THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: The Perilous Puzzle For Democrats In 2024

It is now clear that Democrat party leaders have shut

down successfully any serious efforts to challenge

incumbent President Joe Biden for the party’s 2024 

presidential nomination — at least for now.

Mr. Biden is obviously planning to run for re-election

with a formal announcement expected any time in the

next few months.

Following better-than-expected results in the 2022 

national mid-term elections, a growing movement by

Democrats and the establishment media to dump 

Biden evaporated as the president briefly surged in 

the polls, and insurgents lacked a major party figure to 

rally around.

The prospect of former President Donald Trump being

the Republican nominee in 2024 further diminished 

the apparent need, party leaders reportedly felt, for a 

new Democrat ticket next year.

Quickly, however, the political environment shifted.

After a prolonged effort, the Republicans chose a new

speaker of the House of Representatives, ended

the Democrats control of the lower body, and soon

inaugurated investigations into the activities of the

Biden administration and Mr. Biden himself. Many

allegations had been made previously, and now these

charges will be aired publicly over coming months.

Impeachment proceedings were also begun against Mr.

Biden’s secretary of Homeland Security.

As the Mexican border crisis worsened, and inflation

continued to rise, the president’s brief surge in the polls

ended, and his unfavorables returned downward in

double digits. A controversy about dealing with Chinese

reconnaissance balloons flying in U.S. air space, and a

leaked report alleging that Mr. Biden had ordered a

strike against the Nord Sea gas pipeline, did not boost

his foreign policy standing with the general public.

Mr. Biden’s choice for vice president, Kamala Harris, has

been by virtually all accounts a bust, and she has even

more unfavorable polls than the president. He has

already indicated that she would remain on the ticket in

2024, and considering public concerns about Mr. Biden’s

age and physical condition, this further raises doubts

about a Biden-Harris re-election.

With his opponents, and now even the media, putting  a

spotlight on the president’s increasing number of gaffes

the 81 year-old chief executive seems to be getting more

publicly frail.

Polls currently indicate that despite the party establishment

rallying around the president, only about half of Democrat

voters want him to run.

On the Republican side, Mr. Trump’s initially likely

re-nomination is now in some doubt following Florida

Governor Ron DeSantis’s singular success in the mid-term

elections and his popular administration in that state.

Mr. Trump still leads in most national polls, but Mr. DeSantis

is ahead of the former president in several key state polls.

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is about to

announce her presidential candidacy, and Senators Tim

Scott of South Carolina, Marco Rubio of Florida, and Ted

Cruz of Texas, as well as former Secretary of State Mike

Pompeo are among several other well-known Republicans

thinking of running.

With no opponents in the Democrat race, and several major 

candidates in the GOP race (all of whom will be criticizing

the president), Mr. Biden’s normal domination of the news

cycle will likely have to compete with the Republican contest.

There are paths to a Biden victory in 2024, but they will

depend on several factors mostly outside his control. As 

always, the economy will be extremely important. If 

inflation is receding, the stock market is then rising, 

unemployment falling, manufacturing and production

booming, Mr. Biden will benefit. If he resolves the border

crisis, the war in Ukraine ends, conflict with China fades, 

his campaign will be greatly helped. Should the 

eventual Republican ticket fail to appeal to its own base 

or to independents, Mr. Biden’s chances will greatly 

improve, and if the economy is also going well, he would 

likely win.

But that’s a lot of ifs. Many of them will be more clear

about a year from now, and should Mr. Biden then decide

not to run, his party would have to scramble to come up

with a replacement ticket, having given the GOP a big

head start.

The alternative would be for Mr. Biden to decide to retire 

now, a lively Democratic nomination contest, and a new 

liberal-progressive presidential ticket. History shows that 

forcibly ousting an incumbent president for re-election, or 

even seriously challenging that incumbent, makes 

re-election in November unlikely.

The most promising scenario for Democrats, a Biden

retirement now, is apparently not going to happen.

But as 2022 indicated, political outcome predictions are 

very risky, especially this much before election day.

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Copyright (c) 2023 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: The Shadows of 2024

 

Although this early in the 2024 presidential race

incumbent President Joe Biden and former President

Donald Trump are the favorites for their respective

party nominations, nothing is settled.

Mr. Trump has already announced his candidacy,

and Mr. Biden appears intending to do so soon.

There is one additional announced GOP candidate,

former national security advisor John Bolton who is

considered unlikely to receive much support. No

notable Democrat has yet announced they will run.

Although he leads so far in many national polls. the

former president faces likely serious challenges in

the party primaries. Most notably, Governor Ron

DeSantis of Florida, who has not yet announced he

will run, already leads Trump in some state polls.

DeSantis, perhaps the biggest GOP winner in 2022,

appears to be the leading challenger in 2024. Former

South Carolina governor and later cabinet member,

Nikki Haley, shows some support in the early polls,

and is considering making the race. The conservative

party also has an impressive “bench” of potential

other candidates, including Governor Kristi Noem of

South Dakota, Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas,

Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri, Senator Marco

Rubio of Florida, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina,

Mike Pompeo, and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.

Democrats do not seem to have as impressive a

“bench,” but they do have a number of rising stars

who could run for president in 2024. Two names

frequently cited are Secretary of Transportation

Pete Buttigieg and California Governor Gavin

Newsom. Buttigieg, not yet a candidate, in fact led

Biden in a recent New Hampshire poll. Less

nationally well-known are Secretary and Commerce

and former Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo;

new Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro; and new

Maryland Governor Wes Moore.. Raimondo was

a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford University with a law

degree from Yale and a successful businesswoman

before entering politics. Shapiro previously was state

attorney general, senior congressional staffer and

state legislator — and, like Raimondo, has a reputation

for moderate progressive politics. Moore, the first black

Maryland governor, was also a Rhodes scholar. An

army veteran and former investment banker, he was 

also a TV producer.

Some Democrats who ran in 2020 (and lost to Biden) 

could also run, but for Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth

Warren age would be an issue in 2024.

For now, however, major Democrats are holding back

in deference to their sitting president. It is no secret

that many Democrats hope he retires, and the brief

surge he enjoyed in the polls after the 2022 midterms

has already dissipated following the revelation of 

classified documents he took home when he was vice 

president. His age and physical condition are likely to

become an issue if he runs for a second term.

For now, the 2024 presidential race, less than two 

years away, remains a match in the shadows. If

there is no incumbent running, there will likely be

many more candidates in both parties than named

above — just as there was in recent cycles,

Beginning with President Biden’s decision of whether

or not to run, the current tentative candidacy shadows 

will disappear, and be replaced with the names and 

faces in what promises to be an epic political contest.

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Copyright (c) 2023 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: A New House Speaker

 

The protracted balloting to choose a new speaker

of the House of Representatives, anticipated by

The Prairie Editor on this website in late December, 

has now been resolved after more than three days, 

and considerable debate with the election of  Rep. 

Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) to the key post.

Mr. McCarthy had been selected as the new

Republican majority’s choice in a caucus vote by

a wide margin in December, but because the GOP 

has only a narrow 222 to 212 lead in the full body, 

it was possible for a small group within the majority

caucus to prevent Mr. McCarthy from receiving

the 218 votes necessary to be elected.

Before the January 3 vote, a group of five GOP 

members expressed their unhappiness with the 

rules that had governed the House under 

Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and contended 

that Mr. McCarthy as speaker was likely to

perpetuate them. They said they would not vote

for him. Another two dozen GOP members indicated 

they might also vote for someone else.

In spite of some concessions by Mr. McCarthy to 

this unhappy bloc, he received only 202 votes on

the first ballot, 16 votes short of the necessary

majority. Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi’s

successor, received the vote of every member of

his caucus, 212, and he continued to receive that

number of votes in all the remaining 14 ballots.

Then began a series of negotiations which eventually

brought 14 of the dissidents to vote for McCarthy, 

while the five hardliners agreed to vote “present,”

thus enabling Kevin McCarthy to be elected speaker.

Reactions to the three-day spectacle and its

conclusion have been predictably partisan. The

Democrats, now in the minority, boasted of their

unity in the voting — despite having their own

factions, including the five members of the leftist 

group known as “The Squad.” Democratic leaders

during the balloting understandably used the occasion

to repeat the liberal mantras of their policy issues.

Some Republicans, after the balloting, reflected some

uncertainty, having put Mr. McCarthy in the

speakership, how the GOP agenda would be able to

proceed, especially with the return to the old rule

of one member being able to challenge the 

speaker’s tenure.

This uncertainty was expressed by some in the GOP

establishment, many of whom felt the public display

of discord within their caucus weakened their voter

support. This view was also echoed by the Democrats

and the establishment media which routinely has

supported President Biden and his very liberal

agenda.

Another view, however, suggests that the Republican

House majority, albeit small, will now be able to be 

more effective as a check on the Biden administration, 

the Democrat Senate majority, and their efforts to 

promote and enact legislation and policies which 

conservatives oppose.

The reality is that, regardless of any personal motives,

the GOP dissidents have brought back a much more

transparent House of Representatives. In enforcing

Democratic “unity,” former Speaker Pelosi had

concentrated power in her office and her leadership

coterie. Debate on the floor and the ability to offer

amendments to legislation was prohibited. The right

to hold the speaker accountable was effectively

eliminated; the ability of the opposition to participate

in House business was curtailed. Further, Speaker

Pelosi had effectively sealed off the House from

public access under the rubric of security concerns.

Speaker McCarthy will inevitably face disagreements

within his caucus, but he has already given several

of those who are members of the more conservative

Freedom Caucus and others who initially voted against 

him more prominent  committee roles, thus significantly 

reducing incentives for caucus conflict in pursuing their

conservative agenda.

The bottom line appears to be that the Republican

House will more likely be able to be a consistently

conservative opposition as the new political cycle 

leading to the presidential election in 2024 now begins 

in earnest.

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Copyright (c) 2023 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Full House Or Empty House?

The threat to oppose Republican Congressman Kevin

McCarthy’s bid to become the new speaker of the U.S.

House on January 3, 2023 has created the unusual

possibility that the new members of the 118th Congress

will not be sworn in just after noon on that date — and

therefore no U.S. House of Representatives  will exist 

until that election is resolved.

The U.S. constitution states that the terms of the 

members of the previous Congress automatically end

at noon on January 3. The clerk of the House at that

time convenes the new session, a prayer is said,

followed by the pledge of allegiance. The clerk then

conducts the election of the new speaker. When that

speaker is elected, he or she then swears in all the

members.

Since 1924, the election of the new speaker has taken

only one ballot, and the technical circumstance of "no

existing" House of Representatives has only lasted a

few minutes.

In order to be elected speaker, a member must receive

a majority of those present. The U.S. House currently

has 435 members, so a majority is 218. One newly

elected Democratic member has passed away, but the

majority is still 218.

At least five Republicans have indicated they will not

honor the previously taken vote which selected Kevin

McCarthy as speaker-designate by a vote of 188 to 31.

The man who lost that vote, Andy Biggs, has decided to

run against McCarthy on January 3, and if the five (or

more) fellow Republicans vote for Biggs, McCarthy will

be one vote (or more) short of the required 218. (There

are 222 Republicans elected to the new House.)

The Democrats will nominate Hakeem Jeffers for

speaker, but he would only have 212 if his entire

caucus votes for him. The election will then go to a

second ballot, and if McCarthy fails to receive 218

votes on that ballot, there will be a third ballot, and

so on until someone (technically not necessarily

an elected member) does obtain a majority.

Only once in the past 150 years has there been more

than one ballot for speaker. In 1923, it took nine ballots

for Republican Frederick Gillett to win. But in 1855, it

took 133 ballots and two months to elect Nathaniel

Banks as speaker.

In addition to opposition to McCarthy based on his

record as minority leader, his opponents have called

for a change of House rules which McCarthy has so

far refuse to say he would do. McCarthy has received

praise for his recruitment of Republican members in

2022, and for the success of his campaign fundraising.

He has been endorsed by virtually all Republican

leaders.

At this writing, neither side has budged. An agreement

could made before January 3, but unless that happens,

there will be a lot of suspense in the House chamber

on that date at the noon hour.

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Copyright (c) 2022 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.