On April 2, there will be three elections, one for a
justice of the Wisconsin state supreme court, and
two special congressional elections in Florida to
fill vacancies that resulted when Republican
incumbents were offered positions in the second
Trump administration which began on January 20.
Normally, such elections have only significant impact
locally, but this year the impact could be much greater.
On paper, Republicans would be favored to win all
three, but polls and other signs indicate that
Democrats might win upsets in one, tow or all three
races.
The Wisconsin supreme court race is important
because the party of the winner will give that party
a majority on the state court. On political questions,
this court almost always divides along party lines.
Upcoming is a determination of new congressional
boundaries, and other election issues about which
there is sharp partisan disagreement.
Wisconsin has been a truly purple state in the
recent past with a Democrat as governor, one GOP
and one Democrat representing the state in the U.S.
Senate, five Republicans and three Democrats in the
U.S. House. Democrats hold lt. governor, attorney
general and secretary of state; a Republican is state
treasurer, and the GOP controls both hoses of the
state legislature.
Congressman-elect Matt Goetz, a Florida Republican,
was nominated to be attorney general by President-
elect Donald Trump, and he resigned from Congress
before taking the oath in January. (He later also
withdrew from consideration for the cabinet post.)
Florida Congressman Mike Waltz resigned to join the
Trump cabinet.
Both of these vacancies are holding special elections
on Tuesday, April 2. Although both districts are usually
reliably conservative, GOP party officials have been
expressing concern that Democrats might win one or
both of them.
Should any of these races provide upsets, the question
will be is there a sudden surge of Democrats voting in
protest to President Trump, or having won the 2024
election, are GOP voters no longer motivated to vote
as they were last year.
The actual vote totals will likely answer that question,
but in spite of the anger and disappointment of liberal
and progressive voters, it is more likely that
conservative voters could fail to turn out in elections
which do not have Donald Trump on the ballot.
Since Republicans currently hold 218 U.S. House seats,
the election of Democrats to the Florida vacancies, and
later to the other two vacancies, would not change
political control of the U.S. House —- although the GOP
margin would only be one seat.
President Trump’s recent withdrawal of New York
Congresswoman Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be U.N.
ambassador thus avoided a worse-case outcome in which
a special election of her seat plus the loss of the four
current vacancies could give the Democrats a one-seat
majority and the House speakership.
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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.
UPDATE ON APRIL 2:
The Democratic candidate for Wisconsin supreme court justice
won this race by about 10 points. She had led in pre-election
polling by 2-7 points, Turnout was historically heavy.
Both Republican congressional candidates won their special
elections to fill recent vacancies. Although each of them won
by double digits, their margins were less than half of what
they were for these seats in 2024.
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