With less than a month to go before the Iowa caucus, and after almost
a year of campaign preliminaries, the race for the Republican nomination
for president will now seem to move quickly. This appears to be the
psychological rule: As the moment of voting approaches, the velocity of
events and perceived time increases noticeably.
This has not been a cycle that has been kind to conventional wisdom. Now
the most persistent example of this kind of thinking, that is, that Mitt
Romney’s poll numbers have been constant and will lead to his victory,
will be tested. It is undeniable that the former Massachusetts governor
and persistent 2012 frontrunner’s poll numbers have fluctuated within a
relatively narrow range in lower double digits (15-25%) in most polls to this
date, but what will happen now that actual voting results are posted and
disseminated?
A lot may depend on the Iowa caucus results. Either a win for Romney or his
latest major challenger, Newt Gingrich, could set a quick resolution of the GOP
contest into motion, with unstoppable momentum building from Iowa, New
Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. A third outcome, a not impossible
win in Iowa by Ron Paul, would make Iowa more or less irrelevant to the
final outcome, and lead only one week later to New Hampshire having even
more influence than usual, probably helping Mr. Romney more than his rivals
because of his current big lead in that state.
Mr. Gingrich has been riding a huge wave in recent days, but as any surfer will
tell you, the greater the wave, the greater the risk of falling. Mr. Gingrich needs
a win in Iowa, or at the least, he needs to finish ahead of Mr. Romney in Iowa.
Considering the newly-energized Romney Iowa campaign effort, and Mr.
Gingrich’s lack (until now) of a serious organization in that state, the explosion
upward of Mr. Gingrich’s poll numbers across the nation could begin to bust
if high expectations are not realized in the first state to actually vote in the
presidential race.
The facts on the ground are well-known. Mr. Romney is a familiar face in Iowa,
having competed there in 2008, winning the 2007 straw poll and coming in
second in the 2008 caucus voting to Mike Huckabee (the surprise winner).
Until recently he had not activated his Iowa organization, but he has the
contacts, staff and funds to raise this organization from dormancy. Ron Paul not
only competed heavily in 2008 in Iowa, he has developed a loyal and noticeable
statewide effort for 2012; His political base in Iowa, a caucus state, has more
potential impact than any of his efforts in a primary state where sheer
numbers prevail over intensity and loyalty. Mr. Paul’s poll numbers in Iowa
have continued to be strong, and if his campaign here is not overshadowed by
a strong (but late) Romney push, or the surge for Mr. Gingrich, he could
conceivably win the Iowa caucus. Considering Mr. Paul’s isolationist foreign
policy views, and his narrow libertarian preoccupations, it is difficult to imagine
where his campaign could go next for anything more than a third, fourth or
worse finish in subsequent primaries.
Mr. Gingrich’s name is well-known in Iowa, partly from his years as speaker of
the House in Congress, and from his frequent appearances in the state during
the past year. But his incipient organization here was placed on hold earlier in
the year when most of his campaign staff resigned. The secret to success in the
Iowa caucus has always been organization. That is the nature of any caucus state
where only the most interested voters turn out. Mr. Gingrich in recent weeks has
been beefing up his organizational efforts in New Hampshire and South Carolina,
both good longer-term strategies, but only now, with less than a month to go, is
he attempting to transform his surge in the polls in Iowa into election night
success. Complicating his efforts are the campaigns of Michele Bachmann,
Rick Perry and Rick Santorum, each of whom have created active organizations
in Iowa.
Conventional wisdom does not look kindly to Mr. Gingrich’s prospects, then, in
Iowa. On the other hand, he is now enjoying a surge not only in the polls, but in
his fundraising (which had been lagging all summer), he does have some key Iowa
endorsements, and he has consistently campaigned in Iowa over the past year.
The bottom line is that he needs to finish ahead of Mr. Romney in Iowa, do well
in New Hampshire, and begin winning primaries in South Carolina and Florida.
An alternative scenario to the it’s-all-over-after-Florida hypothesis, is that no
one candidate develops overwhelming momentum the first month, and a replay
of the 2008 Democratic nomination race calendar takes place, with the two
leading 2012 GOP candidates fighting it out all the way to the Tampa
convention next September, or to the end of the primaries in June. That is a
scenario little discussed so far, but it would be the consequence of Republican
voters not making a decision, as they usually do, in the first month or so of the
primary/caucus season.
We'll know which scenario will prevail soon enough.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright (c) 2011 by Barry Casselman
All rights reserved.
NEW OP ED
by Barry Casselman
With less than a month to go before the Iowa caucus, and after almost
a year of campaign preliminaries, the race for the Republican nomination
for president will now seem to move quickly. This appears to be the
psychological rule: As the moment of voting approaches, the velocity of
events and perceived time increases noticeably.
This has not been a cycle that has been kind to conventional wisdom. Now
the most persistent example of this kind of thinking, that is, that Mitt
Romney’s poll numbers have been constant, will be tested. It is undeniable
that the former Massachusetts governor and perennnial 2012 frontrunner’s
poll numbers have fluctuated within a relatively narrow range in lower double
digits (!5-25%) in most polls to this date, but what will happen now that
actual voting results are posted and disseminated?
A lot may depend on the Iowa caucu results.Either a win for Romney or his
ltest major challenger, Newt Gingirch, could set a quick resolution of the GOP
contest into motion, with unstoppable momentum building from Iowa, New
Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. A third outcome, a not impossible
win in Iowa by Ron Paul, would make Iowa more or less irrelevant to the
final outcome, and lead only one week later to New Hampshire having even
more influence than usual, probably helping Mr. Romney more than his rivals
because of his current big lead in that state.
Mr. Gingrich has been riding a huge wave in recent days, but as any surfer will
tell you, the greater the wave, the greater the risk of falling. Mr. Gingrich needs
a wiin in Iowa, or at the least, he needs to finish ahead of Mr. Romney in Iowa.
Considering the newly-energized Romney campaign effort in Iowa, and Mr.
Gingrich’s lack until now of a serious organization in that state, the exploion
upward of Mr. Gingrich’s poll numbers across the nation coud begin to bust
if high expectations are not realized int he first state to actually vote in the
presidential race.
The facts on the ground are well-known. Mr. Romney is well-known in Iowa,
having competed there in 2008, winning the 2007 straw poll and coming in
secnd in the 2008 caucus vtoting to Mike Huckabee (the surprise winner).
Until now he has not activated his Iowa organizatin, but he has the contacts,
staff and funds to raise this organizatin from dormancy. Ron Paul not only
compted havily in 2008 in Iowa, he has developed a loyal and noticeable
statewide effort for 2012; His political base in Iowa, a caucus state, has more
potential impact than any of his efforts in a primary state where sheer
numbers prevail over intensity and loyalty. Mr. Paul’ poll numbers in Iowa
have continued to be strong, and if his campaign here is not overhadowed by
a strong (but late) Romney push, or the surge for Mr. Gingrich, he could
conceivaby win the Iowa caucus. Considering Mr. Paul’s isolaitionist foreign
policy views, and his narrow libertarian preoccupations, it is difficult to imagine
where his campaign could go next for anyting more than a third, fourth or worse
finish in subsequrent primaries.
Mr. Gingrich’s nme is well-known in Iowa, partly from his years as speaker of
the House in Congress, and from his frequent appearances in the state during
the past year. But his incipient organization here was placed on hold earlier in
the year when most of his campaing staff resigned. The secret to success in the
Iowa caucus has always been orgainzation. That is the nature of any caucus state
where only the most interested voters turn out. Mr. Gingrich in recent weeks has
been beefing up his organizational efforts in New Hampshire and South Carolina,
both good longer-term strategies, but only now, with less than a month to go, is
he attempting to transform his surge in the polls in Iowa into election night
success. Complicating his efforts are the campaigns of Michele Bachmann,
Rick Perry and Rick Santorum, each of whom have been making active campaigns
to do well in Iowa, and who are better organized to do so.
Conventional wisdom does not look kindly to Mr. Gingrich’s prospcts, then, in
Iowa. On the other hand, he is now enjoying a surge not only in the polls, but in
his fundraising (which had been lagging all summer), he does have some key Iowa
endorsements, and he has consistently campaigned in Iowa over the past year.
The borrim line is that he needs to finish ahead of Mr. Romney in Iowa, do well
in New Hampshire, and begin winning primareies in South Carolina and Florida.
An akternative scenario to the it’s-all-over-after-Florida hypothesis, is that no
one candidate develops overwhelming momentum the first month, and a replay
of the 2008 Democratic nomination race calendar takes place, with the two
leading 2012 GOP candidates fighting it out all the way to the Tampa
convention next September, or to the end of the primaries in June. That is a
scenario little discussed so far, but it would be the consequence of Republican
voters not making a decision, as it usually does, in the first month or so of the
primary/caucus season.
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