THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Forward

The Democratic Party's slogan for the 2012 elections now ironically becomes
the operating word for the immediate future of the national Republican
Party.

The presidential election result came as a surprise to many observers (myself
included), Republican voters and conservative political activists. There will
now be an extended post-mortem by the political pathologists on all sides, and
not a few recriminations, might-have-beens, and I-told-you-sos by self-styled
conservative theoreticians. Democrats, being Democrats, will have a difficult
time not to rub it in.

Since I do not belong to any political party, and I did not attend medical school
(as my father did), I am not going to attempt to dissect what happened yesterday.
(At least not here and now.)

But I am going to talk about what happens next for the Republican Party,
the Democratic Party and the nation.

Yesterday, the incumbent president of the United States won a clear but very
narrow re-election. The voting was notably diminished from 2008 both in the
popular vote and in the margin of the electoral vote.

At the same time, the Democrats fared remarkably well in the U.S. senate
races, picking up a net of two seats. They now control the U.S. senate 55-45.

Simultaneously, the Republicans kept clear control of the U.S. House, losing
only a relative few seats in an election following their winning 60-plus seats
from the Democrats only two years before.

Finally, the Republicans had a gain of one governorship even though they
already controlled many more than their opposition party. There are now 30
GOP governors.

The fundamental position of the Republican brand at the congressional and
state level was essentially not affected by the 2012 election. Voters have
indicated that they want conservative government and representation close
to home. (There were exceptions to this, such as in Minnesota.) A look at the
map reveals that the GOP is a more national party, albeit a rural and suburban
party outside the South. The Democrats are now primarily an urban party.

Going forward, the prospects for the two parties are quite different. The
national governing party, the Democrats, and their president face formidable
problems at home and abroad. They will now be expected to deliver
practical solutions to those problems and quickly. The national opposition
party, the Republicans, will need to come up with alternatives of their own,
proposed through the U.S. house of representatives and by GOP leaders,
that are credible and acceptable to a majority of the nation.

In only two years, a mid-term election will take place, and it will be
primarily a plebiscite on the Obama administration's second term. The last
such mid-term in 2010 was a disaster for the Democrats. It certainly won't be
George W. Bush's fault this time.

Obamacare now obviously won't be repealed. It's details, regulations and
consequences will now collide with the health care market and the public
pocketbook. These prospects, I believe, are grim, notwithstanding any of the
genuine reforms Obamacare also brings.

The relationship of the United States to the rest of the world, including our
allies, our foes, and the many nations which are neither, is at a critical
moment. A worldwide economic downturn affects all, including China
which has been providing us with bail money. Violence and repression
is increasing across the globe. Great natural disasters occur with an
unpredictable frequency.

In 2014, similar to 2012, many more Democratic than Republican U.S.
senate seats are up for election.  Some incumbents from both parties will
retire. (Six each from the two parties are from 70 to 90 years old.) The 13
Republican seats, however, are in super-solid GOP state (except for a very
popular incumbent in Maine), and unless this party repeats its inexcusable
past mistake of nominating weirdo candidates, they are unlikely to lose any
of these. (That does not mean, as we learned in 2012 that they won't!) The
Democrats, on the other hand, have 19 incumbent seats, and at least 10 of
them, including probable retirements, are potentially vulnerable. This time
there will not be a presidential election to cover for them; in fact, the
president (as he was in 2010) could be their main problem.

The other side of the coin is the possibility that Barack Obama will finally
point himself to the political center, genuinely compromise with the
Republicans in the U.S. house, and roll up his sleeves to resolve our
economic difficulties. He has not done this in the past, but the enormity
of our economic problems could move him to do this. If he does not, it's
stalemate until 2014. The victories of today, as those in 2008, could quickly
turn into political nightmares.

We will now see who, if anyone, goes forward, and not in reverse.

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Copyright (c) 2012 by Barry Casselman.     All rights reserved.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Special Subscriber Bulletins On Election Day

The Prairie Editor has already sent out a SPECIAL SUBSCRIBER BULLETIN
(Update #1) to all subscribers at their e-mail addresses. Subscribers should
check their e-mail for further updates throughout the afternoon and evening.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: The Polling Profession Is On Trial

We are now about 48 hours away from learning the first results of the
2012 national election campaign. Most polls show the election to be close.
Most polls, but not all, are based on a larger turnout of Democrats.
Those polls mostly show the presidential race tied, and Democrats
winning most of the admittedly close U.S. senate races. Virtually all polls
show the Republicans retaining control of he U.S. house by a comfortable
margin.

If indeed the intensity is on the Democratic side, and more Democrats turn
out on Tuesday (as they did in 2008), then Barak Obama will be re-elected
and the Democrats will continue to control the U.S. senate.

If, on the other hand, the greater intensity is on the Republican side (as
virtually all indicators say it is), then the presidential result could be quite
different, and the GOP might take control of the senate.

There have not ever been as many polls in a national election as this cycle,
and not ever before has the media taken so many questionable polls
seriously. Except for Gallup and Rasmussen, there are serious questions
about the assumptions and weighting of most polls this cycle, and thus
the whole profession of political polling is on trial.

The late expansion of the number of battleground states is an ominous for
the incumbent president. Mr. Obama cannot afford to lose even one of them,
including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Even states now considered safe for one candidate or another could
provide surprising results on Tuesday.

Of course, there are much more serious matters than polling at stake in
2012, and the nation's voters, one by one, will make a critical judgment
on Tuesday about their own future and the future of the republic.

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Copyright (c) 2012 by Barry Casselman.  All rights reserved.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Days of Nervous Suspense

With five calendar days to go before election day, but only three effective
days to go, most Americans who care about who the next president
of the United States will be are probably feeling some nervousness.
The political trend has been going to Mitt Romney for almost a month
(since the first TV debate), and most polls indicate momentum to the
Republican nominee, but Barack Obama is the incumbent who won a
decisive victory in 2008 over Republican John McCain, and retains some
personal popularity. No one knows the outcome with certainty.

In politics, of course, that is known when the votes are counted, and
only very rarely (as in 2000) is certainty delayed once the counting takes
place.

Some observers say the election remains close, in fact, too close to call.   
Others see the closeness reported in many polls to be inaccurate and
deceptive. This debate will not last much longer. We will soon enough have
real votes, real results and real winners.

The 2012 cycle of the presidential election has fixated on a small number
of so-called ‘battleground” states where the contest between Mr Romney
and Mr. Obama was judged to be genuinely competitive. This group of
states was numbered varyingly from five to eight states, but now, at the
very end of the campaign, the number is twelve states. All of the additional
states are ones that Mr. Obama won in 2008, so it is fair to say that his
campaign is on the defensive. That does not mean  at all that he can’t or
won’t win, but it cannot be perceived as a “good” sign.

At a certain  point, and we are probably already there, it is probably better
for voters to go to a football game, eat out at a restaurant, see a movie or
watch some DVDs, take some long walks, or best yet, play with their children.
There will almost certainly be a scandal or two alleged over the next three
days, and/or some other sensational story put out to grab headlines and
trying to harm a campaign, but voters would probably be wise to ignore
these phenomena, and go about their electoral business as they intended.
The simple, common sense question is: Why, if a disclosure were important,
was it put forward at the last moment?

Since the announcements of the candidates, the debates, primaries and
caucuses, the endless and often tedious media coverage, it has been a very
long campaign, A great deal has been said, argued and contended. Voters easily
have more than enough information to mark their ballot. Let’s now see what
millions of adult Americans have decided,

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Copyright (c) 2012 by Barry Casselman.  All rights reserved.

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THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Coming To A Conclusion

The national elections of 2012 are approaching their final campaign days.
Most American voters have made up their minds. In these final hours,
particularly in the presidential race, a great deal of propaganda and
misinformation often appears to affect undecided and wavering voters.
The presidential debates are finished. Political advertisements have filled
the airwaves in a few selected "battleground" states. In the majority of
states, those with a predictable inclination to vote Republican or Democratic,
there are almost no advertisements, few rallies, and almost no personal
appearances of the presidential and vice presidential candidates. In the final
days of this year's campaign, the candidates will appear in only a a handful
of states.

There are important races for U.S. house and U.S. senate throughout the
nation as well. After the ten-year redistricting, there are some particularly
torrid U.S. house races, sometimes pitting two incumbents against each other.
Control of the U.S house does not seem to be at stake this cycle (Republicans
seem likely to maintain control), but control of the U.S senate is undecided,
even this close to election day. It is also not clear if 2012, as it was in 2006,
2008 and 2010, will be a "wave" election bringing a decisive victory in
congressional races for one party or another, or if most races will be decided
on local issues and the quality of the individual candidates.

As I have often pointed out, the major and most credible polls become more
and more accurate as election day approaches. No serious polling organization
wants to appear ridiculous the day after the election because their poll numbers
were so far off the actual results. But this cycle, more than most in memory,
there is a plethora of polls of varying quality and credibility, many of them paid
for by one party or another, one candidate or another, or one special interest
of another.  These polls have little interest in credibility after the election;
they are paid to produce a reaction. Let the voter beware of these polls!

As I have pointed out in this space many times in the past year, every cycle
has its surprises. It will be no different this year. Some outcomes will change
dramatically in a few days. Some presumptions will be shattered.

This is an unusual national election cycle because U.S. voters have been
presented with an unusually stark choice in the direction of the nation ahead.
Through all the verbal smokescreens, unsupportable statistics, vague promises
and rhetorical tricks, American voters must sort it all out as best as they can,
and make their choices. Those choices will have consequences. This time,
I think, the consequences will be very critical.

Very, very critical to where the United States will go next.

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[SPECIAL NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS: Between now and election day, most
of the commentary, special reports and political bulletins will be sent directly
to subscribers at their e-mail address, and will not appear on this site.]

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Copyright (c) 2012 by Barry Casselman.  All rights reserved.

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Minnewisowa Rising Again?

The imaginary superstate of “Minnewisowa,” first suggested in 2004 as
the electoral combination of three demographically and politically similar
individual adjoining states --- Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa --- now in
the closing days of the 2012 presidential election emerges again as a
battleground phenomenon.

In 2008, all three states voted for Barack Obama, and by sizable margins.
Only four years before, one voted for George W. Bush (Iowa), one voted for
John Kerry (Minnesota), and one was too close to call until the wee hours
of election night (Wisconsin). These three midwestern farm states, each with
one large metropolitan area, and similar ethic origin immigrants in the
19th century, offer a total of 26 electoral votes to the presidential candidate
who wins them all (more than Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or
Illinois offer individually). Furthermore, because of their proximity, the TV
media market buy for one state affects the neighboring state, and a campaign
appearance in one is often widely reported in the others.

At the outset of the 2012 campaign, only Iowa seemed a possibility for the
Republican ticket, whoever that might be. After the nomination of Mitt
Romney for president and Paul Ryan (from Wisconsin) for vice president,
however, it became quickly clear that Wisconsin would also be in play.
Finally, after President Obama’s disastrous first debate with Mitt Romney,
even traditionally Democratic Minnesota is showing signs of coming into
play by election day as a potential electoral tsunami moves across the nation,
with a clear momentum for Mr. Romney in virtually all polls.

I remain skeptical that Minnesota will cast its electoral votes for Mitt
Romney in the meeting for that purpose in the U.S. Congress on December
17, but it is, for the first time in this cycle, at least imaginable.

If indeed what is now considered a provisional “trend” is a true momentum,
a sweep of Minnewisowa will happen, as it did in 2008, and be part of a
decisive Romney victory.  I must hasten to add, however, that one more
presidential debate remains, and slightly more than two weeks will occur
before most voters (many have already cast absentee and “early” votes)
will make their final choices. No clear outcome in the presidential race is
visible yet.

So far, Minnesota has seen very little of the presidential campaign. Both
Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama, as well as Mr. Biden and Mr. Ryan, have
appeared for private fundraisers (there is a lot of political cash in this state).
But political ads have been virtually non-existent except when they are
broadcast from Minnesota stations for the purpose of reaching voters in
northern Iowa or western Wisconsin. The Obama campaign has a minimal
presence in the Gopher State, and the Romney campaign has almost
nothing visible. The 10-point margin for Mr. Obama here in 2008,
according to most local polls, has dwindled, perhaps to half, but all the
“battleground” action has appeared elsewhere in the presidential race. The
final result in Minnesota, if this condition continues, could bring another
10-point margin or a nail-biter (the latter perhaps more likely if the national
trend to Mr. Romney follows unabated).

Wisconsin and Iowa, too, have uncertain outcomes. Team Obama has
poured significant TV ad expenditures into both states. Mr. Obama
probably cannot afford to lose both, especially as he is likely to lose Indiana,
another midwestern state he narrowly won in 2008. Mr. Ryan is not
necessarily as popular in all of Wisconsin as he is in his home district.
The Democratic U.S. senate candidate Tammy Baldwin is also so far doing
better than expected in her race with popular former Governor Tommy
Thompson. On the other hand, several failed recall elections of GOP
officials instigated recently by the state Democrats have tended to demoralize
the liberal party here.

Republican voter registration in Iowa in recent months exceeded Democratic
registration for the first time in years. That advantage, while relatively small,
has grown since then. Mr. Obama won his first upset victory in Iowa in 2008,
defeating Hillary Clinton, and his campaign, despite the state’s small number
of electoral votes, considers it critical, and has put notable resources here. The
state lost a congressional seat in redistricting, and two incumbents. one
Democrat and one Republican are thus running against each other in a
newly-formed district. At least one other Iowa congressional race could be
close. Mr. Romney virtually tied Rick Santorum in the presidential caucus
here earlier in the year (a recount gave the win to Mr. Santorum by a handful
of votes), but he has so far not pulled away (as he has in neighboring Missouri
and Nebraska).

With less than three weeks to go, therefore, little is settled in the lands of
Minnewisowa. There is enough suspense, however, to make the superstate
a bellwether on election night, although the numerous battleground states
on the east coast (which will report their results earlier), might remove the
suspense by the time those eastern returns come in.

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Copyright (c) 2012 by Barry Casselman.  All rights reserved.