barrycasselman: THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Carly, John And Chris

Monday, August 10, 2015

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Carly, John And Chris

As I have been suggesting for some time, the first Republican
debate has begun the more serious stage of the 2016 GOP
presidential race. Donald Trump has provided a mixture of
entertainment and self-indulgence prior to the curtain going
up, but now that Carly (Fiorina), John (Kasich) and Chris
(Christie) have shown their faces before the audience, we will
have a different theater of political operations.

Mr. Trump, incidentally, will continue to obtain high poll
numbers and media attention, and the Republican
establishment should welcome that. An early departure by
Trump from the race while his numbers are high could enable
him to run more credibly as a third party candidate and do
some damage to the GOP. When he fades, as he will in the
coming months, his interest in an independent candidacy will
also fade as it becomes obvious such a run would likely hurt
no one except perhaps the Democratic nominee (from whom
he would likely draw more votes, especially if that nominee is
Hillary Clinton, in November, 2016).

Meanwhile, the political vacuum he has filled recently is now
being filled by bigger electoral personalities, including Mrs.
Fiorina, Governor Kasich and Governor Christie, as well as
Senator Marco Rubio. Two other formidable figures, who so
far have not projected strong personalities, but have notable
bases of support, are former Governor Jeb Bush and Governor
Scott Walker.

The biggest draw at the next debate (in September) will not be
Trump, but Carly Fiorina. Mrs. Fiorina triumphed in Cleveland
at the “also-ran” second debate, and has created a sensation
of her own. Governors Kasich and Christie did well in the
“main event” debate, as did Senator Rubio. Mr. Trump’s comedy
act was, after all, a set-up to the main show.

This is not to take away from “The Donald’s” performance.
Not unlike Ross Perot in 1992 and John Anderson in 1980, Mr.
Trump has provided colorful and temporary distraction from the
real contest. It should also be noted that Strom Thurmond
and Henry Wallace did the same in 1948; George Wallace did it
in 1968; and Ralph Nader did the same in 2000. It is a very
long-standing U.S. election tradition that third party candidates
stir up a temporary fuss.

On the Democratic side, their Donald Trump is Senator Bernie
Sanders. The liberal party’s vacuum has been created by their
frontrunner and once putative nominee, Hillary Clinton, so far a
a very weak campaigner. Until and unless at least one major
Democratic candidate (Joe Biden? Andrew Cuomo? Elizabeth
Warren? Amy Klobuchar?) gets in the race, Mr. Sanders will
continue to rise as Mrs. Clinton continues to decline. The
Democrats have a serious problem, and it is not Mr. Sanders.

Much of the preliminary commentary about the 2016 presidential
election has been wrong because pundits and “experts” did not
adequately take the voters into their accounts. There was a
preoccupation with past results, pure demographics, and a lot of
presumption. The media became obsessed with political cliches
about dynasties and political correctness. Sensation, faux
controversy and celebrity have thus dominated the political
conversation until the first debate.

Now it is the voters turn to assert their rightful place in the
discussion. There are big surprises ahead.

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Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

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About Barry Casselman

BARRY CASSELMAN is an author, journalist and lecturer who has reported and analyzed American presidential and national politics since 1972.

He founded, edited and published his first newspaper when he was 29. He has been a contributor to many national publications, including The Weekly Standard, realclearpolitics.com, Politico, Roll Call, Washington Examiner, The American Interest, Utne Reader, Campaigns and Elections Magazine, American Experiment Quarterly, Washington Times, The Rothenberg Political Report, Business Today, Election Politics, Business Ethics Magazine, San Francisco Examiner, Washington Insider, and American Commonwealth.

His regular op ed columns and other commentary in print, and on the internet, are distributed through the Preludium News Service. His blog ‘The Prairie Editor” has an international readership and appears on his website at www.barrycasselman.com .

He was a political analyst for WCCO-AM (CBS) for several years, for KSJN-AM (Public Radio International), and for KUOM-AM (National Public Radio). He has also broadcast on RAE in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and beginning in 2000, he produced and broadcast for Voice of America. In 2006, he presented news commentary on LBC, the independent 24-hour news radio network in London, England. He also provided election night analysis in 2006 for Minnesota Public Radio. In 2008, he returned to WCCO-AM for periodic national election commentary. Beginning in 2011, he began weekly commentary on the 2012 presidential campaign on a national radio podcast program originating in Dallas, TX.

Casselman was the original host of “Talk To Your City” on the Minneapolis Television Network, and was a frequent political commentator for KTCA-TV (PBS). In 1992 and 1994, he presented election night analysis for the Conus coast-to-coast All News Channel. In 1996, he provided live coverage from the presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire for All News Channel nationwide. He has also appeared on C-SPAN. In 2008, he was interviewed by ABC-TV Evening News with Charles Gibson.

He has covered national presidential primaries, caucuses and straw polls since 1976, and attended Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1988. He has traveled throughout the United States to report on significant political events, including the national congressional debate in Williamsburg in 1996, the presidential debates, national conventions and events of the Democratic Leadership Council, Democratic National Committee, Republican National Committee, United We Stand America, Reform Party, National Governors Association, NAACP, AFL-CIO, Christian Coalition, CPAC, Green Party and the Independence Party.

In 2012, he was invited to be a civilian participant in the 58th annual seminar on national security at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, PA. Also in 2012, he was a speaker at the Jefferson Educational Society's Global Summit IV. At that event, he received the Thomas Hagen "Dignitas" Award for lifetime achievement.

From 1990-2011, he was the executive director of the non-profit International Conference Foundation, and hosted more than 500 world leaders, foreign journalists and other international visitors. At the non-partisan Foundation, he also organized four national symposia: the first on low-income housing with then-HUD Secretary Jack Kemp; the second, a highly-acclaimed conference on “Locating the New Political Center in America” with Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and leading spokespersons of the Clinton administration as well as newly-emerged independent groups; the third, a symposium on public communications with then-Governor Tom Ridge, former White House press secretary Mike McCurry, Tony Blankley and other national figures; and in 2003, a symposium on homeland security with Secretary Ridge and leading local and national experts. During this time, he also organized numerous smaller conferences, tours and events for the U.S. Information Agency and the U.S. Department of State for its International Visitor Program and its Foreign Press Center programs. In 2008, he organized a special program for international media and visitors attending the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. The Foundation also sponsored programs presenting domestic and international authors and their books.

In 2007, Mr. Casselman helped create and plan the nationally-broadcast and podcast dialogue between former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at the Cooper Union in New York City, and he continued to work on related debate and public policy discussion projects in the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Mr. Casselman has been a lecturer on public policy at Princeton University’s annual international business conferences in New York, and its regional conferences in Chicago since 2005; He also has been a guest lecturer at George Washington University, Carleton College, The Chautauqua (NY) Institution, Gannon University, Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Santa Barbara City College, University of St. Thomas, Metropolitan State University, Augsburg College, University of Minnesota, Jefferson Educational Society, and on the international voyages of the Queen Elizabeth 2, Sagafjord, Vistafjord and Royal Viking Sun. He has made presentations on journalism and the arts at Carleton College, University of Minnesota, College of St. Catherine, Minneapolis College of Art and Design, Walker Art Center, Metropolitan State University, Mercyhurst College and the Brazilian Writers Union in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

His non-fiction book North Star Rising was published in 2007 by Pogo Press, an imprint of Finney Company. In 2008, Pogo Press published Minnesota Souvenir, Casselman’s history and visitor guide for the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul. He was editor and co-author of the book Taking Turns: Political Stalemate or a New Direction in the Race for 2012, a preview of that year's national election.

He has been cited in Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics and in William Safire’s Political Dictionary. Casselman has invented a number of political words and phrases which are now in frequent usage, and listed in various online dictionaries.

He is also a widely-published American poet, short story writer and playwright whose work has been translated and published in Europe, South America and Asia. He is the author of four published books of literary prose and poetry. His work has been frequently anthologized. Two of his plays, in collaboration with composer Randall Davidson, have been performed by the Actors Theater of St. Paul, Minnesota Orchestra, St. Donat’s Ensemble of Wales, and by independent productions at the Union Depot in St. Paul and the Foss Theater at Augsburg College in Minneapolis. He has provided original texts for two award-winning experimental films, as well as texts for other independent short films and videos.

Barry Casselman was born in Erie, Pennsylvania. He received his B.A. with major honors from the University of Pennsylvania and his M.F.A. at the Writers Workshop at the University of Iowa. He has also studied in Paris, and attended the University of Madrid. He now lives in Minneapolis.

Monday, August 10, 2015

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Carly, John And Chris

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