The new year approaches, and the usual (brief) quiet news
time has arrived. The world, however, seethes with activity,
change and uncertainty. Here is a potpourri of news stories
gestating to the new year ahead:
CHINA FLEXES HER REGIONAL AMBITIONS:
Having declared a flying zone over disputed
territories with Japan, the U.S. air force has ignored
a “requirement” that the planes of other nations
register with Chinese authorities. Japan has likewise
said it will ignore the “declaration.” A Ukrainian
ship refashioned into a primitive “aircraft carrier” for
the Chinese navy is also cruising around the Pacific,
presumably for self-congratulatory public relations
on TV back in China. At the same time, when the huge
typhoon disaster hit the Philippines, China only sent a
tiny donation for relief while many other nations
poured in food, other supplies, medicine and
personnel. The new Chinese leadership apparently
has not formulated a lucid foreign policy.
A “DEAL” BETWEEN THE U.S. AND OTHER POWERS
WITH IRAN IS A DUBIOUS SHORT-TERM TRIAL:
A six-month arrangement intended to slow down
Iranian development of nuclear weaponry capability
has been signed over the protest of Israel, Saudi Arabia
and other Middle East nations not allied with Tehran.
Ignoring its long-time Israeli ally, the U.S., led by President
Obama, is apparently rearranging relationships in the
region. Very few observers expect Iran to keep its end of
the “deal” in which it has received some relief of the
economic blockade from which it has been reeling. By
executive order, Mr. Obama also released about $8 billion
in Iranian assets seized previously by the U.S. Some
unintended consequences, however, are bringing Israel into
potential cooperation with “enemy” Saudi Arabia, as already
exists between the Jewish state and the new military regime
in Egypt (another former ally of the U.S. apparently being
abandoned by the Obama administration). Turkish ambitions
combined with the ongoing Syrian civil war, as well as
emerging Kurdish assertions, should make the Middle East
region quite eventful in 2014.
MEDICAL CARE REFORM KNOW AS “OBAMACARE”
CONTINUES TO FACE SERIOUS PROBLEMS AT THE
OUTSET OF ITS IMPLEMENTATION IN THE U.S.:
Website and computer sign-up “roll-outs” were, and continue
to be, a public relations disaster. Assuming that these technical
problems will be “fixed” by early next year, the program itself
faces inherent economic contradictions as reactions from
insurees, drug companies, hospitals, physicians and other
institutions could threaten the sustainability of the legislation.
Beyond that, the political aftermath already is signaling a
negative election “wave” against the national Democratic
Party which pushed the legislation through. Their plan has
not ever enjoyed public popularity. Almost overnight, and
following a government shutdown forced by the Republicans
(which caused GOP prospects in 2014 to fade), incumbent
Democratic senators thought to be “safe” for re-election are
seen as suddenly vulnerable in polls. Initial conservative
hopes that its party could pick up 6-7 senate seats, were
subsequently scaled back to 2-3, but now that the focus in on
Obamacare, the number of pick-ups could reach 10-12 seats.
(Recent polls in Colorado [Udall] and Virginia [Warner] are
signaling the dimensions of the potential disaster for the
Democrats at the polls in 2014.)
ALMOST INVISIBLY, THE U.S. IS DEVELOPING A
REMARKABLE SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN GAS AND OIL
BY FINALLY DEVELOPING ITS RESERVES.
The impact of this likely will alter the American previous
dependency on Middle Eastern, Venezuelan and Mexican
supplies, the geopolitical consequences of which could be
enormous.
MEDICAL AND OTHER TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH
AND DEVELOPMENT QUIETLY IS ABOUT TO
CHANGE THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT ONCE AGAIN:
Nanotechnology, graphene development, genome research,
and numerous other areas of innovation are about to
“change the world” once again, and at a much faster
velocity than earlier patterns of change. How this change
can be absorbed and integrated in so short a time might be
the greatest challenge. At the same time, precipitated by
earlier innovation, new dangers and threats have arisen,
including most seriously, the so-called “post-antibiotic”
era in which the ability of antibiotic medicines are no longer
able to control or cure disease. As humans develop
resistance to virtually all the antibiotic medicines of the
past, the possibility of serious outbreaks of hitherto
curable diseases and plagues become problematic. The
question to be answered: Will the developed world, with its
immense scientific resources, be able to develop and
distribute “post-antibiotic” medications in time?
FINALLY, THE “NEWS” WHICH USUALLY CANNOT
BE PREDICTED:
In the year coming, and beyond, there is ALWAYS the
“unexpected.” Sunspots? Comets heading our way?
Earthquakes, volcanos, typhoons, hurricanes, tidal waves,
even the shocking possibility of global cooling (in place of
its now ballyhooed opposite), national revolutions in unlikely
places--- there are always surprises which our little planet and its
inhabitants manage to spring on us.
All we can do, then, is be thankful for the many blessings we
now have and enjoy. Hope and resolve are the best antidotes
to fear of the future.
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Copyright (c) 2013 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.
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