THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: A Fog Of Speculation

The state 2020 Census numbers are now in, resulting in 6
states gaining congressional House seats, and 7 states
losing one seat each.

Texas gained 2 seats; Florida, Montana, Colorado, Oregon,
and North Carolina each gained one. California, Michigan,
Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York and West Virginia  
now each have one seat less.

Politically, it was mostly good news  for Republican
aspirations to win back control of he U.S. house in 2022
because the GOP directs the redrawing of district
boundaries in most of these states. However, Democrats
are likely to make a one-seat gain each in Colorado and
Oregon while likely to eliminate at least one GOP seat
each in California and Illinois, --- all states where they
control the redistricting process. West Virginia. which
has 3 Republican house members, will automatically lose
one seat. The net result is likely, therefore, to be an overall
GOP gain of 2-3 seats from reapportionment alone.

The actual new district lines will now be drawn before
December 31, 2021, and will be on the ballots in 2022. In
addition to new districts resulting from reapportionment,
all U.S. house district boundaries are subject to change,
based on the new census --- except in those states which
have only one representative.  In this, too, Republicans
have the advantage of controlling many more state
redistricting processes.

What neither party can now control, however, is what the
mood of the voters will be  in November, 2022. New
congressional district boundaries cannot insure against
political upsets when the voters are in the mood for
change --- as they were in 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2018.
Given the current voter divide, and the post-pandemic
uncertainties, next year’s national mid-term elections
remain in a fog of speculation.

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Copyright (c) 2021 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.