barrycasselman: THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: 2022 Senate Races Taking Shape

Thursday, July 15, 2021

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: 2022 Senate Races Taking Shape

With filing dates still months away, and the 2022 national
mid-term elections more than a year distant, next cycle’s
U.S. senate battleground races are not yet fully formed, but
fundraising and political necessity are bringing many of
them into some shape earlier than usual.

Although 34 senate seats are up in 2022 --- 14 Democrats and
20 Republicans --- only 8-12 seats are now considered likely
battleground or competitive contests..

Most vulnerable are four Democratic incumbent seats
(Nevada, Georgia, New Hampshire and Arizona) and four
Republican incumbent seats (Wisconsin, Florida, North
Carolina and Pennsylvania). Colorado, Vermont, Missouri,
Ohio and Alaska additionally could become close contests,
depending on future decisions by incumbents and
potential challengers.

Unexpected vacancies, local and national issues, and a blue
or red election “wave” could also change currently-rated
“safe” races into battlegrounds.

Two of the four most vulnerable GOP seats are the result of
already announced retirements --- North Carolina Senator
Richard Burr and Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey.

Three major GOP candidates, including former Governor
Pat McCrory, and four major Democratic candidates,
including former state supreme court chief justice Cheri
Beasley, are in the race so far in North Carolina. Slight
lean Republican.

In Pennsylvania, the Democratic early field has five major
candidates, including Lt. Governor Fetterman, the early GOP
field has two major candidates announced, businessman
Jeff Bartos and military veteran Sean Parnell, but more are
expected. Toss-up.

If Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson decides to run again, he
will be he slight favorite, but it would likely be close. If he
does not run, the Democrat would be favored in this “purple”
state.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio faces a formidable
challenge from Democratic Rep, Val Demings, but the state
narrowly leans Republican.

Nevada Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto won in
2016 with 47% of the vote, and if Adam Laxalt, son of a former
New Mexico senator and grandson of a popular former
Nevada senator runs, she might not be the favorite in the race.

New Hampshire Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan also
faces a possible challenge from a Republican with a legendary
political family name --- in this case, popular GOP Governor
Chris Sununu., son of a former senator. If Sununu gets in
the race, he would be the favorite to win.

Georgia Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock narrowly
won a post-election run-off victory over a GOP incumbent.
Many blame then-outgoing President Trump for the loss.
Warnock must run again in 2022, and might have to face
Georgia football legend Herschel Walker as his GOP
opponent. Such a race would be a toss-up.

With former President Trump standing in the way of GOP
Governor Patrick Ducey running for the seat now held by
Arizona Democratic Senator Mark Kelly. the former
astronaut remains the favorite to win re-election in the
purple southwestern state where the GOP is divided.

Races for the GOP senate nomination in Ohio, Missouri,
Colorado and Alaska could also change the battleground
map, as would the retirement of Vermont Senator Leahy.

The U.S. senate is now tied 50-50 --- but Democrats control
because of the vice president’s tie-breaking vote. A net gain
of one seat would return control to the Republicans --- so
there is extra attention this cycle to the relatively few seats
where the outcome is perceived to be in doubt.

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Copyright (c) 2021 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

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About Barry Casselman

BARRY CASSELMAN is an author, journalist and lecturer who has reported and analyzed American presidential and national politics since 1972.

He founded, edited and published his first newspaper when he was 29. He has been a contributor to many national publications, including The Weekly Standard, realclearpolitics.com, Politico, Roll Call, Washington Examiner, The American Interest, Utne Reader, Campaigns and Elections Magazine, American Experiment Quarterly, Washington Times, The Rothenberg Political Report, Business Today, Election Politics, Business Ethics Magazine, San Francisco Examiner, Washington Insider, and American Commonwealth.

His regular op ed columns and other commentary in print, and on the internet, are distributed through the Preludium News Service. His blog ‘The Prairie Editor” has an international readership and appears on his website at www.barrycasselman.com .

He was a political analyst for WCCO-AM (CBS) for several years, for KSJN-AM (Public Radio International), and for KUOM-AM (National Public Radio). He has also broadcast on RAE in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and beginning in 2000, he produced and broadcast for Voice of America. In 2006, he presented news commentary on LBC, the independent 24-hour news radio network in London, England. He also provided election night analysis in 2006 for Minnesota Public Radio. In 2008, he returned to WCCO-AM for periodic national election commentary. Beginning in 2011, he began weekly commentary on the 2012 presidential campaign on a national radio podcast program originating in Dallas, TX.

Casselman was the original host of “Talk To Your City” on the Minneapolis Television Network, and was a frequent political commentator for KTCA-TV (PBS). In 1992 and 1994, he presented election night analysis for the Conus coast-to-coast All News Channel. In 1996, he provided live coverage from the presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire for All News Channel nationwide. He has also appeared on C-SPAN. In 2008, he was interviewed by ABC-TV Evening News with Charles Gibson.

He has covered national presidential primaries, caucuses and straw polls since 1976, and attended Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1988. He has traveled throughout the United States to report on significant political events, including the national congressional debate in Williamsburg in 1996, the presidential debates, national conventions and events of the Democratic Leadership Council, Democratic National Committee, Republican National Committee, United We Stand America, Reform Party, National Governors Association, NAACP, AFL-CIO, Christian Coalition, CPAC, Green Party and the Independence Party.

In 2012, he was invited to be a civilian participant in the 58th annual seminar on national security at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, PA. Also in 2012, he was a speaker at the Jefferson Educational Society's Global Summit IV. At that event, he received the Thomas Hagen "Dignitas" Award for lifetime achievement.

From 1990-2011, he was the executive director of the non-profit International Conference Foundation, and hosted more than 500 world leaders, foreign journalists and other international visitors. At the non-partisan Foundation, he also organized four national symposia: the first on low-income housing with then-HUD Secretary Jack Kemp; the second, a highly-acclaimed conference on “Locating the New Political Center in America” with Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and leading spokespersons of the Clinton administration as well as newly-emerged independent groups; the third, a symposium on public communications with then-Governor Tom Ridge, former White House press secretary Mike McCurry, Tony Blankley and other national figures; and in 2003, a symposium on homeland security with Secretary Ridge and leading local and national experts. During this time, he also organized numerous smaller conferences, tours and events for the U.S. Information Agency and the U.S. Department of State for its International Visitor Program and its Foreign Press Center programs. In 2008, he organized a special program for international media and visitors attending the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. The Foundation also sponsored programs presenting domestic and international authors and their books.

In 2007, Mr. Casselman helped create and plan the nationally-broadcast and podcast dialogue between former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at the Cooper Union in New York City, and he continued to work on related debate and public policy discussion projects in the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Mr. Casselman has been a lecturer on public policy at Princeton University’s annual international business conferences in New York, and its regional conferences in Chicago since 2005; He also has been a guest lecturer at George Washington University, Carleton College, The Chautauqua (NY) Institution, Gannon University, Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Santa Barbara City College, University of St. Thomas, Metropolitan State University, Augsburg College, University of Minnesota, Jefferson Educational Society, and on the international voyages of the Queen Elizabeth 2, Sagafjord, Vistafjord and Royal Viking Sun. He has made presentations on journalism and the arts at Carleton College, University of Minnesota, College of St. Catherine, Minneapolis College of Art and Design, Walker Art Center, Metropolitan State University, Mercyhurst College and the Brazilian Writers Union in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

His non-fiction book North Star Rising was published in 2007 by Pogo Press, an imprint of Finney Company. In 2008, Pogo Press published Minnesota Souvenir, Casselman’s history and visitor guide for the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul. He was editor and co-author of the book Taking Turns: Political Stalemate or a New Direction in the Race for 2012, a preview of that year's national election.

He has been cited in Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics and in William Safire’s Political Dictionary. Casselman has invented a number of political words and phrases which are now in frequent usage, and listed in various online dictionaries.

He is also a widely-published American poet, short story writer and playwright whose work has been translated and published in Europe, South America and Asia. He is the author of four published books of literary prose and poetry. His work has been frequently anthologized. Two of his plays, in collaboration with composer Randall Davidson, have been performed by the Actors Theater of St. Paul, Minnesota Orchestra, St. Donat’s Ensemble of Wales, and by independent productions at the Union Depot in St. Paul and the Foss Theater at Augsburg College in Minneapolis. He has provided original texts for two award-winning experimental films, as well as texts for other independent short films and videos.

Barry Casselman was born in Erie, Pennsylvania. He received his B.A. with major honors from the University of Pennsylvania and his M.F.A. at the Writers Workshop at the University of Iowa. He has also studied in Paris, and attended the University of Madrid. He now lives in Minneapolis.

Thursday, July 15, 2021

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: 2022 Senate Races Taking Shape

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