barrycasselman: THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: It Was Unthinkiable

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: It Was Unthinkiable

It was unthinkable until now that Hillary Clinton would not
be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016. It had been
unthinkable in 2007 that she would not win in 2008, but the
unthinkable did happen. This, of course, made the unthinkable
even more unthinkable in 2015. Surely, any observer could
reasonably conclude, she would not make the same mistakes
again.

As I write this, Mrs. Clinton dominates the polling for her party’s
nomination by a very wide margin. She defeats any visible
Republican opponent in almost every poll (although her margins
have been slipping noticeably in recent days.) She has been until
just now the frontrunner’s idea of a frontrunner, and no one
since Dwight Eisenhower has seemed more inevitable for a party
nomination in a race for president with no incumbent running.

Nevertheless, Mrs. Clinton’s candidacy is now in some trouble.
The furor over her use of a private e-mail while she was U.S.
secretary of state will almost certainly pass, but it certainly
should have passed sooner. While prima facie improper, it is not
in itself (with the information we now have) disqualifying.

It might be important to note that Mrs. Clinton’s problem is not
about making new political mistakes. Her biggest problems seem
to be about what she cannot now control or explain away, that is,
actions in her long record as a public figure. While it seemed to be
a clever strategy for her (and her husband, the former president) to
design in 2008-09, that is, to accept the position of secretary of
state in the Obama administration, her performance in that office,
and under that president, seems to have reopened and magnified
political weaknesses from her past, including her record of
judgment, her propensity for secrecy, her dependence on others
to cover up her mistakes, and the untransparent institution and
controversies of the giant Clinton Foundation which she now
heads with her husband.

It is possible, of course, that Hillary Clinton can still be the
Democratic nominee for president; and even possible that
Republicans will make such a mess of their current opportunity
so that she wins the presidency next November. There is no
incontrovertible evidence in the polls that she cannot still win.

But it is becoming clear that her Republican opponents will have
much from Mrs. Clinton’s past and present to bring up to the
voters, and should the unthinkable happen, i.e., a bitter
nomination contest in which case there would be much her
potential opponents from her own party could use against her,
With former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley now moving
toward a Democratic nomination contest; Massachusetts
Senator Elizabeth Warren already quite popular in the party’s
grass roots base; Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders also making
noises to her left; former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, a
populist, waiting in the wings; a very possibly formidable
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo also in the wings; and Vice
President Joe Biden desperate for a good reason to stay in the
race; the chemistry of the 2016 race for the Democratic
nomination could become a genuine contest in a short period of
time.

I point out to the reader how quickly Wisconsin Governor Scott
Walker has emerged as a first tier candidate in the GOP contest;
how quickly New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has (at least
temporarily) faded in the polls. (I might add, how quickly he could
re-emerge once the debates begin.) With almost a year until the
primaries and caucuses, the Republican contest is clearly
unsettled. In the face of Mrs. Clinton’s weak performance so far,
the general lack of true enthusiasm for her nomination, and now
the recurring controversies, it might be very soon that the
Democratic contest could be also considered unsettled.

Until now, it was unthinkable to say that Hilary Clinton’s
nomination was not “a done deal.” There might still be a deal
done on her behalf, she might yet still be president, but I think
there are some very smart Democratic leaders and strategists
now suddenly at least thinking about the unthinkable.

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Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

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About Barry Casselman

BARRY CASSELMAN is an author, journalist and lecturer who has reported and analyzed American presidential and national politics since 1972.

He founded, edited and published his first newspaper when he was 29. He has been a contributor to many national publications, including The Weekly Standard, realclearpolitics.com, Politico, Roll Call, Washington Examiner, The American Interest, Utne Reader, Campaigns and Elections Magazine, American Experiment Quarterly, Washington Times, The Rothenberg Political Report, Business Today, Election Politics, Business Ethics Magazine, San Francisco Examiner, Washington Insider, and American Commonwealth.

His regular op ed columns and other commentary in print, and on the internet, are distributed through the Preludium News Service. His blog ‘The Prairie Editor” has an international readership and appears on his website at www.barrycasselman.com .

He was a political analyst for WCCO-AM (CBS) for several years, for KSJN-AM (Public Radio International), and for KUOM-AM (National Public Radio). He has also broadcast on RAE in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and beginning in 2000, he produced and broadcast for Voice of America. In 2006, he presented news commentary on LBC, the independent 24-hour news radio network in London, England. He also provided election night analysis in 2006 for Minnesota Public Radio. In 2008, he returned to WCCO-AM for periodic national election commentary. Beginning in 2011, he began weekly commentary on the 2012 presidential campaign on a national radio podcast program originating in Dallas, TX.

Casselman was the original host of “Talk To Your City” on the Minneapolis Television Network, and was a frequent political commentator for KTCA-TV (PBS). In 1992 and 1994, he presented election night analysis for the Conus coast-to-coast All News Channel. In 1996, he provided live coverage from the presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire for All News Channel nationwide. He has also appeared on C-SPAN. In 2008, he was interviewed by ABC-TV Evening News with Charles Gibson.

He has covered national presidential primaries, caucuses and straw polls since 1976, and attended Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1988. He has traveled throughout the United States to report on significant political events, including the national congressional debate in Williamsburg in 1996, the presidential debates, national conventions and events of the Democratic Leadership Council, Democratic National Committee, Republican National Committee, United We Stand America, Reform Party, National Governors Association, NAACP, AFL-CIO, Christian Coalition, CPAC, Green Party and the Independence Party.

In 2012, he was invited to be a civilian participant in the 58th annual seminar on national security at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, PA. Also in 2012, he was a speaker at the Jefferson Educational Society's Global Summit IV. At that event, he received the Thomas Hagen "Dignitas" Award for lifetime achievement.

From 1990-2011, he was the executive director of the non-profit International Conference Foundation, and hosted more than 500 world leaders, foreign journalists and other international visitors. At the non-partisan Foundation, he also organized four national symposia: the first on low-income housing with then-HUD Secretary Jack Kemp; the second, a highly-acclaimed conference on “Locating the New Political Center in America” with Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and leading spokespersons of the Clinton administration as well as newly-emerged independent groups; the third, a symposium on public communications with then-Governor Tom Ridge, former White House press secretary Mike McCurry, Tony Blankley and other national figures; and in 2003, a symposium on homeland security with Secretary Ridge and leading local and national experts. During this time, he also organized numerous smaller conferences, tours and events for the U.S. Information Agency and the U.S. Department of State for its International Visitor Program and its Foreign Press Center programs. In 2008, he organized a special program for international media and visitors attending the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. The Foundation also sponsored programs presenting domestic and international authors and their books.

In 2007, Mr. Casselman helped create and plan the nationally-broadcast and podcast dialogue between former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at the Cooper Union in New York City, and he continued to work on related debate and public policy discussion projects in the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Mr. Casselman has been a lecturer on public policy at Princeton University’s annual international business conferences in New York, and its regional conferences in Chicago since 2005; He also has been a guest lecturer at George Washington University, Carleton College, The Chautauqua (NY) Institution, Gannon University, Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Santa Barbara City College, University of St. Thomas, Metropolitan State University, Augsburg College, University of Minnesota, Jefferson Educational Society, and on the international voyages of the Queen Elizabeth 2, Sagafjord, Vistafjord and Royal Viking Sun. He has made presentations on journalism and the arts at Carleton College, University of Minnesota, College of St. Catherine, Minneapolis College of Art and Design, Walker Art Center, Metropolitan State University, Mercyhurst College and the Brazilian Writers Union in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

His non-fiction book North Star Rising was published in 2007 by Pogo Press, an imprint of Finney Company. In 2008, Pogo Press published Minnesota Souvenir, Casselman’s history and visitor guide for the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul. He was editor and co-author of the book Taking Turns: Political Stalemate or a New Direction in the Race for 2012, a preview of that year's national election.

He has been cited in Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics and in William Safire’s Political Dictionary. Casselman has invented a number of political words and phrases which are now in frequent usage, and listed in various online dictionaries.

He is also a widely-published American poet, short story writer and playwright whose work has been translated and published in Europe, South America and Asia. He is the author of four published books of literary prose and poetry. His work has been frequently anthologized. Two of his plays, in collaboration with composer Randall Davidson, have been performed by the Actors Theater of St. Paul, Minnesota Orchestra, St. Donat’s Ensemble of Wales, and by independent productions at the Union Depot in St. Paul and the Foss Theater at Augsburg College in Minneapolis. He has provided original texts for two award-winning experimental films, as well as texts for other independent short films and videos.

Barry Casselman was born in Erie, Pennsylvania. He received his B.A. with major honors from the University of Pennsylvania and his M.F.A. at the Writers Workshop at the University of Iowa. He has also studied in Paris, and attended the University of Madrid. He now lives in Minneapolis.

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: It Was Unthinkiable

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