There can be no reasonable doubt by now that there is a
remarkable and rare disturbance within a wide range of
the American electorate. The anger, passion and dismay of
these voters might favor different personalities and opinions,
but there is evident a general American electoral uprising.
Until now, these emotions have been directed primarily to
two figures, Bernie Sanders on the left and Donald Trump on
the right. In the earliest primaries and caucuses, Mr. Sanders
has enjoyed some success, particularly among young voters
and left populist voters, but his only opponent for the
Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton, has not only a
built-in advantage among the so-called unelected
super-delegates, but is also picking up more elected delegates
at a rate that might be difficult to overcome. (However, clouds
of legal controversy hang over Mrs. Clinton’s candidacy.)
The same is not true on the Republican side where the
darling of the right populist voters, Donald Trump, has also
won several contests, but has so far not an insurmountable
delegate lead so as to clinch the GOP nomination
before the July GOP convention in Cleveland. On the other
hand, his candidacy has most dramatized the uprising on the
right, and just before the Super Tuesday voting, many were
speculating that he was “unstoppable.”
In fact, he won seven of that day’s contests while his two major
opponents were able to win four between them. Now word comes
that Dr. Ben Carson will not participate in the next GOP debate,
and will end his campaign in a few days. This will increase the
pressure on John Kasich to withdraw as well, inasmuch as he did
so poorly on Super Tuesday and faces the humiliation of losing
his home state of Ohio on March 15. (Mr. Trump currently leads
in Ohio polls.)
This is rapidly becoming a three-person race in the GOP contest.
Marco Rubio rather obviously needs to go back to Florida, and
turn that race around before March 15. (He also currently trails
Mr. Trump in the Florida polls.) Ted Cruz will remain in the race.
The prospects for a brokered GOP convention continue to form.
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Copyright (c) 2016 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.
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