Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Don’t Look Now, But...

My contrarian nature has been resisting confirming the new conventional wisdom that November will bring very large Republican gains in U.S. house, U.S. senate, gubernatorial and state legislative races across the nation. Of course, I was among the earliest to forecast the GOP trend, when it was not so conventional, but now that it is, I have been wary.

Now I have a new contrarian view which I will state here, and then over the next seven weeks describe in detail, race by race (I will leave the detail, precinct by precinct, to my friend, Michael Barone who can do that as no one else in America can.). [NOTE: I do not mean to imply that he agrees with me on my prediction.]

A caveat (there is always at least one caveat in this business): While there is no longer anything President Obama and his Democratic leadership colleagues can do to salvage their impending defeat by perhaps historic dimensions, there are always unexpected historical events, domestic or international, which can appear at the last minute, and change public attitudes in the short term.

Lacking one of those traumatic events, the defeat of the Democrats is inevitable. Conventional wisdom now has it that GOP gains will be substantial, possibly leading to taking narrow control of the house of representatives. After alternating between bravado and caution, I now see that the voters are in such an aroused and negative mood that they are going to deliver an historic rebuke to Mr. Obama, his radical agenda, and his Democratic accomplices.

This means that virtually all of the still close house and senate seats will be turned over to the Republicans. It also means that several house and some of the remaining up-for-election-this-year senate seats considered “safe” for the Democrats will be lost. Republicans will win even more governorships and take control of more state legislatures than even now predicted. It is slated to be the most historic political reversal in modern American history.

All fingers point to Barack Obama as the prime cause for such an outcome. (Sorry, Mr. President, but the buck DOES stop with you.)

This is just my opinion, at this point, and I could be wrong. I have a track record I’m very proud of in these matters, but I hasten to point out that past performance in political prognostication, as in stock market forecasts, is often illusory when making predictions about events which have not yet taken place.

So watch this space over the coming weeks for examples of the political movement I now see in full flower. Please stay tuned in.

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