THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Reapportionment 2021

Every ten years, following the Constitution-mandated census,
there is an adjustment of the number of seats  in the U.S.
House of Representatives allocated to each of the states on a
strict basis of population numbers and formulas. There are
currently 435 seats, and every state is entitled to least one
seat regardless of population.

Each state is responsible for drawing up the boundaries of
their congressional districts with each district having the
more or less same population numbers. States which gain or
lose seats from the previous cycle will see he most dramatic
changes, but states with the same number of seats, yet
significant internal population shifts, might have notable
boundary changes as well.

In the past, reapportionment was often an opportunity for
one political party in a state, if it controlled the process of
redrawing its districts, to use its advantage by so-called
gerrymandering (named after 19th century Governor
Elbridge Gerry who originated the practice in 1812 by his
signing a law creating a Massachusetts congressional
district so oddly-shaped it was caricatured as a salamander.
(The term “gerrymander” arose as a portmanteau of Gerry
and the small lizard.)

The two methods of gerrymandering are called “cracking”
and “packing.” Each creates their advantage with distorted
shaped and located districts --- the former by eliminating the
other party’s majority in the old district, the latter by
making a new district much more one-sided, but in both
cases arbitrarily manipulating voter areas.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 2019 that federal courts
have no jurisdiction over gerrymandering cases, but state
courts do, and recent cases, notably in Wisconsin, indicate
that extreme gerrymandering might no longer work in many
states, especially when courts do the final redistricting.

The reporting of final 2020 census results has been delayed
for a variety of reasons, including he pandemic and change
of administrations. The new reporting date to Congress is
April 30. In order to be applied to the 2022 national mid-term
elections, the reallocation of U.S. house seats must occur by
December 31, 2021. In its preliminary estimate of the U.S
population at 321 million, the approximate population of
each congressional district would be about 700,000.

For perspective, it should be noted that only a few states gain
or lose seats in reapportionment. Few states, furthermore,
have enough internal demographic change to significantly
alter the boundaries of districts even if their number of seats
remains the same. Normally, one party has a large enough
margin in the U.S. house that any gerrymandering has little
or no impact on house business or outcomes

But in 2021, with the Democratic majority only 5 seats, any
gerrymandering could affect who controls after the 2022
mid-terms. Most analysts now give the Republicans the
advantage in 2022 redistricting, although Democrats are
proposing legislation to thwart that advantage.

The complexity of reapportionment following the current
controversies and delays of the 2020 census make it a difficult
story for the public to follow. It has become over many decades
an insider’s power game. Except to the voters of the affected
districts, it rarely matters  much.

In 2021, however, it could be a very big deal.

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Copyright (c) 2021 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.