Can traditionally deep blue Minnesota really be in
play in the presidential election as recent public
opinion polls suggest it is?
Although polls are inexact, and only show us, at
best, a picture of the electorate in the present,
that picture can sometimes change dramatically
in a few months time. And when a race is very
close, polls don’t always predict the winner.
Nevertheless, there have been so many recent
polls by several pollsters, all showing the race
to be a virtual tie, that it is fair to say that this
state is “in play.”
That much is a genuine surprise. Minnesota has
not voted for the Republican presidential
nominee since 1972, and in 2020 voted
decisively for the incumbent Joe Biden who is
running for a second term in 2024. In 2016,
the GOP nominee Donald Trump came close, but
lost, as he did again in 2020.
Further, former President Trump was convicted
on several counts in a recent controversial New
York City trial. A number of voters in his own
party are also known to detest him, and he has
very few supporters among Democrats.
The phenomenon is not limited to Minnesota.
Mr. Trump leads by various margins in all of
the battleground states won by by Mr. Biden
in 2020, and is “in play” a few other deep blue
states such as Virginia and New Mexico.
Since most first-term presidents win re-election,
how is this explained?
The answer can only be voter dissatisfaction,
especially among independent voters, with
the incumbent and his administration’s
policies. In recent years, this happened to
Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush and Mr.
Trump himself.
Joe Biden’s problems are well-known, and
many of them even conceded by his supporters
who generally support him and most of his
his policies.
The president’s primary problem is his age
and the frail condition he presents in his
various public appearances. Mr. Trump is only
five years younger, but appears much more
robust in public.
Mr. Trump’s supporters seem more energized
in Minnesota, as they see m to be elsewhere, but
even if it is conceded that the state is “in play,”
he remains the underdog in the Gopher State
where Mr. Biden’s party has a far superior voter
I.D. and get-out-the-vote organization.
A Trump victory in this state would herald an
electoral college landslide and popular vote win
nationwide for the former president.
But there is a big difference between being
“in play” and winning in this state, and the
Trump campaign will need a remarkable effort and
turnout to transform their opportunity into a triumph.
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Copyright (c) 2924 by Barry Casselman. Al rights reserved.
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