Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Super Tuesday Blues Ahead For Santorum?

The impressive showing of Mitt Romney in Arizona and
Michigan will now be followed in a few days by several
primaries on Super Tuesday. The liberal media narrative
(echoed by some conservative media pundits) before the
Michigan vote was that the former Massachusetts governor
(who had been born in Michigan) "faced defeat in his home
state" from "surging Rick Santorum." While it was no
landslide, a 32,000 vote margin for Romney (it would have
been 60,000 to 75,000 vote margin without the crossover
Democratic votes intended to sabotage Romney) was not
really a "narrow" margin. The difference between Romney
and Santorum was less than 50 votes in Iowa. THAT was
close!

The surge for Santorum lasted a few weeks, and was based on
three insignificant events, two small caucuses and a non-binding
primary in which one major candidate was not even on the
ballot. Suddenly, Mr. Santorum was leading by double digits
almost everywhere, including the respected Gallup Poll. Of
course, we had seen this "bubble" phenomenon frequently in
previous months with virtually every challenger to Mr. Romney.
Knowing Mr. Santorum's record as congressman and senator
from Pennsylvania, I immediately suggested his surge would
be brief.

Even before the Michigan vote, the air was escaping Mr.
Santorum's bubble as he was finally being vetted by the media
and his opponents. A poor debate performance and a number of
controversial statements by him were also hastening his decline,
and the last straw seemed to be his open invitation to liberal
Democrats (who would not vote for him in November) to come
into the Republican primary and sabotage Mr. Romney.

The Gallup Poll now has Mr. Romney back on top and rising
while Mr. Santorum is falling. Mr. Gingrich is not far behind, and
is also rising. Ads in Super Tuesday states where Democrats
cannot vote in Republican primaries, and where unions are not
popular, will likely show Mr. Santorum attempted cozying up to
union members in Michigan. Mr. Gingrich, almost tied by Mr.
Santorum in Georgia only a few days ago, has now opened up a
double digit lead in his "home" state (Mr. Gingrich was born and
grew up in Pennsylvania, but no one is suggesting that he "must"
win the Keystone State), and Mr. Romney is poised to overtake Mr.
Santorum for second place there. Mr. Santorum had been doing
well in several Super Tuesday states before Arizona and Michigan,
but, as in the national Gallup Poll, that was then. With limited
cash resources, a hastily assembled organization in most Super
Tuesday states (and beyond), and his surge rapidly deflating, how
is Mr. Santorum going to perform now with less than a week to go?

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Copyright (c) 2012 by Barry Casselman
All rights reserved.

1 comment:

  1. Keep in mind that we don't really know who won Iowa, given the incomplete precinct count. An Iowa Santorum victory is another myth created by the political media to "gin up" interest in the race and attract readers.

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