races although they are likely to be

competitive. Virginia and New Jersey in recent years

have favored liberal statewide candidates, although

conservative Virginia Governor Glen Youngkin’s victory 

was an upset.

In 2026, ten governorships held by Democrats, and

fifteen held by Republicans, are considered “safe”

races.

The competitive Democrat races include California

(open), Colorado (open), Wisconsin, Kansas,

Minnesota, Maine, Michigan and New Mexico —

incumbents are expected to run in the latter six states.

The battleground Republican races include Nevada,

Georgia and Iowa, the laltter two will be open contests.

Some pundits rate the Pennsylvania race as a toss-up,

but incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro is very popular

despite the Keystone State trending conservative, and

so far, the GOP has not come up with a strong candidate.

Many commentators rate the Minnesota race as “safe”

for the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL), but

a recent major poll show his re-election numbers in the

negative. If he is the DFL nominee in 2026, the race

will likely be competitive.

It is still quite early in the 2026 gubernatorial races.

Many of the nominees, Republican and Democrat, are

still unknown. Some of the races which are rated as

“safe” could become competitive.

As the first mid-term election of a new president, 2026

historically favors the Democrats, but that advantage

could be illusory since most of the battleground races 

for governor are now held by Democrats.

Unlike the federal races in a mid-term election, contests

for governor and other statewide races usually depend

on local state issues. But in the era of the second

Trump administration, intensity of support or opposition

to the president and his policies could play a greater role

than usual in next year’s campaigns.

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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.