barrycasselman: Super Tuesday Blues Ahead For Santorum?

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Super Tuesday Blues Ahead For Santorum?

The impressive showing of Mitt Romney in Arizona and
Michigan will now be followed in a few days by several
primaries on Super Tuesday. The liberal media narrative
(echoed by some conservative media pundits) before the
Michigan vote was that the former Massachusetts governor
(who had been born in Michigan) "faced defeat in his home
state" from "surging Rick Santorum." While it was no
landslide, a 32,000 vote margin for Romney (it would have
been 60,000 to 75,000 vote margin without the crossover
Democratic votes intended to sabotage Romney) was not
really a "narrow" margin. The difference between Romney
and Santorum was less than 50 votes in Iowa. THAT was
close!

The surge for Santorum lasted a few weeks, and was based on
three insignificant events, two small caucuses and a non-binding
primary in which one major candidate was not even on the
ballot. Suddenly, Mr. Santorum was leading by double digits
almost everywhere, including the respected Gallup Poll. Of
course, we had seen this "bubble" phenomenon frequently in
previous months with virtually every challenger to Mr. Romney.
Knowing Mr. Santorum's record as congressman and senator
from Pennsylvania, I immediately suggested his surge would
be brief.

Even before the Michigan vote, the air was escaping Mr.
Santorum's bubble as he was finally being vetted by the media
and his opponents. A poor debate performance and a number of
controversial statements by him were also hastening his decline,
and the last straw seemed to be his open invitation to liberal
Democrats (who would not vote for him in November) to come
into the Republican primary and sabotage Mr. Romney.

The Gallup Poll now has Mr. Romney back on top and rising
while Mr. Santorum is falling. Mr. Gingrich is not far behind, and
is also rising. Ads in Super Tuesday states where Democrats
cannot vote in Republican primaries, and where unions are not
popular, will likely show Mr. Santorum attempted cozying up to
union members in Michigan. Mr. Gingrich, almost tied by Mr.
Santorum in Georgia only a few days ago, has now opened up a
double digit lead in his "home" state (Mr. Gingrich was born and
grew up in Pennsylvania, but no one is suggesting that he "must"
win the Keystone State), and Mr. Romney is poised to overtake Mr.
Santorum for second place there. Mr. Santorum had been doing
well in several Super Tuesday states before Arizona and Michigan,
but, as in the national Gallup Poll, that was then. With limited
cash resources, a hastily assembled organization in most Super
Tuesday states (and beyond), and his surge rapidly deflating, how
is Mr. Santorum going to perform now with less than a week to go?

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Copyright (c) 2012 by Barry Casselman
All rights reserved.

1 comment:

Steve SchierFebruary 29, 2012 at 5:17 PM
Keep in mind that we don't really know who won Iowa, given the incomplete precinct count. An Iowa Santorum victory is another myth created by the political media to "gin up" interest in the race and attract readers.
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About Barry Casselman

BARRY CASSELMAN is an author, journalist and lecturer who has reported and analyzed American presidential and national politics since 1972.

He founded, edited and published his first newspaper when he was 29. He has been a contributor to many national publications, including The Weekly Standard, realclearpolitics.com, Politico, Roll Call, Washington Examiner, The American Interest, Utne Reader, Campaigns and Elections Magazine, American Experiment Quarterly, Washington Times, The Rothenberg Political Report, Business Today, Election Politics, Business Ethics Magazine, San Francisco Examiner, Washington Insider, and American Commonwealth.

His regular op ed columns and other commentary in print, and on the internet, are distributed through the Preludium News Service. His blog ‘The Prairie Editor” has an international readership and appears on his website at www.barrycasselman.com .

He was a political analyst for WCCO-AM (CBS) for several years, for KSJN-AM (Public Radio International), and for KUOM-AM (National Public Radio). He has also broadcast on RAE in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and beginning in 2000, he produced and broadcast for Voice of America. In 2006, he presented news commentary on LBC, the independent 24-hour news radio network in London, England. He also provided election night analysis in 2006 for Minnesota Public Radio. In 2008, he returned to WCCO-AM for periodic national election commentary. Beginning in 2011, he began weekly commentary on the 2012 presidential campaign on a national radio podcast program originating in Dallas, TX.

Casselman was the original host of “Talk To Your City” on the Minneapolis Television Network, and was a frequent political commentator for KTCA-TV (PBS). In 1992 and 1994, he presented election night analysis for the Conus coast-to-coast All News Channel. In 1996, he provided live coverage from the presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire for All News Channel nationwide. He has also appeared on C-SPAN. In 2008, he was interviewed by ABC-TV Evening News with Charles Gibson.

He has covered national presidential primaries, caucuses and straw polls since 1976, and attended Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1988. He has traveled throughout the United States to report on significant political events, including the national congressional debate in Williamsburg in 1996, the presidential debates, national conventions and events of the Democratic Leadership Council, Democratic National Committee, Republican National Committee, United We Stand America, Reform Party, National Governors Association, NAACP, AFL-CIO, Christian Coalition, CPAC, Green Party and the Independence Party.

In 2012, he was invited to be a civilian participant in the 58th annual seminar on national security at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, PA. Also in 2012, he was a speaker at the Jefferson Educational Society's Global Summit IV. At that event, he received the Thomas Hagen "Dignitas" Award for lifetime achievement.

From 1990-2011, he was the executive director of the non-profit International Conference Foundation, and hosted more than 500 world leaders, foreign journalists and other international visitors. At the non-partisan Foundation, he also organized four national symposia: the first on low-income housing with then-HUD Secretary Jack Kemp; the second, a highly-acclaimed conference on “Locating the New Political Center in America” with Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and leading spokespersons of the Clinton administration as well as newly-emerged independent groups; the third, a symposium on public communications with then-Governor Tom Ridge, former White House press secretary Mike McCurry, Tony Blankley and other national figures; and in 2003, a symposium on homeland security with Secretary Ridge and leading local and national experts. During this time, he also organized numerous smaller conferences, tours and events for the U.S. Information Agency and the U.S. Department of State for its International Visitor Program and its Foreign Press Center programs. In 2008, he organized a special program for international media and visitors attending the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. The Foundation also sponsored programs presenting domestic and international authors and their books.

In 2007, Mr. Casselman helped create and plan the nationally-broadcast and podcast dialogue between former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at the Cooper Union in New York City, and he continued to work on related debate and public policy discussion projects in the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Mr. Casselman has been a lecturer on public policy at Princeton University’s annual international business conferences in New York, and its regional conferences in Chicago since 2005; He also has been a guest lecturer at George Washington University, Carleton College, The Chautauqua (NY) Institution, Gannon University, Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Santa Barbara City College, University of St. Thomas, Metropolitan State University, Augsburg College, University of Minnesota, Jefferson Educational Society, and on the international voyages of the Queen Elizabeth 2, Sagafjord, Vistafjord and Royal Viking Sun. He has made presentations on journalism and the arts at Carleton College, University of Minnesota, College of St. Catherine, Minneapolis College of Art and Design, Walker Art Center, Metropolitan State University, Mercyhurst College and the Brazilian Writers Union in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

His non-fiction book North Star Rising was published in 2007 by Pogo Press, an imprint of Finney Company. In 2008, Pogo Press published Minnesota Souvenir, Casselman’s history and visitor guide for the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul. He was editor and co-author of the book Taking Turns: Political Stalemate or a New Direction in the Race for 2012, a preview of that year's national election.

He has been cited in Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics and in William Safire’s Political Dictionary. Casselman has invented a number of political words and phrases which are now in frequent usage, and listed in various online dictionaries.

He is also a widely-published American poet, short story writer and playwright whose work has been translated and published in Europe, South America and Asia. He is the author of four published books of literary prose and poetry. His work has been frequently anthologized. Two of his plays, in collaboration with composer Randall Davidson, have been performed by the Actors Theater of St. Paul, Minnesota Orchestra, St. Donat’s Ensemble of Wales, and by independent productions at the Union Depot in St. Paul and the Foss Theater at Augsburg College in Minneapolis. He has provided original texts for two award-winning experimental films, as well as texts for other independent short films and videos.

Barry Casselman was born in Erie, Pennsylvania. He received his B.A. with major honors from the University of Pennsylvania and his M.F.A. at the Writers Workshop at the University of Iowa. He has also studied in Paris, and attended the University of Madrid. He now lives in Minneapolis.

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Super Tuesday Blues Ahead For Santorum?

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