barrycasselman: THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Suddenly, "Minnewisowa"" Is Back In Play

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Suddenly, "Minnewisowa"" Is Back In Play

The electoral college superstate of “Minnewisowa” (first named
by me in 2004) is suddenly in play in the 2016 presidential contest.

This superstate, composed of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa,
has a tradition of voting as a bloc, consists of 26 electoral votes,
and shares (in addition to adjoining location) many demographic
characteristics.

In 2008 and 2012, Minnewisowa voted all its electoral votes for
Barack Obama, supported by strong popular vote margins for the
Democratic ticket.

Initially, it appeared that would be repeated in 2016, but recent
indications are that Iowa is leaning to Republican nominee
Donald Trump, Wisconsin has become very competitive, and only
Minnesota seems now secure for Democratic nominee Hillary
Clinton.

In spite of the controversies surrounding Mr. Trump, his success
in Iowa can be attributed to the united effort by the Iowa GOP
around his candidacy, Long-time and popular Governor Terry
Branstad, and both GOP U.S. senators, Chuck Grassley (running
for re-election) and Joni Ernst are strongly supporting the top of
the GOP ticket, something which has not yet happened in some
other battleground states across the country.

In Wisconsin, Governor Scott Walker (previously a competitor to
Mr. Trump in the presidential nominating contest) and Speaker of
the House Paul Ryan (and Wisconsin congressman) have endorsed
the GOP ticket much more cautiously, but are working very hard
to re-elect Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson and several other GOP
congressional incumbents in 2016. The governor’s political
organization and the speaker’s popularity, combined with Mr.
Trump’s frequent campaign stops in the state, are making the
Badger State probably more competitive than it has been in many
presidential campaign cycles.

Only in Minnesota, which has no statewide Republican
officeholders, and a weak GOP state party organization, does
Mr. Trump trail Mrs. Clinton significantly. Nonetheless, the
Republican ticket appears strong in outstate Minnesota,
particularly in congressional districts 6, 7 and 8. In MN-8,
a blue collar area in northeastern Minnesota, Mrs. Clinton,
according to private polls, is reportedly trailing Mr. Trump
and endangering the re-election of the incumbent DFL
(Democratic) congressman (who had previously endorsed
Bernie Sanders in the state caucus). In In MN-7, the incumbent
DFL congressman is so conservative that Trump’s popularity
there does not endanger his re-election.

Since both Iowa and Wisconsin both voted Democratic in 2008
and 2012, a Trump victory in one or both of them would notably
enhance his path to victory in November, especially if they
were added to victories in Michigan, Ohio and/or Pennsylvania
where Mr. Trump’s campaign currently appears to be unusually
strong (and where Mr. Obama won all their electoral votes in
2008 and 2012).

With 60 days to go until election day, however, Mrs. Clinton
still leads in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, as well as
in several other national battleground states. The race remains
hers, unless as happened in 2008, she throws it away.

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Copyright (c) 2016 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

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About Barry Casselman

BARRY CASSELMAN is an author, journalist and lecturer who has reported and analyzed American presidential and national politics since 1972.

He founded, edited and published his first newspaper when he was 29. He has been a contributor to many national publications, including The Weekly Standard, realclearpolitics.com, Politico, Roll Call, Washington Examiner, The American Interest, Utne Reader, Campaigns and Elections Magazine, American Experiment Quarterly, Washington Times, The Rothenberg Political Report, Business Today, Election Politics, Business Ethics Magazine, San Francisco Examiner, Washington Insider, and American Commonwealth.

His regular op ed columns and other commentary in print, and on the internet, are distributed through the Preludium News Service. His blog ‘The Prairie Editor” has an international readership and appears on his website at www.barrycasselman.com .

He was a political analyst for WCCO-AM (CBS) for several years, for KSJN-AM (Public Radio International), and for KUOM-AM (National Public Radio). He has also broadcast on RAE in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and beginning in 2000, he produced and broadcast for Voice of America. In 2006, he presented news commentary on LBC, the independent 24-hour news radio network in London, England. He also provided election night analysis in 2006 for Minnesota Public Radio. In 2008, he returned to WCCO-AM for periodic national election commentary. Beginning in 2011, he began weekly commentary on the 2012 presidential campaign on a national radio podcast program originating in Dallas, TX.

Casselman was the original host of “Talk To Your City” on the Minneapolis Television Network, and was a frequent political commentator for KTCA-TV (PBS). In 1992 and 1994, he presented election night analysis for the Conus coast-to-coast All News Channel. In 1996, he provided live coverage from the presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire for All News Channel nationwide. He has also appeared on C-SPAN. In 2008, he was interviewed by ABC-TV Evening News with Charles Gibson.

He has covered national presidential primaries, caucuses and straw polls since 1976, and attended Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1988. He has traveled throughout the United States to report on significant political events, including the national congressional debate in Williamsburg in 1996, the presidential debates, national conventions and events of the Democratic Leadership Council, Democratic National Committee, Republican National Committee, United We Stand America, Reform Party, National Governors Association, NAACP, AFL-CIO, Christian Coalition, CPAC, Green Party and the Independence Party.

In 2012, he was invited to be a civilian participant in the 58th annual seminar on national security at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, PA. Also in 2012, he was a speaker at the Jefferson Educational Society's Global Summit IV. At that event, he received the Thomas Hagen "Dignitas" Award for lifetime achievement.

From 1990-2011, he was the executive director of the non-profit International Conference Foundation, and hosted more than 500 world leaders, foreign journalists and other international visitors. At the non-partisan Foundation, he also organized four national symposia: the first on low-income housing with then-HUD Secretary Jack Kemp; the second, a highly-acclaimed conference on “Locating the New Political Center in America” with Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and leading spokespersons of the Clinton administration as well as newly-emerged independent groups; the third, a symposium on public communications with then-Governor Tom Ridge, former White House press secretary Mike McCurry, Tony Blankley and other national figures; and in 2003, a symposium on homeland security with Secretary Ridge and leading local and national experts. During this time, he also organized numerous smaller conferences, tours and events for the U.S. Information Agency and the U.S. Department of State for its International Visitor Program and its Foreign Press Center programs. In 2008, he organized a special program for international media and visitors attending the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. The Foundation also sponsored programs presenting domestic and international authors and their books.

In 2007, Mr. Casselman helped create and plan the nationally-broadcast and podcast dialogue between former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at the Cooper Union in New York City, and he continued to work on related debate and public policy discussion projects in the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Mr. Casselman has been a lecturer on public policy at Princeton University’s annual international business conferences in New York, and its regional conferences in Chicago since 2005; He also has been a guest lecturer at George Washington University, Carleton College, The Chautauqua (NY) Institution, Gannon University, Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Santa Barbara City College, University of St. Thomas, Metropolitan State University, Augsburg College, University of Minnesota, Jefferson Educational Society, and on the international voyages of the Queen Elizabeth 2, Sagafjord, Vistafjord and Royal Viking Sun. He has made presentations on journalism and the arts at Carleton College, University of Minnesota, College of St. Catherine, Minneapolis College of Art and Design, Walker Art Center, Metropolitan State University, Mercyhurst College and the Brazilian Writers Union in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

His non-fiction book North Star Rising was published in 2007 by Pogo Press, an imprint of Finney Company. In 2008, Pogo Press published Minnesota Souvenir, Casselman’s history and visitor guide for the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul. He was editor and co-author of the book Taking Turns: Political Stalemate or a New Direction in the Race for 2012, a preview of that year's national election.

He has been cited in Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics and in William Safire’s Political Dictionary. Casselman has invented a number of political words and phrases which are now in frequent usage, and listed in various online dictionaries.

He is also a widely-published American poet, short story writer and playwright whose work has been translated and published in Europe, South America and Asia. He is the author of four published books of literary prose and poetry. His work has been frequently anthologized. Two of his plays, in collaboration with composer Randall Davidson, have been performed by the Actors Theater of St. Paul, Minnesota Orchestra, St. Donat’s Ensemble of Wales, and by independent productions at the Union Depot in St. Paul and the Foss Theater at Augsburg College in Minneapolis. He has provided original texts for two award-winning experimental films, as well as texts for other independent short films and videos.

Barry Casselman was born in Erie, Pennsylvania. He received his B.A. with major honors from the University of Pennsylvania and his M.F.A. at the Writers Workshop at the University of Iowa. He has also studied in Paris, and attended the University of Madrid. He now lives in Minneapolis.

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Suddenly, "Minnewisowa"" Is Back In Play

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