barrycasselman: THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: 2024 Parallels?

Thursday, June 24, 2021

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: 2024 Parallels?

Some history-minded folks are now looking back to the terms
of President Grover Cleveland (1885-89 and 1893-97) because
he is the only person to serve in two non-consecutive terms.
But those doing so are not finding other parallels for s possible
2024 outcome. Cleveland was a Democrat, and won the popular
vote in all three of his presidential elections (losing narrowly
the electoral college vote to Republican Benjamin Harrison in
1888).

Other folks are looking back to the attempt of President
Theodore Roosevelt (1901-1909) to win a non-consecutive third
term in 1912 as a third party nominee, but although Roosevelt
got more popular and electoral votes than the GOP incumbent
William Howard Taft, he came in a distant second to Democrat
Woodrow Wilson (who clearly would have lost to Taft had
Roosevelt not been running).

In fact, throughout the history of U.S. presidential elections,
the most that third party candidates accomplish is to enable
underdog major party nominees to win as happened in 1860
with Abraham Lincoln, in 1912 with Wilson, in 1968 (perhaps)
with Richard Nixon, in 1992 (probably) with Bill Clinton, and
in 2000 with George W. Bush.

2024 is very far away politically. The 2022 national mid-term
elections will be quite important as a voter test of Biden
administration policies and results. Because of his age, Mr.
Biden could be the first modern president to retire voluntarily
after one four-year term. (Presidents Theodore Roosevelt,
Calvin Coolidge and Harry Truman each was only elected
once, but each also filled out most of the term of a president
who died in office.)

Historical parallels seem harder to come by these days. Old
patterns are replaced. John Kennedy was the first Catholic to be
elected president; Ronald Reagan the first movie star to win the
top job, Geraldine Ferraro the first woman vice presidential
nominee (and the first Italian-American on a national ticket),
Joe Lieberman the first Jewish vice presidential nominee,
Barack Obama the first black president, Mitt Romney
the first Mormon presidential nominee. Hillary Clinton the first
woman presidential nominee, Donald Trump the first TV
celebrity president, and Kamala Harris the first black woman
vice president.

In 2016, 2020 and almost certainly in 2024, both parties fielded,
or will field, serious presidential candidates with a great variety
of religious, racial, gender, ethnic and occupational backgrounds
and heritages.

Since every voter belongs to multiple interest groups (e.g., a
female Catholic Hispanic physician) and has views on a variety
of “hot button” issues (e.g., abortion, guns, political correctness,
etc.), the stereotypes of the past have mostly evaporated. Further
complicating presidential election forecasting and use of past
history patterns is the recent surge of media bias and inaccurate
polling.

In short, looking ahead to 2024 is more speculative than such
activity has ever been.

The odds might better at a local race track.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright (c) 2021 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

No comments:

About Barry Casselman

BARRY CASSELMAN is an author, journalist and lecturer who has reported and analyzed American presidential and national politics since 1972.

He founded, edited and published his first newspaper when he was 29. He has been a contributor to many national publications, including The Weekly Standard, realclearpolitics.com, Politico, Roll Call, Washington Examiner, The American Interest, Utne Reader, Campaigns and Elections Magazine, American Experiment Quarterly, Washington Times, The Rothenberg Political Report, Business Today, Election Politics, Business Ethics Magazine, San Francisco Examiner, Washington Insider, and American Commonwealth.

His regular op ed columns and other commentary in print, and on the internet, are distributed through the Preludium News Service. His blog ‘The Prairie Editor” has an international readership and appears on his website at www.barrycasselman.com .

He was a political analyst for WCCO-AM (CBS) for several years, for KSJN-AM (Public Radio International), and for KUOM-AM (National Public Radio). He has also broadcast on RAE in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and beginning in 2000, he produced and broadcast for Voice of America. In 2006, he presented news commentary on LBC, the independent 24-hour news radio network in London, England. He also provided election night analysis in 2006 for Minnesota Public Radio. In 2008, he returned to WCCO-AM for periodic national election commentary. Beginning in 2011, he began weekly commentary on the 2012 presidential campaign on a national radio podcast program originating in Dallas, TX.

Casselman was the original host of “Talk To Your City” on the Minneapolis Television Network, and was a frequent political commentator for KTCA-TV (PBS). In 1992 and 1994, he presented election night analysis for the Conus coast-to-coast All News Channel. In 1996, he provided live coverage from the presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire for All News Channel nationwide. He has also appeared on C-SPAN. In 2008, he was interviewed by ABC-TV Evening News with Charles Gibson.

He has covered national presidential primaries, caucuses and straw polls since 1976, and attended Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1988. He has traveled throughout the United States to report on significant political events, including the national congressional debate in Williamsburg in 1996, the presidential debates, national conventions and events of the Democratic Leadership Council, Democratic National Committee, Republican National Committee, United We Stand America, Reform Party, National Governors Association, NAACP, AFL-CIO, Christian Coalition, CPAC, Green Party and the Independence Party.

In 2012, he was invited to be a civilian participant in the 58th annual seminar on national security at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, PA. Also in 2012, he was a speaker at the Jefferson Educational Society's Global Summit IV. At that event, he received the Thomas Hagen "Dignitas" Award for lifetime achievement.

From 1990-2011, he was the executive director of the non-profit International Conference Foundation, and hosted more than 500 world leaders, foreign journalists and other international visitors. At the non-partisan Foundation, he also organized four national symposia: the first on low-income housing with then-HUD Secretary Jack Kemp; the second, a highly-acclaimed conference on “Locating the New Political Center in America” with Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and leading spokespersons of the Clinton administration as well as newly-emerged independent groups; the third, a symposium on public communications with then-Governor Tom Ridge, former White House press secretary Mike McCurry, Tony Blankley and other national figures; and in 2003, a symposium on homeland security with Secretary Ridge and leading local and national experts. During this time, he also organized numerous smaller conferences, tours and events for the U.S. Information Agency and the U.S. Department of State for its International Visitor Program and its Foreign Press Center programs. In 2008, he organized a special program for international media and visitors attending the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. The Foundation also sponsored programs presenting domestic and international authors and their books.

In 2007, Mr. Casselman helped create and plan the nationally-broadcast and podcast dialogue between former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at the Cooper Union in New York City, and he continued to work on related debate and public policy discussion projects in the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Mr. Casselman has been a lecturer on public policy at Princeton University’s annual international business conferences in New York, and its regional conferences in Chicago since 2005; He also has been a guest lecturer at George Washington University, Carleton College, The Chautauqua (NY) Institution, Gannon University, Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Santa Barbara City College, University of St. Thomas, Metropolitan State University, Augsburg College, University of Minnesota, Jefferson Educational Society, and on the international voyages of the Queen Elizabeth 2, Sagafjord, Vistafjord and Royal Viking Sun. He has made presentations on journalism and the arts at Carleton College, University of Minnesota, College of St. Catherine, Minneapolis College of Art and Design, Walker Art Center, Metropolitan State University, Mercyhurst College and the Brazilian Writers Union in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

His non-fiction book North Star Rising was published in 2007 by Pogo Press, an imprint of Finney Company. In 2008, Pogo Press published Minnesota Souvenir, Casselman’s history and visitor guide for the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul. He was editor and co-author of the book Taking Turns: Political Stalemate or a New Direction in the Race for 2012, a preview of that year's national election.

He has been cited in Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics and in William Safire’s Political Dictionary. Casselman has invented a number of political words and phrases which are now in frequent usage, and listed in various online dictionaries.

He is also a widely-published American poet, short story writer and playwright whose work has been translated and published in Europe, South America and Asia. He is the author of four published books of literary prose and poetry. His work has been frequently anthologized. Two of his plays, in collaboration with composer Randall Davidson, have been performed by the Actors Theater of St. Paul, Minnesota Orchestra, St. Donat’s Ensemble of Wales, and by independent productions at the Union Depot in St. Paul and the Foss Theater at Augsburg College in Minneapolis. He has provided original texts for two award-winning experimental films, as well as texts for other independent short films and videos.

Barry Casselman was born in Erie, Pennsylvania. He received his B.A. with major honors from the University of Pennsylvania and his M.F.A. at the Writers Workshop at the University of Iowa. He has also studied in Paris, and attended the University of Madrid. He now lives in Minneapolis.

Thursday, June 24, 2021

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: 2024 Parallels?

No comments:

Post a Comment

Blog Archive

Recommended sites