barrycasselman: THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Campaign Update 13

Thursday, January 7, 2016

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Campaign Update 13

DEMOCRAT WEBB GETS SERIOUS
ABOUT INDEPENDENT RUN
Former Virginia Senator and Navy Secretary Jim Webb
recently withdrew from the contest for the Democratic
nomination for president, and when he did, he hinted he
might run as an independent in November. Apparently,
he was serious. He has now hired the man who was in
charge of the Draft Biden effort, and there is an active
Webb For President website on the internet. Webb, a
centrist who could get no traction as his party has been
pulled to the left by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders
(who is running) and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth
Warren (who is not), is actively exploring an independent
run and examining the closing dates for getting on the
November ballot in the 50 states plus DC. Should he run,
it is not yet definitely clear how he might affect the
outcome --- other than providing a comfortable haven
for Democrats unhappy with their nominee chosen in
Philadelphia.

IOWA CAUCUS ONLY THREE
WEEKS AWAY
The polls show Texas Senator Ted Cruz leading Donald
Trump in the Iowa Caucus set for February 1, but only a
relatively small percentage of eligible Iowa voters usually
participate in the event. The vote will also test the
traditional view that about 80% of Iowa caucus attenders
make up their minds in the final week or 10 days. The
caucus totals also could be much closer than expected.
The initial count in 2012 had Mitt Romney the winner, but
a recount showed that Rick Santorum had actually won by
a few votes. Iowa only infrequently predicts the eventual
nominee, but a candidate who does much better than
expected here, could get some momentum in New Hampshire
and later voting.

ATTACKS ON CANDIDATES A MEASURE
OF HOW WELL THEY’RE DOING?
One way to measure how a presidential nomination candidate
is doing, especially as the voting draws near, is to assess who
is the target of most negative campaigning. Until now, that
main target has been Donald Trump. Recently, however, Florida
Senator Marco Rubio and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie
have seemed to draw most of the ire of their rivals.

MINNESOTA 2ND DISTRICT NOW
MORE COMPETITIVE
When Minnesota’s 2nd district GOP Congressman John Kline
unexpectedly announced his retirement, there was no apparent
successor to take his place. The district has also recently been
trending to the Democrats (in this state, called the DFL). Two
wealthy liberal women announced for the Democratic
nomination, and four weak or unknown conservatives announced
for the GOP. It appeared likely to be a Democratic pick-up in
November. Two recent developments have seemed to make the
race once again very competitive. The Democrat most able to
self-fund has withdrawn, and the national GOP has successfully
recruited a well-respected woman corporate CEO to run on the
conservative side. Money will flow into and from this race, and it
will now likely be very close.

WILL THE GOP RACE BE WON
AT THE CONVENTION?
Speculation is now rampant about a possible stalemated
Republican presidential nomination contest that is decided at
the GOP convention in mid-July in Cleveland. This circumstance
has not happened for either major party in recent times, but it
technically could happen, especially if there are several serious
candidates who stay in through the final primaries. The rules
have been that most delegates are committed to vote for the
candidate they were aligned with as a result of their state’s
primary and caucus, especially in the inner-take-all states,
for at least two ballots, but each party can write and re-write
their own rules. There are also a number of institutional GOP
delegates who can choose whomever they like. Even if the early
voting through Super Tuesday does not produce a putative
winner, the large number of delegates chosen in the later
primaries make it more likely than not the choice will be made
before the convention begins. A case in point was the 2008
Democratic contest in which Hillary Clinton began winning
later primaries, and Barack Obama only clinched his nomination
at the end of the primary season. Anything could happen,
especially in this unusual cycle, but laws of political gravity weigh
more heavily on the side of an unbrokered convention.

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Copyright (c) 2016 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

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About Barry Casselman

BARRY CASSELMAN is an author, journalist and lecturer who has reported and analyzed American presidential and national politics since 1972.

He founded, edited and published his first newspaper when he was 29. He has been a contributor to many national publications, including The Weekly Standard, realclearpolitics.com, Politico, Roll Call, Washington Examiner, The American Interest, Utne Reader, Campaigns and Elections Magazine, American Experiment Quarterly, Washington Times, The Rothenberg Political Report, Business Today, Election Politics, Business Ethics Magazine, San Francisco Examiner, Washington Insider, and American Commonwealth.

His regular op ed columns and other commentary in print, and on the internet, are distributed through the Preludium News Service. His blog ‘The Prairie Editor” has an international readership and appears on his website at www.barrycasselman.com .

He was a political analyst for WCCO-AM (CBS) for several years, for KSJN-AM (Public Radio International), and for KUOM-AM (National Public Radio). He has also broadcast on RAE in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and beginning in 2000, he produced and broadcast for Voice of America. In 2006, he presented news commentary on LBC, the independent 24-hour news radio network in London, England. He also provided election night analysis in 2006 for Minnesota Public Radio. In 2008, he returned to WCCO-AM for periodic national election commentary. Beginning in 2011, he began weekly commentary on the 2012 presidential campaign on a national radio podcast program originating in Dallas, TX.

Casselman was the original host of “Talk To Your City” on the Minneapolis Television Network, and was a frequent political commentator for KTCA-TV (PBS). In 1992 and 1994, he presented election night analysis for the Conus coast-to-coast All News Channel. In 1996, he provided live coverage from the presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire for All News Channel nationwide. He has also appeared on C-SPAN. In 2008, he was interviewed by ABC-TV Evening News with Charles Gibson.

He has covered national presidential primaries, caucuses and straw polls since 1976, and attended Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1988. He has traveled throughout the United States to report on significant political events, including the national congressional debate in Williamsburg in 1996, the presidential debates, national conventions and events of the Democratic Leadership Council, Democratic National Committee, Republican National Committee, United We Stand America, Reform Party, National Governors Association, NAACP, AFL-CIO, Christian Coalition, CPAC, Green Party and the Independence Party.

In 2012, he was invited to be a civilian participant in the 58th annual seminar on national security at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, PA. Also in 2012, he was a speaker at the Jefferson Educational Society's Global Summit IV. At that event, he received the Thomas Hagen "Dignitas" Award for lifetime achievement.

From 1990-2011, he was the executive director of the non-profit International Conference Foundation, and hosted more than 500 world leaders, foreign journalists and other international visitors. At the non-partisan Foundation, he also organized four national symposia: the first on low-income housing with then-HUD Secretary Jack Kemp; the second, a highly-acclaimed conference on “Locating the New Political Center in America” with Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and leading spokespersons of the Clinton administration as well as newly-emerged independent groups; the third, a symposium on public communications with then-Governor Tom Ridge, former White House press secretary Mike McCurry, Tony Blankley and other national figures; and in 2003, a symposium on homeland security with Secretary Ridge and leading local and national experts. During this time, he also organized numerous smaller conferences, tours and events for the U.S. Information Agency and the U.S. Department of State for its International Visitor Program and its Foreign Press Center programs. In 2008, he organized a special program for international media and visitors attending the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. The Foundation also sponsored programs presenting domestic and international authors and their books.

In 2007, Mr. Casselman helped create and plan the nationally-broadcast and podcast dialogue between former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at the Cooper Union in New York City, and he continued to work on related debate and public policy discussion projects in the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Mr. Casselman has been a lecturer on public policy at Princeton University’s annual international business conferences in New York, and its regional conferences in Chicago since 2005; He also has been a guest lecturer at George Washington University, Carleton College, The Chautauqua (NY) Institution, Gannon University, Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Santa Barbara City College, University of St. Thomas, Metropolitan State University, Augsburg College, University of Minnesota, Jefferson Educational Society, and on the international voyages of the Queen Elizabeth 2, Sagafjord, Vistafjord and Royal Viking Sun. He has made presentations on journalism and the arts at Carleton College, University of Minnesota, College of St. Catherine, Minneapolis College of Art and Design, Walker Art Center, Metropolitan State University, Mercyhurst College and the Brazilian Writers Union in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

His non-fiction book North Star Rising was published in 2007 by Pogo Press, an imprint of Finney Company. In 2008, Pogo Press published Minnesota Souvenir, Casselman’s history and visitor guide for the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul. He was editor and co-author of the book Taking Turns: Political Stalemate or a New Direction in the Race for 2012, a preview of that year's national election.

He has been cited in Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics and in William Safire’s Political Dictionary. Casselman has invented a number of political words and phrases which are now in frequent usage, and listed in various online dictionaries.

He is also a widely-published American poet, short story writer and playwright whose work has been translated and published in Europe, South America and Asia. He is the author of four published books of literary prose and poetry. His work has been frequently anthologized. Two of his plays, in collaboration with composer Randall Davidson, have been performed by the Actors Theater of St. Paul, Minnesota Orchestra, St. Donat’s Ensemble of Wales, and by independent productions at the Union Depot in St. Paul and the Foss Theater at Augsburg College in Minneapolis. He has provided original texts for two award-winning experimental films, as well as texts for other independent short films and videos.

Barry Casselman was born in Erie, Pennsylvania. He received his B.A. with major honors from the University of Pennsylvania and his M.F.A. at the Writers Workshop at the University of Iowa. He has also studied in Paris, and attended the University of Madrid. He now lives in Minneapolis.

Thursday, January 7, 2016

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Campaign Update 13

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