A private poll commissioned by a major DFL candidate
for next year’s open U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota
revealed that the contest, previously thought to be safe
for the liberal party is likely to be very competitive if the
Republican Party runs a strong candidate for the post.
Incumbent DFL Senator Tina Smith earlier announced
she would not be running for re-election. The DFL has
controlled both U.S. Senate seats in Minnesota, as well
as the other statewide elected offices for more than a
decade, The Gopher State has been throughout this
period been considered a solid blue state.
Recently, however, GOP candidates have been winning
more and more state legislative seats, and the
conservative party holds four of the state’s congressional
seats. Recent polls also indicate that incumbent governor
Tim Walz faces a serious challenge for re-election from
his Republican opponent in 2025.
As is the case in many midwestern states, Republicans
are strong in rural areas and small towns, and Democrats
(DFLers) win big in large urban areas. The large DFL
majorities in Minneapolis and St. Paul have in recent
years exceeded the outstate GOP majorities.
U.S. Senate elections, especially competitive ones.
require raising large amounts of money, and previous to
the news of the leaked private poll, no serious Republican
candidate had formally entered the race.
But two potentially serious candidates have been
discussed. Nationally known local sports broadcaster
Michele Tafoya and St. Paul business figure John Taft
have been urged to run by some GOP party aciivists.
Each of them could raise substantial campaign funds.
Taft is the great-grandson of President William Howard
Taft and the grandson of the legendary Senator Robert
Taft. A successful businessman, he could self-fund
his campaign . Tafoya is a well-known personality.
DFLers already have two major candidates vying for
their party’s nomination. Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan
was the first to announce. Second District
Congresswoman Angie Craig is also in the race.
Rep. Craig has been called the favorite by many
political observers to win the DFL nomination
and election in November, 2026.
If the private poll numbers published in the Alpha News
blog are accurate, however, the Minnesota U.S. Senate
race could be too close to call at this time.
A factor which might also impact next year’s races in
Minnesota could be the outcome of this year’s
mayoral race in Minneapolis, the site of the largest
part of the DFL voter base. In this, the state’s
most populous city, the DFL is deeply divided between
the liberal incumbent mayor and his radical neo-socialist
challengers.
Depending on the outcome of this race, less than four
weeks from now, the DFL’s recent history of the much
superior voter ID and get-out-the-vote operations
might be at risk.
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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.
