THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Is There A Trend Yet?

Any pundit is eager to be able  to alert his or her readers to news
of an emerging political trend, especially if the trend is credibly
to a big electoral wave, red or blue, The temptation is considerable
to be the first to herald a sensational outcome at the polls .

Most cycles the signs come relatively early. This was true in he
mid-term elections of 2010 and 2014 when voter dissatisfaction
with Obama administration policies (but not with Mr. Obama
personally) foreshadowed Republican gains. Of course, many in
the media turned their eyes from the voter signals --- and saw
only that the president was still relatively popular. In 2016, with
no incumbent in the presidential contest, the mis-reading by many
observers was epic and historic.

Now we are less than six months from the 2018 mid-terms, the
primary season is underway, and the irresistible search for
political omens is on.

So far, however, the omens appear to be mixed and contradictory.
Democrats have done well in most special elections, but have
actually won few of them, Their general opposition to the
Trump presidency does give them energy and motivation to go
to the polls. But Republicans seem to be sticking with their
support of the president, and the early primaries can be seen
to foretell strong conservative turnout in November as well.

The Democrats have a clear advantage to make big gains in the
U.S. house --- as the Republicans have a big advantage in expand
their now slim control of the U.S. senate. These advantages have
not so far been diminished by the early primary voting.

In  California, liberal prospects are complicated by state law
which requires the two top votegetters in a primary, regardless
of party, to be on the November ballot. This has put at risk
several likely Democratic pick-ups in Congress there because so
many Democrats are running in some primaries that it is quite
possible that only Republicans will be on the ballot in those
races on election day. The reverse is true in the race for
California governor in which there might only be two Democrats
on the ballot --- thus denying conservatives top-of-the-ticket
motivation for their voters. This would also likely dampen GOP
turnout overall --- a serious handicap to winning down-ballot
races.

Primaries in Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia heartened
Republicans generally as voters nominated strong U.S. senate
challengers, but the Democrats still have the advantage of
incumbency in those states.

Minnesota’s primary is not until August, but the state has
non-binding endorsing conventions before that, and this
process has muddied several races. The state has the unique
distinction nationally of having two U.S. senate seats on the
ballot in 2018 (one of which is competitive), four very close
U.S. house races (half the state’s entire delegation), and an
open contest for governor that could resound nationally.

Important state primaries are ahead. Montana, Wisconsin
and Michigan have key GOP senate primaries. A gubernatorial
controversy in Missouri still affects that potential GOP senate
pick-up opportunity.

President Trump looms over the 2018 election in spite of not
being on the ballot The North Korean crisis in on-again then
off-again, the Middle East is in perpetual motion and new
global trade agreements are yet unfinished.

The Democrats continue to be pulled to the left by grass
roots forces. Four members of the socialist party in
Pennsylvania, running as Democrats, just won state house
primaries --- and are likely to win in November. That has
excited the more radical wing of the party, but has not
likely helped more moderate Democrats running in other
Pennsylvania races.

Far right Republican candidates in Arizona, Wisconsin
and other states present their party with a similar
problem.

The vital difference, bottom line, can be put to the relative
quality of the candidates in competitive races this year.
The hype so far predicting a political wave, either blue or
red, may turn out to be just political smoke in the end.
The political party which does best might be the party
which recruited and nominated the better candidates.

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Copyright (c) 2018 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: A Trump Tide?

In only a matter of a few days, what was heralded as a coming
Republican electoral nightmare (a/k/a a 2018 blue tide) has
been awakened into another and contrary reality, a dramatic
political reversal on the horizon in the form of an incoming
Trump tide.

With unemployment falling to recent historic lows (especially
among hardest hit communities of blacks and Hispanics), a
rising stock market, early positive effects from the 2017 tax
reform legislation, and a remarkable series of potential
triumphs in foreign policy, President Donald Trump is leading
his party back from the edge of mid-term election disaster as
he takes command of the domestic and international stage.

While most of the nation slept on Wednesday night, the
president and first lady, and the vice president, welcomed
home from North Korea Secretary of State Pompeo and three
freed Americans from North Korean imprisonment. Thursday
morning, the world awakened to a remarkable diplomatic U.S.
triumph as the president also announced that he would meet
with the North Korean leader in Singapore in June.

In contrast with the two presidents who preceded him, Mr.
Trump did not declare “Mission Accomplished!” (George W.
Bush), nor did he fail to bring the Korean dictator to the
bargaining table (Barack Obama). Instead, the president
cautioned that the freed U.S. prisoners and the date and place
of the summit were only a beginning.

A day before, in several key primaries, Republican voters
avoided past political mistakes, and nominated their strongest
candidates in three key 2018 U.S. senate races against
vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Conservative turnout was
strong in spite of this cycle not holding a presidential election.
But again, no final result was achieved --- November is five
months away.

Coming up, the president will attend the formal opening of
his historic action of moving the U.S. embassy in Israel to
Jerusalem --- something promised by many U.S. presidents,
both Democratic and Republican, but not done.

At the same time, the president ended a unpopular Iran deal
that wasn’t working --- in spite of opposition from many
European allies who who were placing their economic
interests above Middle East security. Once more, the aftermath
of this strategic move has not yet played out, but it is now
clear that U.S. passivity in the world is over.

Finally, in spite of almost universal criticism of threatened
U.S tariffs in readjusting global trade agreements, President
Trump’s initiatives are beginning to obtain concessions
and welcome changes from trading partners. Again,
negotiations are still underway, and it’s too early to declare
victories.

For months, I have been cautioning that the optimistic liberal
narratives of a blue wave that would lead to a Democratic
takeover of the U.S. house and widespread other victories for
the liberal party were premature. Not necessarily wrong, but
premature.

Now I caution Republicans and conservatives that current
good news for their party and their president does not mean
there will be a certain red wave in November.

Many days and many events are yet to take place before
Americans cast their votes this year. Dreams, media fantasies,
wishful thinking, polls, and nightmares do not make an election.

Voters do.

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Copyright (c) 2018 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: A Very High Stakes Governor's Race

The third and final act of the Minnesota 2018 election grand
opera is the race for governor. National party strategists and
pundits will be paying much more attention to Acts I and II,
i.e., the close races for U.S. house and senate that are making
this state so important to whom will control Congress in the
next term, but the contest that will likely have the most
impact will be the one that will choose the next state chief
executive.

Both major parties face possible primary contests for their
gubernatorial nomination. Democratic (DFL) frontrunner,
retiring Congressman Tim Walz, faces two major challengers
in retiring State Auditor Rebecca Otto and Erin Murphy, a
state representative. The affable Mr. Walz is hoping for party
endorsement at the June state DFL convention, but might have
to face a competitive August primary. On the GOP side, former
Governor Tim Pawlenty entered the race only a month ago, but
has already raised far more campaign funds than his only
remaining major opponent, 2014 gubernatorial nominee Jeff
Johnson. Johnson has worked to gain support among party
convention delegates for months, and wins straw polls at the
district level, but these activists  represent less than 1% of the
state Republican electorate. Johnson failed to win this race four
years ago, but Pawlenty has won it twice, albeit by only a
plurality with a major third party candidates on both ballots.

With his early start, Johnson could be endorsed at the state
GOP convention, but recent past DFL and GOP endorsees
have subsequently lost their party nomination in the
statewide primary.

Republicans control both the house and senate in the state
legislature now, and are expected to keep control for the next
session. But their margin in the senate is only one seat (no state
senate seats are up for election this year). Their margin in the
state house is comfortable, but not necessarily safe should
there be a DFL wave this cycle.

There could also be a GOP wave in Minnesota in 2018.

Retiring DFL Governor Mark Dayton has raised state taxes
until very recently. Failures in state medical insurance and
auto license systems have plagued his administration. His
initial popularity has declined. As his would-be successor,
Tim Walz has to decide whether he will offer more of the same
to voters, or take his party in a new direction. As is happening
nationally, Bernie Sanders DFLers, personified by Minneapolis
Congressman Keith Ellison (one of the few in Congress who
supported the Sanders presidential bid), are lobbying at the
grass roots level to move the DFL even further to the left. But
much of Walz support comes from those who want to expand
the DFL base into suburban and rural Minnesota where the
party has recently been weak, and leftist notions are not
popular.

Tim Pawlenty has spent the years since he left politics (after his
unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2012) as a highly paid
executive for a nationao financial services industry advocacy
group. His opponents are predictably trying to paint him as a DC
lobbyist. His defenders reply that this industry has a reported
200,000 workers throughout Minnesota --- and that this is a vital
industry in the economy. During the 2016 presidential campaign,
he denounced candidate Donald Trump after a controversial
video was a released. Pawlenty says he did this as the father of
two daughters, and who felt Trump’s remarks on the video were
extremely inappropriate, but that he voted for Trump and now
agrees with many of his policies. Do Trump supporters outstate
want an early Trump supporter or a later Trump supporter who
is much more likely to win? The answer to that question will be
key. Pawlenty’s first two terms had some mixed results. He will
now have to make the case that his third term will be better, A
veteran of the state legislature (he was once house majority
leader). Pawlenty argues he is a forward-thinking pragmatist
who knows how to get things done. He has come out swinging
against the failures of the Dayton administration.

Recent reports by state conservative think tanks allege that DFL
tax and education policies are driving families and businesses
out of the state. Public employee unions are also a powerful
part of the Minnesota DFL, and (as in neighboring Wisconsin)
this could be a major issue in the governor’s race. Mining and
environmental issues have helped turn northeastern Minnesota
(especially the mineral-rich area called The Range) from a past
reliably large DFL majority to giving GOP candidate Trump a
16-point margin in 2016.

The DFL still has large majorities in the state’s two largest cities
of St. Paul and Minneapolis. With labor union money and an
experienced GOTV organization, plus the natural energy from
liberal antipathy to Donald Trump, the Democrats in Minnesota
remain a formidable force, but Republicans now have a  strong
voter ID and GOTV effort. So many close races this year gives
them an energy of their own

Unemployment is currently low in the state, and other economic
conditions here, as will be true in the rest of the nation, will play
an important role in the 2018 election, especially in the race for
governor, because the two major Minnesota political parties have
such different visions of how the state should be run.

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Copyright (c) 2018 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

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THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: A Minnesota Political Opera

Like a classical grand opera, the 2018 elections in Minnesota
have three acts.

Act I --- the competitive U.S. house races were recently surveyed
on these pages. It is time to take an updated look at Act II --- the
competitive U.S. senate race.

There are actually two U.S. senate races in this state this cycle
because Al Franken unexpectedly resigned last year. The
Minnesota governor then appointed his lt. governor, Tina Smith,
to fill the seat until this November when a special election would
be held Franken would have run for re-election in 2020).

Senior Senator Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat (DFL), is normally up
for re-election in 2018. This would be her third term. As the most
popular DFL figure in the state, she is not expected to have a
serious contest.

But, as it appears now, Tina Smith is in for a competitive contest
from State Senator Karin Housely, a Republican. The question is,
with two generally unknown statewide candidates, just how
competitive will this race be?

Senator Smith has considerable experience behind-the-scenes in
local and state politics. She not only has been a successful
campaign manager, she has served as chief of staff to a former
Minneapolis mayor and to the current governor, Mark Dayton.
Her election at lt. governor in 2014 was as part of the DFL ticket
overshadowed by Dayton. Like many political staff members,
she works easily with the boss, and fellow staff, but does not
necessarily have an outgoing style of relating to voters. As an
appointee only months before the special election, she needs to
campaign heavily to become better known. Her dilemma is that
she also must appear to be working hard in her new job, including
casting votes that will keep her in Washington, DC most of the
spring and summer. (In 1978, a popular, but appointed, Minnesota
senator missed many votes in order to campaign, and it led to his
surprise defeat at the polls that year.)

If Tina Smith can be characterized as more private and a bit shy,
her likely Republican opponent, Karin Housely, could be described
as ebullient and outgoing. With a background in business and
experience in the state senate, she has local credentials, but a small
resume for national politics. When she announced her candidacy, it
was greeted by some skepticism among several GOP insiders.
Her initial efforts, however, including her recent legislative
efforts on behalf of the state’s elderly, has improved hopes of many
conservatives --- although Senator Smith remains, for now, a slight
favorite in November.

Other factors could affect the outcome of this race, especially if the
final vote is close. The DFL contest just added a challenger, a former
Republican who is very critical of President Trump. But neither he
nor any GOP challenger to Senator Housely is likely to win an
endorsement in June nor a nomination in August. A strong
independent candidate on the left or the right, on the other hand,
could be a factor in November if the race is tight.

The economy and President Trump’s’s popularity in late October
could be bigger factors, as could the relative merits of the two
campaign organizations and their fundraising. Senator Smith has,
so far, raised more money.

With so much at stake for the Trump administration agenda and
the Democratic Party’s hopes for 2020, there will be considerable
outside financial input from both national party campaigns and
national conservative and liberal PACs.

Finally. the Minnesota voters’ historic tendency for ticket-splitting
could be crucial --- with two senate seats up this cycle.

Act II of this electoral Minnesota opera, just as Act I, will also
draw plenty of national media attention for its numerous
possible pick-ups and national impact. But Act III --- a critical
race for governor --- could prove to be the state’s most
significant race of all. More about that soon.

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Copyright (c) 2018 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.                                                                                                                                                                     

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: A British Trump --- 175 Years Ago!

About 175 years ago, a political figure emerged in Great Britain who, in
many ways, could be uncannily compared to Donald Trump.

When it comes to earlier British political leaders, most Americans only
know a few names such as Benjamin Disraeli, William Gladstone and
Winston Churchill. A few more know the names of William Pitt and
Lloyd George. But there were many more distinguished leaders largely
unknown on this side of the Pond, including reformer and friend of
Abraham Lincoln, John Bright. (Bright did not become prime minister,
but had a huge impact on the mid-19th century United Kingdom.)

There was also an enormously significant leader who served for many
years as foreign minister and prime minister , and who had much to do
with Great Britain becoming  the world power after the defeat of
Napoleon.

His name was Henry John Temple, the 3rd Viscount of Palmerston,
but he is remembered in history simply as Lord Palmerston. He lived
from 1784 to 1865. His public life lasted from 1807 until he died, and
from the 1830s on he was the principal foreign policy influence on his
nation.

His policy might be summed up as "make Britain great again!”
Partly as a result of his leadership, his small island nation became the
most significant sea power in the world, and its colonial empire the
largest in the world.

He was not universally popular, and had many political critics and
enemies. Although born into the British aristocracy, he disrupted the
British establishment of his time, and was not even a favorite of
Queen Victoria, the British monarch virtually all of the time he was
in power.

Although much of his foreign policy seemed belligerent and
controversial, he masterfully controlled British public opinion by
stimulating British nationalism.

He attended the University of Edinburgh (the Wharton School of
that time) where he studied under influential Scottish economist
Dugald Stewart, who wrote and lectured about Adam Smith (the
Milton Friedman of that time).

His characteristic strategies were brinkmanship and bluff, and he
frequently threatened war to achieve his ends. He was often
tendentiously outspoken.

Unlike John Bright, he did not support the North in the U.S. Civil
War, but Britain did not recognize the Confederacy in spite of
there being so many British sympathizers with the South.

The era which followed his death produced two great prime
ministers, Gladstone (who Palmerston brought into politics) and
Disraeli, the leader of the opposition party.  A peak in the power
and dimensions of the British empire was realized after
Palmerston left the political stage, but he had been significantly
responsible for its rise.

Perhaps what Lord Palmerston is most remembered for today is
not his foreign policy (nor for his octogenarian philandering,) but
for his masterful management of the British media --- which in
those days meant the newspapers. Although most Victorian
prime ministers seemed to ignore the press, Palmerston was the
first to recognize the value of the press in influencing public
opinion.

Possibly it is the latter trait which most closely compares Lord
Palmerston to Donald Trump, the modern U.S. political master
manipulator of the media --- although, in Trump’s case (and in
contrast to Palmerston), most of the media are against him.

At about the same time, but slightly later, the first U.S.. president
to effectively use the media, Abraham Lincoln, appeared, but he
also took advantage of the then new invention of the telegraph, as
later, Franklin Roosevelt used the then new invention of radio, and
John Kennedy used television. Donald Trump, of course, uses the
internet and Twitter.

But it was an anti-establishment British aristocrat, Lord
Palmerston, who almost 200 years ago first disrupted public
opinion with controversy and bold headlines.

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Copyright (c) 2018 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: A French Connection And Koreas Connecting

In the Trump presidency, it appears that foreign policy, as in its
domestic policy, is more about actions than words.

President Trump seemed to get off to a bad beginning in his
relations with many allied leaders, and particularly with the
top figures in the United Kingdom, France and Germany --- as
well as with the hostile leader of North Korea. A certain level of
unprecedented mutual name-calling ensued, and the international
and domestic establishment media were lurid and critical.

Although little is now settled, potentially significant actual
diplomatic movement is underway.

President Emmanuel Macron of France has policy differences
with Mr. Trump, but as a fellow political outsider and
businessman, he seems to have understood the U.S. leader better
and more quickly than his European colleagues. His just-concluded
U.S. visit was a clear triumph for both leaders --- although it is
important to note that some of their differences remain.

The dictator of North Korea has apparently changed diplomatic
directions, including moving to end long-standing hostilities with
neighbor South Korea, and expressing a willingness to end nuclear
weapon ambitions. Even Mr. Trump’s critics are now crediting
his blunt approach to contributing to this.  President Trump rightly
cautions about making any conclusions about this turn of events,
but there is not a little optimism now that significant progress
can be made.

Much has been made about the conflicts between President
Trump and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In her current
U.S. visit, however, both leaders seem to fully understand that
some diplomatic defrosting is now in order. We might expect a
similar environment when the U.S. president soon visits the
United Kingdom.

Other international “hotspots” remain, including the Middle
East, radical regimes in Venezuela and Cuba, more problems
in South America, Russia, and of course, China. But a new
stage in the always dynamic world order seems to have been
reached. Much danger and potential violence are still present,
and will likely continue into the foreseeable future, but the
vacuum created by almost decade of  U.S. diplomatic passivity
has now been replaced with a more constructive and muscular
U.S. engagement.

The key notion, at this point is connection. In order to achieve
agreements, conflicting parties first must find a common
language of their real interests. That is what appears to be
happening now.

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Copyright (c) 2018 by Barry Casseman. All rights reserved.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: The Minnesota Puzzle

As the 2018 national mid-term election head into its formative
primary season, the sheer range and variety of competitive
races in Minnesota signal this state will be one of the
most-watched and most-discussed political battlegrounds
this cycle in the nation.

Other states, of course, have individual bellwether and colorful
contests, but Minnesota has, as they say, the whole package ---
several close congressional races, an unexpectedly unpredictable
U.S. senate race, and an all-important contest for governor.

In spite of narratives recently that have presumed “waves” for
both parties in the wake of President Trump’s first two years
in office, the electorate this year, especially that large chunk of
voters who decide their votes late in the campaign season, is
seemingly very volatile and unsettled.

Examining the fascinating and large number of competitive
Minnesota U.S. house races indicates how much results in
November remain a puzzle and undecided.

Starting at the Canadian border, Minnesota has two
congressional districts. the 7th on the northwest and the 8th
on the northeast. Although MN-7 is very conservative and
voted heavily for Donald Trump in 2016, the house seat, held by
a Democrat (in this state called the Democratic-Farmer-Labor
Party or DFL) Collin Peterson. Republicans repeatedly fail to
come up with a serious opponent to Peterson who is one of
the most conservative Democrats in Congress (and one of the
very few pro-lifers in his party holding office). But Minnesota
is likely to lose one of its eight house seats after the 2020
census, and MN-7 and MN-8 are likely in some form to be
combined. Peterson probably will retire then.

The 8th district, which includes the Range, has historically
provided the DFL with large margins in statewide races.
DFL incumbent Congressman Rick Nolan, after two close
re-elections, has retired. In 2016, this district was won by
Donald Trump by 16 points. (Mr. Trump shocked political
observers by almost carrying the state.) This year, the GOP
has an energetic likely nominee, Pete Stauber, while the
DFL failed to endorse a candidate and will face a bitter
August primary. Environmental and mining issues also
favor the Republican here, and MN-8 is probably the most
promising GOP house seat pick-up in the nation.

Conservatives have high hopes to pickup another DFL seat
on the state’s southern border. The incumbent DFLer in
MN-1 has retired to run for governor. The GOP has
endorsed early frontrunner Jim Hagedorn (son of a former
congressman here), but State Senator Carla Nelson (whose
base is in the district’s largest city Rochester) has said she
will go to the August primary. The endorsement helps
Hagedorn, as does the support of prominent GOP leaders,
but he now will have to spend critical resources in the
primary. The DFL-endorsee Dan Feehan will not have this
problem --- his opponents have withdrawn. Feehan also
appears to be the strongest candidate his party could put
up. The district still is conservative, but until the primary
is settled, this race goes from “Lean Republican” to
“Toss-Up.”

DFLers have high hopes of picking up the seat now held by
GOP incumbent Congressman Jason Lewis in MN-2. A
former talk show host, Lewis barely won his first term in
2016 against DFLer Angie Craig. She will be his opponent
again in 2018. Lewis impressed most Republicans in his
first term, but the district is even divided between the two
major parties, and this race is a “Toss-Up.”

Just as DFLer Collin Peterson won re-election in a district
carried heavily by Donald Trump, 3rd District GOP
Congressman Erik Paulsen easily defeated his DFL
opponent in a district carried strongly by Hillary Clinton.
With a self-funding and personable (but first-time) candidate,
Dean Phillips, the DFL would like to pick up this suburban
Minneapolis seat, but Peterson is a hard-working incumbent
who fits the district and will be hard to beat. Still “Lean
Republican.”

Five of Minnesota’s eight U.S. house seats are technically in
play, and three now could actually change hands. Three other
seats are considered no-contest. GOP Congressman Tom
Emmer in MN-6, DFL Congresswoman Betty McCollum in
MN-4, and DFL Congressman Keith Ellison in MN-5, are each
expected to win re-election by large margins.

Congressman Ellison, however, is also the controversial and
openly radical vice chairman of the national Democratic Party.
Unpopular with conservatives in outstate Minnesota, he could
become a secondary issue in some of the 2018 statewide races,
including the special U.S. senate election caused by the
resignation of Al Franken last year.

Those other races, the U.S. senate race and the governor’s race,
will have to wait for another column, but like the competitive
U.S. house races discussed above, they are puzzling --- and
with uncertain outcomes.

_________________________________________________________
Copyright (c) 2018 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.